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Year
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Skill Mismatch and the Costs of Job Displacement
Frank Neffke, Ljubica Nedelkoska, Simon Wiederhold
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 11, 2023
published in:
Research Policy
Abstract
Establishment closures have lasting negative consequences for the workers they displace from their jobs. We study how these consequences vary with the amount of skill mismatch that workers experience after job displacement. Developing new measures of occupational skill redundancy and skill shortage, we analyze the work histories of individuals in Germany between 1975 and 2010. We estimate differencein- differences models, using a sample of displaced workers who are matched to statistically similar non-displaced workers. We find that displacements increase the probability of occupational change eleven-fold. Moreover, the magnitude of postdisplacement earnings losses strongly depends on the type of skill mismatch that workers experience in such job switches. Whereas skill shortages are associated with relatively quick returns to the counterfactual earnings trajectories that displaced workers would have experienced absent displacement, skill redundancy sets displaced workers on paths with permanently lower earnings. We show that these differences can be attributed to differences in mismatch after displacement, and not to intrinsic differences between workers making different post-displacement career choices.
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Long-run Competitive Spillovers of the Credit Crunch
William McShane
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 10, 2023
Abstract
Competition in the U.S. appears to have declined. One contributing factor may have been heterogeneity in the availability of credit during the financial crisis. I examine the impact of product market peer credit constraints on long-run competitive outcomes and behavior among non-financial firms. I use measures of lender exposure to the financial crisis to create a plausibly exogenous instrument for product market credit availability. I find that credit constraints of product market peers positively predict growth in sales, market share, profitability, and markups. This is consistent with the notion that firms gained at the expense of their credit constrained peers. The relationship is robust to accounting for other sources of inter-firm spillovers, namely credit access of technology network and supply chain peers. Further, I find evidence of strategic investment, i.e. the idea that firms increase investment in response to peer credit constraints to commit to deter entry mobility. This behavior may explain why temporary heterogeneity in the availability of credit appears to have resulted in a persistent redistribution of output across firms.
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Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index: A New Employment Series for the US, Canada, and the UK
Ufuk Akcigit, Raman Chhina, Seyit Cilasun, Javier Miranda, Eren Ocakverdi, Nicolas Serrano-Velarde
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2023
Abstract
Small and young businesses are essential for job creation, innovation, and economic growth. Even most of the superstar firms start their business life small and then grow over time. Small firms have less internal resources, which makes them more fragile and sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. This suggests the need for frequent and real-time monitoring of the small business sector’s health. Previously this was difficult due to a lack of appropriate data. This paper fills this important gap by developing a new Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index that focuses on the smallest of small businesses with at most 9 workers in the US and the UK and at most 19 workers in Canada. The Index aggregates a sample of anonymous Quick- Books Online Payroll subscriber data (QBO Payroll sample) from 333,000 businesses in the US, 66,000 in Canada, and 25,000 in the UK. After comparing the QBO Payroll sample data to the official statistics, we remove the seasonal components and use a Flexible Least Squares method to calibrate the QBO Payroll sample data against official statistics. Finally, we use the estimated model and the QBO Payroll sample data to generate a near real-time index of economic activity. We show that the estimated model performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Additionally, we use this analysis for different regions and industries. Keywords:
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Minimum Wages, Productivity, and Reallocation
Mirja Hälbig, Matthias Mertens, Steffen Müller
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 8, 2023
Abstract
We study the productivity effect of the German national minimum wage combining administrative firm datasets. We analyze firm- and market-level effects, considering output price changes, factor substitution, firm entry and exit, labor reallocation, and short- versus long-run effects. We document higher firm productivity even net of output price increases. Productivity gains are persistent in manufacturing and service sectors. The minimum wage also increased manufacturing productivity at the aggregate level. Neither firm entry and exit nor other forms of employment reallocation between firms contributed to these gains. Instead, aggregate productivity gains from the minimum wage solely stem from within-firm productivity improvements.
