Upturn Remains Robust — Amid Mounting Tensions: Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2017
Externe Monographien,
2017
Abstract
The German economic upturn has gained both in terms of strength and breadth. In addition to consumer spending, external trade and investments are now also contributing to economic expansion. These are the conclusions drawn by the economic research institutes in their autumn report for the German federal government. Whereas the very high economic momentum in the first half of the current year will slow slightly, expansion of economic output this year and next will exceed production capacity growth. As a result, overall capacity utilization will increase, with economic output exceeding potential output. Gross Domestic Product is likely to grow by 1.9 percent this year and by 2 percent in 2018 (calendar-adjusted: 2.2 and 2.1 percent, respectively).
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07.09.2017 • 32/2017
The German economy: Growing strongly
In the summer of 2017, the upswing in Germany continues. „For this year, we forecast gross domestic product to expand by 1.9%, as it did in 2016, and for 2018 by 2.0%” says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and IWH vice president.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges
John Haltiwanger, Erik Hurst, Javier Miranda, Antoinette Schoar
NBER Studies in Income and Wealth,
2017
Abstract
Start-ups and other entrepreneurial ventures make a significant contribution to the US economy, particularly in the tech sector, where they comprise some of the largest and most influential companies. Yet for every startup that becomes a high-profile, high-growth company like Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Google, many more fail. This enormous heterogeneity poses conceptual and measurement challenges for economists concerned with understanding how new businesses affect economic growth.
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Non-linearity in the Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Indonesia
Nuruzzaman Arsyad, Iftekhar Hasan, Wahyoe Soedarmono
International Economics,
August
2017
Abstract
This paper investigates the finance-growth nexus where bank credit is decomposed into investment, consumption, and working capital credit. From a panel dataset of provinces in Indonesia, it documents that higher financial development measured by financial deepening and financial intermediation exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic growth. This non-linear effect of financial deepening is driven by both investment credit and consumption credit. These results suggest that too much investment credit and, to a lesser extent, consumption credit are detrimental to economic growth. Ultimately, only financial intermediation associated with working capital credit has a positive and monotonic impact on economic growth.
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The Macroeconomic Development of the GDR until 1989
Udo Ludwig
Schneider, Jürgen (Hrsg.): Die Ursachen für den Zusammenbruch der Sowjetunion und der DDR (1945-1990). Eine ordnungstheoretische Analyse, Beiträge zur Wirtschafts- u. Sozialgeschichte. Band 132.2. Stuttgart,
2017
Abstract
The paper analyzes the crucial events and political strategies driving the economic history of the former GDR. Applying the growth accounting model I estimate the impact of labor and capital inputs as wells as of the technological progress on GDP growth in different time periods. The main finding is the dominant role of total factor productivity in economic growth only during the economic reforms in the second halve of the 60ies.
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Aktuelle Trends: Sachsen-Anhalt kann beim Wirtschaftswachstum nicht mit Ostdeutschland mithalten
Oliver Holtemöller
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2017
Abstract
Die Daten zum Wirtschaftswachstum des Arbeitskreises Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen der Länder für das Jahr 2016 zeigen erneut, dass Sachsen-Anhalt von der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung im übrigen Ostdeutschland abgekoppelt ist. Während das Wirtschaftswachstum in Ostdeutschland im Jahr 2016 insgesamt 2,1% betrug, stellte Sachsen-Anhalt mit nur 1,0% wieder einmal das ostdeutsche Schlusslicht dar. Im gesamtdeutschen Vergleich schnitt lediglich das Saarland noch schlechter ab. Berlin und Sachsen waren mit jeweils 2,7% bundesweit die Spitzenreiter beim Wirtschaftswachstum, Thüringen lag mit 1,8% gleichauf mit Westdeutschland (vgl. Abbildung a).
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IWH Report "2014-2016"
One-off Publications,
2017
Abstract
The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association is an independent economic institute. Since its founding in 1992, it particularly focuses on structural change. This broad field is highly relevant to the future of the economy at both national and international levels – from issues of growth and alignment between East and West, dealing with the role of the financial system, with crises at the European level, and labour market and education issues.
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08.06.2017 • 25/2017
The German Economy: Strong Economic Activity in Germany and in the World
In the early summer of 2017, economic momentum in the world is quite strong. Important general conditions for the global economy are likely to remain favourable: Interest rates will continue to be low almost everywhere, and low inflationary pressure suggests that there are hardly any constraints from the supply side.
Oliver Holtemöller
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From World Factory to World Investor: The New Way of China Integrating into the World
Bijun Wang, Xiang Li
China Economic Journal,
No. 2,
2017
Abstract
This paper argues that outward direct investment (ODI) is replacing international trade as the new way China integrates into the world. Based on two complementary datasets, we document the pattern of Chinese ODI. We argue that the rapid growth of China’s ODI is the result of strong economic development, increasing domestic constraints, and supportive government policies. Compared with trade integration, investment integration involves China more deeply in global business. As a new global investor, China’s ODI in the future is full of opportunities, risks, and challenges. The Chinese government should improve bureaucracy coordination and participate more in designing and maintaining international rules to protect ODI interests.
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