Ostdeutsche Transformationsgesellschaft: Zum Fortbestand von Strukturen und Verhaltensweisen
Alexander Kubis, Cornelia Lang, Lutz Schneider, Gerhard Heimpold
A. Lorenz (Hrsg.), Ostdeutschland und die Sozialwissenschaften. Bilanz und Perspektiven 20 Jahre nach der Wiedervereinigung,
2011
Abstract
Subject of this contribution is, whether socio-economic structures which have evolved since German Unification in East Germany are still different from those in West Germany or whether they are similar. The findings reveal similarities in terms of fertility behavior and mortality, and educational attainment measured by the proportion of high-school graduates reveals only minor differences. Contrary, the proportion of persons who have a migration background is considerably lower than in West Germany whereas the proportion of mothers full-time employed exceeds the West German average. Net-migration losses in East Germany linked with the echo-effects of postponed births will exert a strong impact on the future potential of population in working age. This in mind, maintaining human capital will be a great future challenge.
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Determinants of the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Regional Studies,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
Determinants of the efficiency of regional innovation systems, Regional Studies. This paper analyses differences in the efficiency of regional innovation systems. Alternative measures for the efficiency of regional innovation systems based on the concept of a knowledge production function are discussed. The empirical findings suggest that spillovers from within the private sector as well as from universities and other public research institutions have a positive effect on the efficiency of private sector research and development. It is particularly the intensity of interactions between private and public sector research and development that increases the efficiency. It is found that regions dominated by large establishments tend to be less efficient than regions with a lower average establishment size.
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Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
Makram El-Shagi
North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected inflation, we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect.
The extracted unexpected inflation is compared to the forecasting errors of ten
econometric forecasts. Beside the standard AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models, which
are known to perform best on average, we also employ several Phillips curve based approaches, VAR, dynamic factor models and two simple model avering approaches.
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Economic Effects of Investment Grants for Water and Sewerage Infrastructure – The Case of Saxony
Peter Haug
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2010
Abstract
The article deals with the regional economic growth effects of the German “Joint Scheme” for the improvement of regional economic structures (“GA-Infra”). It focuses on water and sewerage projects located in the federal state of Saxony (Germany) during the funding period 2000-2007. Evaluating these projects is important for scientific as well as for economic policy reasons.
First of all, according to general economic theory, the potential direct and indirect supply-side effects of the water and sewerage infrastructure as well as the price effects caused by this infrastructure are relevant for location decisions only to certain branches of the manufacturing industry.
Subsidies for the development of the sewerage infrastructure have been granted mostly according to the growth target of regional policy, i.e. primarily to municipalities with above-average volumes of industry sewage. This finding could not be confirmed for water provision.
A regression analysis (estimating the labour demand of the local manufacturing industry) showed no empirical evidence for any relationship between the changes in labour demand and the amount of GA-Infra funded water and sewerage infrastructure investments. This might be a consequence of the already satisfactory development condition of the infrastructure in question at the beginning of the funding period (“ubiquitous infrastructure”).
According to a survey of local governments conducted by the IWH, these results might be explained by the fact that business customers did not benefit from price reductions despite the GA-Infra funding granted to their local water and sewage disposal providers. Even though there might be some intuitively plausible reasons (decreasing population, no connection fees) for these findings, no effect on firm location decisions can be expected under these circumstances.
All in all, we do not consider the further extension of these funding priorities to be necessary. Especially, the GA-Infra water/sewerage grants should neither be used to mitigate the cost effects of demographic changes or regulation nor to compensate for losses caused by the buyer power of large firms.
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The German New Fiscal Rule (Schuldenbremse): Previous Agreements Question Success on the Länder Level
Kristina vanDeuverden, Sabine Freye
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2010
Abstract
Starting in 2011, Germany will have a new fiscal rule to limit indebtedness - the debt brake. To encourage the functioning of this regulation on federal and Länder level, an advice board (Stabilitätsrat) was founded in April 2010. In a first step he selected four key numbers and defined thresholds. This article focuses on the chosen indicators and thresholds on Länder level by evaluating the effectiveness of both, the key figures themselves and their thresholds. We are analyzing time series from 1995 to 2009. The findings show that in general, the chosen figures are able to indicate a possible debt risk. However, the threshold values of the advice board endanger the effectiveness of the debt brake. This danger is especially caused by the mode of calculation: The thresholds are based on an average of German Länder. For this reason, only extremely negative household developments are pointed out. Furthermore, the new German debt brake is fundamentally based on the structural budget balance. Nevertheless, this key figure has not directly been chosen by the board. The approach of the board can be explained by the fact that there is - so far - no agreement between the federal level and the Länder how to calculate the structural balance on the Länder level.
This circumstance is precarious, because the debt brake cannot step really into force without the calculation of the structural budget balance for the Länder. For this reason, we try to close this vacancy by proposing a possible calculating mode for the structural part of the budget. The results of this calculation are indicating that on average the fiscal policy of the Länder was not sustainable. Key numbers as defined by the board indicated this only for a few of the Länder. From our point of view policy urgently has to act – otherwise the debt brake might not be successful.
