Smuggling Illegal Goods Across the US–Mexico Border: A Political-economy Perspective
A. Buehn, Stefan Eichler
Applied Economics Letters,
No. 12,
2012
Abstract
We analyse the impact that political business cycles and party preferences have on smuggling illegal goods across the US–Mexico border during the years 1980–2004. We find that smuggling is significantly reduced prior to Congressional elections – but only if the incumbent President is Republican.
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The Distorting Impact of Capital Controls
Makram El-Shagi
German Economic Review,
No. 1,
2012
Abstract
This paper uses panel data to show that capital controls have a significant impact on international interest rate differentials. Various types of controls can be distinguished within the data. The analysis shows that the aforementioned effects of capital controls on interest rates are especially strong in the case of capital import controls on portfolio capital; the implementation of these controls has been suggested in the wake of the Asian Crisis to prevent further crises. The results presented herein contradict the hypothesis that capital controls can achieve a restructuring of the maturity of capital inflows without a distortion in international capital allocation.
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The Effects of Building Energy Codes in Rental Housing: The German Experience
Claus Michelsen, Sebastian Rosenschon
Economics Bulletin,
No. 4,
2012
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of building energy codes on housings' real energy consumption. We argue that building codes should have a twofold effect: lower levels of energy consumption after its implementation and decreasing energy requirements over time, because tighter building codes induce technical progress in the construction sector. We find evidence for both aspects. Based on a large and unique sample of energy certificates from Germany, this study is the first that deals with the empirical effects of energy efficiency standards in apartment/rental housing. Moreover, it is the first, which includes different stages of regulation.
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The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster's Perspective
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Kredit und Kapital,
No. 1,
2012
Abstract
This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany. This recession is very different from previous recessions in particular regarding their causes and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the recession. This study shows that large forecast errors for both expert forecasts and forecasts based on leading indicators resulted during this recession which implies that the recession was very difficult to forecast. However, some leading indicators (survey data, risk spreads, stock prices) have indicated an economic downturn and hence, beat univariate time series models. Although the combination of individual forecasts provides an improvement compared to the benchmark model, the combined forecasts are worse than several individual models. A comparison of expert forecasts withthe best forecasts based on leading indicators shows only minor deviations. Overall, the range for an improvement of expert forecasts in the crisis compared to indicator forecasts is small.
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The Synchronization of Wage Dynamics across EMU Members: A Test of the Endogeneity Hypothesis
Herbert S. Buscher, Hubert Gabrisch
Empirica,
No. 3,
2012
Abstract
We test the hypothesis of an endogenous currency area for the labor market of the Euro area: has the introduction of a common currency caused wage dynamics to become more synchronized and to be able to cushion for asymmetric shocks? Trade intensity, sector specialization and financial integration are tested for being the driving forces for the endogenous synchronization of wage dynamics. We use regression techniques with instrument variables, and find evidence of persistent asymmetries in nominal wage formation, despite a single currency and monetary policy. We explain the result with more specialization following financial integration, and with still existing differences in wage formation and labor market institutions. We conclude that the euro zone is not endogenous with respect to wage formation. Rather, there are incentives for beggar-thy-neighbor policies in the Euro area.
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The Determinants of Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Business Services Across European Regions
Davide Castellani
Finanza e Statistica 104/2012,
2012
Abstract
The paper accounts for the determinants of inward foreign direct investment in business services across the EU-27 regions. Together with the traditional variables considered in the literature (market size, market quality, agglomeration economies, labour cost, technology, human capital), we focus on the role of forward linkages with manufacturing sectors and other service sectors as
attractors of business services FDI at the regional level. This hypothesis is based on the evidence that the growth of business services is mostly due to increasing intermediate demand by other services industries and by manufacturing industries and on the importance of geographical proximity for forward linkages in services.
To our knowledge, there are no studies investigating the role of forward linkages for the location of FDI. This paper aims therefore to fill this gap and add to the FDI literature by providing a picture of the specificities of the determinants of FDI in business services at the regional level. The empirical analysis draws upon the database fDi Markets, from which we selected projects having as a destination NUTS 2 European regions in the sectors of Business services over the period 2003-2008. Data on FDI have been matched with data drawn from the Eurostat Regio
database. Forward linkages have been constructed using the OECD Input/Output database. By estimating a negative binomial model, we find that regions specialised in those (manufacturing) sectors that are high potential users of business services attract more FDI than other regions. This confirms the role of forward linkages for the localisation of business service FDI, particularly in the case of manufacturing.
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IWH Construction Industry Survey August 1998: Down leveling in East German construction industry continues
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
1998
Abstract
Nach den Meldungen der Bauunternehmen hat sich im Spätsommer 1998 die Gesamtkonstellation auf dem ostdeutschen Baumarkt weiter deutlich verschlechtert. Auf die Stimmung wirkte sich aus, dass die Auftragsentwicklung im öffentlichen Bau nach den Impulsen im ersten Quartal nun - mit Ausnahme des Straßenbaus - wieder schwächer geworden war sowie im Wirtschafts- und Wohnungsbau deutlich Kurs auf Fortsetzung der Normalisierung hielt. Diese Tatsache kulminierte zusammen mit hohem Preisdruck, Zahlungsverzögerungen und -ausfällen in einer verstärkten Marktbereinigung.
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IWH Construction Industry Survey April 2002: Spring recovery is driven by civil engineering industry
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2002
Abstract
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IWH Construction Industry Survey April 2001: Spring upswing starts from lower level
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2001
Abstract
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IWH Construction Industry Survey April 2000: Weak spring recovery
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2000
Abstract
Die Stimmung im ostdeutschen Baugewerbe hat sich im April laut Umfrage des IWH - dem Saisonmuster entsprechend - etwas gebessert. Allerdings bleiben alle Sparten mit ihren Wertungen zur Geschäftslage und zu den Geschäftsaussichten deutlich unter Vorjahresniveau.
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