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Year
Refresh
20 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall: Stärken, Schwächen und Herausforderungen des ostdeutschen Innovationssystems heute
Jutta Günther, Katja Wilde, Marco Sunder, Mirko Titze
Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem Nr. 17-2010, 2010
Abstract
Der Beitrag geht zwanzig Jahre nach dem Fall der Mauer der Frage nach, welchen Entwicklungsstand das ostdeutsche Innovationssystem erreicht hat. Der Vergleich von Indikatoren der Innovationskraft in Ost- und Westdeutschland zeigt die hohe Bedeutung öffentlicher Forschung und Entwicklung in den Neuen Bundesländern. Private Ausgaben in diesem Bereich liegen in Ostdeutschland indes deutlich unter dem Bundesdurchschnitt, was zum großen Teil wirtschaftsstrukturellen Unterschieden zuzuschreiben ist. Einen Erfolgsfaktor stellte in den Neuen Bundesländern bislang das reichhaltige Angebot an gut ausgebildeten Fachkräften dar. Mit dem demographischen Wandel zeichnen sich auf diesem Gebiet jedoch Risiken ab, die innovative Rationalisierungskonzepte erfordern werden.
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Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 2, 2010
published in:
Journal of Policy Modeling
Abstract
While the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In the present paper we use a multivariate state space framework, that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach, to analyze the short run impact of money on prices. We contribute to the literature in three ways: First, we distinguish changes in velocity of money that are due to institutional developments and thus do not induce inflationary pressure, and changes that reflect transitory movements in money demand. This is achieved with a newly developed multivariate unobserved components decomposition. Second, we analyze whether the high volatility of the transmission from monetary pressure to inflation follows some structure, i.e., if the parameter regime can assumed to be constant. Finally, we use our model to illustrate the consequences of the monetary policy of the Fed that has been employed to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis, simulating different exit strategy scenarios.
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Stochastic Income Statement Planning and Emissions Trading
Henry Dannenberg, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 4, 2010
published in:
Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management
Abstract
Since the introduction of the European CO2 emissions trading system (EU ETS), the development of CO2 allowance prices is a new risk factor for enterprises taking part in this system. In this paper, we analyze how risk emerging from emissions trading can be considered in the stochastic profit and loss planning of corporations. Therefore we explore which planned figures are affected by emissions trading. Moreover, we show a way to model these positions in a planned profit and loss account accounting for uncertainties and dependencies. Consequently, this model provides a basis for risk assessment and investment decisions in the uncertain environment of CO2 emissions trading.
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Is there a Superior Distance Function for Matching in Small Samples?
Eva Dettmann, Claudia Becker, Christian Schmeißer
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 3, 2010
published in:
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Abstract
The study contributes to the development of ’standards’ for the application of matching algorithms in empirical evaluation studies. The focus is on the first step of the matching procedure, the choice of an appropriate distance function. Supplementary o most former studies, the simulation is strongly based on empirical evaluation ituations. This reality orientation induces the focus on small samples. Furthermore, ariables with different scale levels must be considered explicitly in the matching rocess. The choice of the analysed distance functions is determined by the results of former theoretical studies and recommendations in the empirical literature. Thus, in the simulation, two balancing scores (the propensity score and the index score) and the Mahalanobis distance are considered. Additionally, aggregated statistical distance functions not yet used for empirical evaluation are included. The matching outcomes are compared using non-parametrical scale-specific tests for identical distributions of the characteristics in the treatment and the control groups. The simulation results show that, in small samples, aggregated statistical distance functions are the better choice for summarising similarities in differently scaled variables compared to the commonly used measures.
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An Evolutionary Algorithm for the Estimation of Threshold Vector Error Correction Models
Makram El-Shagi
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 1, 2010
published in:
International Economics and Economic Policy
Abstract
We develop an evolutionary algorithm to estimate Threshold Vector Error Correction models (TVECM) with more than two cointegrated variables. Since disregarding a threshold in cointegration models renders standard approaches to the estimation of the cointegration vectors inefficient, TVECM necessitate a simultaneous estimation of the cointegration vector(s) and the threshold. As far as two cointegrated variables are considered this is commonly achieved by a grid search. However, grid search quickly becomes computationally unfeasible if more than two variables are cointegrated. Therefore, the likelihood function has to be maximized using heuristic approaches. Depending on the precise problem structure the evolutionary approach developed in the present paper for this purpose saves 90 to 99 per cent of the computation time of a grid search.
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Human Capital and Fertility in Germany after 1990: Evidence from a Multi-Spell Model
Marco Sunder
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2009
Abstract
We analyze the timing of birth of the first three children based on German panel data (GSOEP) within a hazard rate framework. A random effects estimator is used to accommodate correlation across spells. We consider the role of human capital – approximated by a Mincer-type regression – and its gender-specific effects on postponement of parenthood and possible recuperation at higherorder births. An advantage of the use of panel data in this context consists in its prospective nature, so that determinants of fertility can be measured when at risk rather than ex-post, thus helping to reduce the risk of reverse causality. The analysis finds evidence for strong recuperation effects, i.e., women with greater human capital endowments follow, on average, a different birth history trajectory, but with negligible curtailment of completed fertility.
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Macroeconomic Shocks and Banks' Foreign Assets
Claudia M. Buch, K. Carstensen, A. Schertler
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, No. 1, 2010
Abstract
Recent developments in international financial markets have highlighted the role of banks in the transmission of shocks across borders. We employ dynamic panel methods for a sample of OECD countries to analyze whether banks' foreign assets react to macroeconomic shocks at home and abroad. We find that banks reduce their foreign assets in response to a relative increase in domestic interest rates, and they increase their foreign assets when the growth rate of world energy prices rises. The responses are characterized by a temporal overshooting and a dynamic adjustment process that extends over several quarters.
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Monopsonistic Labour Markets and the Gender Pay Gap: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Boris Hirsch
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, No. 639, 2010
Abstract
This book investigates models of spatial and dynamic monopsony and their application to the persistent empirical regularity of the gender pay gap. Theoretically, the main conclusion is that employers possess more monopsony power over their female employees if women are less driven by pecuniary considerations in their choice of employers than men. Employers may exploit this to increase their profits at the detriment of women’s wages. Empirically, it is indeed found that women’s labour supply to the firm is less wage-elastic than men’s and that at least a third of the gender pay gap in the data investigated may result from employers engaging in monopsonistic discrimination. Therefore, a monopsonistic approach to gender discrimination in the labour market clearly contributes to the economic understanding of the gender pay gap. It not only provides an intuitively appealing explanation of the gap from standard economic reasoning, but it is also corroborated by empirical observation.
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Schuldenabbau ja - aber wie?
Ulrich Blum
Wirtschaftsdienst, No. 9, 2009
Abstract
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Capital Stock Approximation with the Perpetual Inventory Method: STATA Code for the IAB Establishment Panel
Steffen Müller
FDZ-Methodenreport, H. 02, No. 2, 2010
Abstract
The IAB Establishment Panel contains no direct information on establishments’ capital stock. This report presents some advice in implementing a capital stock approximation by the perpetual inventory method as proposed by Müller (2008). STATA code is provided in the appendix.
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