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Wer zahlt für das schöne Leben? Technische Infrastruktur in Zeiten von Bevölkerungsrückgang am Beispiel von drei ostdeutschen Mittelstädten
C. Deilmann, I. Kropp, Peter Haug
Tagungsband Arbeitskreis Stadterneuerung an deutschsprachigen Hochschulen,
2010
Abstract
In cities with decreasing population there is an increasing concern about the future cost of technical infrastructure. A diminishing number of inhabitants will have to bear the costs of the public services provided by their community. Beyond the pure cost arithmetic the main research question of our project was how urban planning can contribute to alleviating the rising average cost per service unit (cbm, sqm). The study was carried out for three medium-sized cities in the eastern part of Germany with a time horizon of 2030. The focus is on water, sewage and communal roads.
The rather surprising result was that urban planning (attempts for densification, inner city development instead of extensivation of the urban fabric) has little effect on long-term cost compared to the unavoidable yearly renovation requirements of the technical infrastructure. Because of the dominant block of fixed cost in technical infrastructure systems, the demographic development is the main cost determinant. Therefore, in future a massive problem in financing today’s standard of public services will be imminent.
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Human Capital in a regional Comparison of East and West Germany: Catching up of the New Laender
Maike Irrek
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2010
Abstract
The endowment with human capital is not only a factor that strongly influences the region’s current economical potential, but also has a considerable effect on its future economical potential, i.o.w. economic growth. Human capital describes the employable peoples’ skills and their personal knowledge, which can be used in the production of goods and services as well as in the further development of them.
The public debate about East Germany’s economic development is referring to this crucial relation when exposing the problems of the medium-term development of the supply of professionals or the firm’s research- and development intensity. For a better assessment of the situation on the aggregation level of the New Laender this article attempts to estimate the human capital endowment and its evolution over time in comparison to West Germany.
The average human capital of the employed persons and the labour force potential is estimated by means of the earned income for East and West Germany separately. As a result the average human capital of the employed persons can be shown to have risen slightly from 1995 to 2004 in East Germany while there is nearly no increase in West Germany. This may be considered as a catching-up process, without already having led to equalization.
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Russia: Overcoming the Effects of Economic Crisis Takes Time
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2010
Abstract
The last year's decline of Gross Domestic Product in Russia was harder than in most big economies of the world. The financial crisis has revealed specific circumstances of growth in Russia: The situation deteriorated not only by the downfall of crude oil prices, but especially by the Russian banking sector not being able to satisfy financing demand of the private sector enterprises. So foreign liabilities of enterprises had increased and the dependence of the enterprises on the international financial markets had strengthened. In that way impacts of the global financial crisis affected Russia harder. Although external conditions for the Russian economy improved in the last months due to the rise of world oil prices and global demand for commodities, domestic demand still suffers from small revenues and bad financing conditions for enterprises. Because of its structural weakness it will take Russia longer than other transformation countries to overcome the crisis. Economic growth in the near future will expand much smaller than on last years’ average.
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Business Networks in the Leipzig, Dresden, Chemnitz and Halle Regions: Do Member Firms Locate in Spatial Proximity?
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
The business landscape in East Germany mainly consists of small and medium-sized firms. This in mind, business networks may contribute to an improvement of the economic performance of firms which collaborate in business networks. For successful networking a mix of network members being locally concentrated on the one side and of partners from distant regions, especially from abroad, on the other side, is important. In regional economics, this duality is highlighted for two reasons: personal contacts of partners which are located in spatial proximity to each other may ease the transfer of tacit knowledge. The flow of tacit knowledge can be regarded as a factor which enhances innovation processes. However, the inclusion of partners from abroad is important, too. It facilitates access to the most advanced knowledge and technologies worldwide. The academic debate on networking regards a one-sided orientation on the local dimension of networking as risky due to possible lock-in effects. The empirical findings for 93 business networks existing in the regions of Leipzig, Dresden, Chemnitz and Halle, which are located in the southern part of East Germany, reveal a great proportion of network members concentrated locally: On average, this is the case with more than 50% of the network members. 10% of members are located in the other three city regions mentioned. More than one third of firms are located outside, in other German regions, of which around the half in the states of Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. A minority of 2% is located abroad. However, for the transfer of externally existing knowledge other network members may be relevant, too. To illustrate: More than four fifths of the networks under investigation include public research units (universities etc.) which usually play an important role when it comes to an inter-regional and international knowledge transfer.
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Human Capital and Fertility in Germany after 1990: Evidence from a Multi-Spell Model
Marco Sunder
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 22,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the timing of birth of the first three children based on German panel
data (GSOEP) within a hazard rate framework. A random effects estimator is
used to accommodate correlation across spells. We consider the role of human
capital – approximated by a Mincer-type regression – and its gender-specific
effects on postponement of parenthood and possible recuperation at higherorder
births. An advantage of the use of panel data in this context consists in
its prospective nature, so that determinants of fertility can be measured when
at risk rather than ex-post, thus helping to reduce the risk of reverse causality.
The analysis finds evidence for strong recuperation effects, i.e., women with
greater human capital endowments follow, on average, a different birth history
trajectory, but with negligible curtailment of completed fertility.
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