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The Characteristics and Geographic Distribution of Robot Hubs in U.S. Manufacturing Establishments
Erik Brynjolfsson, Catherine Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, J. Frank Li, Javier Miranda, Robert Seamans
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 7, 2023
published in:
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings
Abstract
We use data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures to study the characteristics and geography of investments in robots across U.S. manufacturing establishments. We find that robotics adoption and robot intensity (the number of robots per employee) is much more strongly related to establishment size than age. We find that establishments that report having robotics have higher capital expenditures, including higher information technology (IT) capital expenditures. Also, establishments are more likely to have robotics if other establishments in the same Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and industry also report having robotics. The distribution of robots is highly skewed across establishments’ locations. Some locations, which we call Robot Hubs, have far more robots than one would expect even after accounting for industry and manufacturing employment. We characterize these Robot Hubs along several industry, demographic, and institutional dimensions. The presence of robot integrators and higher levels of union membership are positively correlated with being a Robot Hub.
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Employment Effects of Investment Grants and Firm Heterogeneity – Evidence from a Staggered Adoption Approach
Eva Dettmann, Mirko Titze, Antje Weyh
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2023
Abstract
This study estimates the establishment-level employment effects of investment grants in Germany. In addition to the average treatment effect for the treated, we focus on discrimination in the funding rules as potential source of effect heterogeneity. We combine the difference-in-differences approach of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) that explicitly models variation in treatment timing with a ties matching at the cohort level. We observe a positive effect of investment grants on employment development in the full sample. The subsample analysis yields strong evidence for effect heterogeneity due to firm characteristics and the economic environment.
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Robots, Occupations, and Worker Age: A Production-unit Analysis of Employment
Liuchun Deng, Steffen Müller, Verena Plümpe, Jens Stegmaier
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 5, 2023
Abstract
We analyse the impact of robot adoption on employment composition using novel micro data on robot use in German manufacturing plants linked with social security records and data on job tasks. Our task-based model predicts more favourable employment effects for the least routine-task intensive occupations and for young workers, with the latter being better at adapting to change. An event-study analysis of robot adoption confirms both predictions. We do not find adverse employment effects for any occupational or age group, but churning among low-skilled workers rises sharply. We conclude that the displacement effect of robots is occupation biased but age neutral, whereas the reinstatement effect is age biased and benefits young workers most.
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Oxytocin, Empathy, Altruism and Charitable Giving: Experimental Evidence from Blood Donations
Irena Jukić, Dejan Kovač, Danijela Vuletić Čugalj
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 4, 2023
Abstract
We conducted a field experiment in the natural setting of blood donations to test how oxytocin relates to empathy and altruism. We randomly assigned blood donors in the Croatian Institute for Transfusion Medicine to three groups with the aim to induce different levels of empathy by showing a neutral video to the donors from the control group and an emotional to the donors from the first and second treatment groups. In addition to watching the emotional video, donors from the second treatment group are given a gift which relates to the emotional story from the video. We find no effect of our treatment on induced levels of oxytocin. Null effects of our treatments could be explained by the above average baseline levels of oxytocin and inability of our treatments to provoke emotional stimuli in blood donors. Nonetheless, for our empathy measures we find the effect of gift exchange on empathic concerns, but not on perspective taking. After our experimental treatments, we followed the return of our blood donors for a whole year. We find that only variable which consistently predicts return for blood donation in stated period is the number of previous donations. From policy perspective it is an important finding. Especially for hospitals and other blood providers when faced with time and resource constraints.
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What Explains International Interest Rate Co-Movement?
Annika Camehl, Gregor von Schweinitz
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 3, 2023
Abstract
We show that global supply and demand shocks are important drivers of interest rate co-movement across seven advanced economies. Beyond that, local structural shocks transmit internationally via aggregate demand channels, and central banks react predominantly to domestic macroeconomic developments: unexpected monetary policy tightening decreases most foreign interest rates, while expansionary local supply and demand shocks increase them. To disentangle determinants of international interest rate co-movement, we use a Bayesian structural panel vector autoregressive model accounting for latent global supply and demand shocks. We identify country-specific structural shocks via informative prior distributions based on a standard theoretical multi-country open economy model.
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Climate Change Concerns and Information Spillovers from Socially-connected Friends
Maximilian Mayer
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 2, 2023
Abstract
This paper studies the role of social connections in shaping individuals’ concerns about climate change. I combine granular climate data, region-level social network data and survey responses for 24 European countries in order to document large information spillovers. Individuals become more concerned about climate change when their geographically distant friends living in sociallyconnected regions have experienced large increases in temperatures since 1990. Exploring the heterogeneity of the spillover effects, I uncover that the learning via social networks plays a central role. Further, results illustrate the important role of social values and economic preferences for understanding how information spillovers affect individual concerns.
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