A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany
Oliver Holtemöller, Maike Irrek, Birgit Schultz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2012
Abstract
Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model fea-tures a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.
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Wachstumsprojektion 2025 für die deutschen Länder: Produktion je Einwohner divergiert
Oliver Holtemöller, Maike Irrek
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2012
Abstract
Viele ökonomische Entscheidungen basieren implizit oder explizit auf Projektionen der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in einem Land oder einer Region. In diesem Artikel wird ein langfristiges Projektionsmodell für Deutschland insgesamt und die deutschen Länder vorgestellt, das am IWH entwickelt worden ist. Das Modell beruht auf einer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionsfunktion; die Produktionsfaktoren Arbeit und Kapital sowie die Produktivität werden mit Zeitreihenmodellen fortgeschrieben. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland insgesamt wird in die Teilmodelle für die Länder integriert, und die Annäherung der einzelnen Länder an den Bundestrend wird mit ökonometrischen Verfahren geschätzt. Mit Hilfe des Modells wird eine Projektion der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in Deutschland insgesamt und in den Ländern bis zum Jahr 2025 vorgenommen. Ein wichtiges Resultat ist, dass die ungünstigere demographische Entwicklung in den ostdeutschen Ländern wohl nicht durch weitere Konvergenz der Produktivität und der Kapitalintensität kompensiert werden kann, sodass die Produktion je Einwohner in den ostdeutschen Ländern schwächer zunehmen dürfte als in den westdeutschen Ländern. Zwar verläuft die Entwicklung auch in den westdeutschen
Ländern heterogen, es dürfte aber im Gegensatz zu den ostdeutschen Flächenländern in keinem westdeutschen Land mit heute unterdurchschnittlicher Produktion je Einwohner zu einer spürbaren Vergrößerung des Abstandes zum Bundesdurchschnitt kommen.
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Firm level determinants of innovation: small firms with high potential in East Germany
Jutta Günther, Philipp Marek
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
Innovations in the sense of new products and production processes are crucial drivers of the economic development in advanced economies. After a phase of massive technological renewal in East Germany, characterized by much a higher rate of innovators in East than in West Germany, firms in East Germany have to compete with original innovation activities. The paper outlines the innovation activity in East and West Germany and investigates the determinants of product and process innovation within a multivariate analysis using the IAB establishment panel.
The empirical study shows that firms in manufacturing industry in East Germany are quite active in innovation activities in the year 2008. As regards the share of innovative firms there are no substantial differences between East and West Germany. The regression analysis shows that R&D is a significant determinant of innovation in East and West for all types of innovation. In East Germany, further education activities for employees also show a statistically significant impact on innovation. A major difference between East and West could be found for the firm size. In East Germany size has no significant impact on innovation while in West Germany size clearly matters. Different from West Germany, small firms (10 up to 49 employees) in the East have a significantly positive impact on product innovations in the sense of market novelties.
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Zur Zukunft der Energiepreise: Ergebnisse eines Expertenworkshops am IWH
Sebastian Rosenschon
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
Im Forschungskontext des in der Abteilung Stadtökonomik am IWH durchgeführten Projektes „Energetische Aufwertung und Stadtentwicklung (EASE)“ fand am 10. Dezember 2010 ein Expertenworkshop statt. Ziel des
Workshops war es, die globalen Zusammenhänge im Spannungsfeld zwischen zukünftiger Energienachfrageentwicklung und Energieträgerverfügbarkeit, technologischen Möglichkeiten und den Herausforderungen durch den Klimawandel zu beleuchten. Im Fokus standen dabei die Entwicklung der Energienachfrage der industriell aufstrebenden Nationen China und Indien, die zukünftigen Veränderungen des Energieträgermixes in Deutschland sowie der Einfluss internationaler und nationaler Klimaschutzpolitik. Gemeinsam mit den vortragenden Experten diskutierten Vertreter aus Wissenschaft, Wirtschaft, Verbänden und Politik die zu erwartenden Effekte auf die Entwicklung der Energiepreise.
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Forced to Freedom? Empirical Relations between Aid and Economic Freedom
Tobias Knedlik, Franz Kronthaler
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 8,
2006
Abstract
The paper explores the relationships between economic freedom on the one side and development aid and IMF credit as approximation for conditional aid on the other side. After a short review of current literature on the issue of economic development, economic freedom, aid, and IMF credit, the paper develops a simple panel regression model to evaluate the relationship between “economic freedom” as dependent variable and “aid” and “IMF credit” as independent variables. The estimation is based upon data taken from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and the Heritage Index of Economic Freedom. In contrast to previous research, our results allow the rejection of the hypothesis that IMF credit increases economic freedom and that aid is not contributing to economic freedom. The estimation results suggest that, firstly, aid is positively correlated with economic freedom, and secondly, that IMF credit is negatively correlated with economic freedom. Taking IMF credit as proxy for conditional aid, we conclude that for the period of observation it could not be shown that countries can be forced to economic freedom by aid conditions.
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EU Eastern Enlargement and Structural Change: Specialization Patterns in Accession Countries and Economic Dynamics in the Single Market
Albrecht Kauffmann, P. J. J. Welfens, A. Jungmittag, C. Schumann
Diskussionsbeiträge des Europäischen Instituts für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW), Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Nr. 106,
No. 106,
2003
Abstract
This paper analyses key issues of structural change and specialization patterns in the economies of an enlarged European Union. In all transition countries we observe a shift from the agricultural and industrial sector towards the service sector in terms of employment and productivity; however, in some countries a reindustrialisation drives is observed in a late transition stage. While some countries namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Estonia and Slovenia, have improved their productivity especially in medium-technology-intensive industries and may advance on the technological ladder, others remain unchanged and seem to get locked in labour-intensive industrial sectors. In the context of EU-enlargement, we expect trade creation – going along with a rise of intra-industry trade – and higher FDI-activities. Countries will have to adjust along the logic of comparative advantage, however, technological upgrading and human capital formation are fields in which government can stimulate the direction of comparative advantage. According to the Gerschenkron-hypothesis the accession countries have an “advantage of backwardness. Since accession countries have a low R&D-GDP ratio in the early transition stage rising government expenditures on research and development plus higher education is crucial. We expect the EU-15 countries in general to benefit from enlargement but gains will be asymmetric across countries: economic geography matters. Austria, Germany, the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Italy and France are likely to profit more than the other members of EU-15. Germany and Austria additionally play a particularly crucial role as origins of FDI. Future research should focus on the speed and the scope of structural adjustment.
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