New labor market results: More transparency of labor market policy measures
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Gabriele Hardt, Birgit Schultz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2002
Abstract
The article describes the modified labour-market statement as produced by The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) on the example of East Germany. There are included different new measures of labour-market policy which allow to reflect the extent of underemployment (including job creation measures) more completely and transparentely as before.
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Germany s dependence on the economic situation in the U.S. is less crucial than generally assumed
Klaus Weyerstraß
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2002
Abstract
In the context of the recent cyclical downturn in Germany it has often been argued that Germany depends more than other European countries on international economic developments. In this article it is investigated whether empirical support can be found for this proposition. Moreover, it is explored whether this relation has changed over time. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are applied to the output gaps of different economies.
It is shown that in the seventies and eighties, the transmission of business cycle shocks was more pronounced to Germany than to the other EU countries. Since the middle of the nineties, no such differences can be detected. Furthermore, since the middle of the nineties, the effects of shocks from abroad on the German business cycle have been significantly more short-lived than before.
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Determinants of population development in East and West Germany
Gunter Steinmann, Sven Tagge
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2002
Abstract
In the long run there will be a change of the size and the structure of the german population because of mortality decline and birth rates below the reproduction level. In this projection we analyze the different effects of variations of fertility, mortality and migration flows on the population. We show, that immigration on a realistic level is not able to compensate the deficit of live births, but can alleviate the shrinking and ageing process of the german population. Without pronatalistic measures, higher than present birth rates are not expected. While, in our simulations, immigration and an increase in fertility could potentially stabilize the population size in the west, this will not occur in the eastern part of Germany. There, the net east-west migration leads to an additional population decline.
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Current Trends - Differences in real savings despite almost equal savings ratio in East and West Germany
Ruth Grunert
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2002
Abstract
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Intra-industry trade between European Union and Transition Economies. Does income distribution matter?
Hubert Gabrisch, Maria Luigia Segnana
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 155,
2002
Abstract
EU-TE trade is increasingly characterised by intra-industry trade. For some countries (Czech Republic), the share of intra-industry trade in total trade with the EU approaches 60 percent. The decomposition of intra-industry trade into horizontal and vertical shares reveals overwhelming vertical structures with strong quality advantages for the EU and shrinking quality advantages for TE countries wherever trade has been liberalised. Empirical research on factors determining this structure in an EU-TE framework has lagged theoretical and empirical research on horizontal trade and vertical trade in other regions of the world. The main objective of this paper is, therefore, to contribute to the ongoing debate over EU-TE trade structures, by offering an explanation of intra-industry trade. We utilize a cross-country approach in which relative wage differences and country size play a leading role. In addition, as implied by a model of the productquality
cycle, we examine income distribution factors as determinates of the emerging
EU-TE structure of trade flows. Using OLS regressions, we find first, that relative
differences in wages (per capita income) and country size explain intra-industry trade, when trade is vertical and completely liberalized and second, that cross country differences in income distribution play no explanatory role. We conclude that if increasing wage differences resulted from an increasing productivity gap between highquality and low-quality industries, then vertical structures will, over the long-term create significant barriers for the increase in TE incomes and lowering EU-TE income differentials.
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Risk Potential for Financial Crises for the Central and East European Transition Countries still high
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2002
Abstract
Since the mid-nineties there have been several financial crises in Central and Eastern Europe. Among the countries affected are Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania - all countries with which the European Union is in the midst of accession negotiations. The prevention of financial crises is also important due to the output losses which occurr in the affected countries. Additionally, contagion effects can influence the economic situation in third countries such as those of the EU. For this reason, the IWH analyses on a regular basis the risk potential of the EU-accession countries as well as for Turkey and Russia.
Since the beginning of 1999 at least two different phases in the development of the risk potential can be distinguished for the majority of the Central and Eastern European countries. The first phase is marked by an increase in the risk potential across all countries in the region because of the contagion and spill-over effects following the Russian financial crisis in August 1998. The risk potential was considerably reduced with the phasing out of these effects and a worldwide economic recovery. However, since mid-2000 a second phase has set in. The weaker international environment has again led to a sizable increase in the crisis vulnerability of several countries, where a host of signals indicate an urgent need for economic policy actions.
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Local Taxes and Capital Structure Choice
Reint E. Gropp
International Tax and Public Finance,
No. 1,
2002
Abstract
This paper investigates the question of taxation and capital structure choice in Germany. Germany represents an excellent case study for investigating the question of whether and to what extent taxes influence the debt-equity decision of firms, because the relative tax burdens on debt and equity vary greatly across communities. German communities levy local taxes on profits and long-term debt payments in addition to personal and corporate taxes on the federal level. A stylized model is presented incorporating these taxes. The model shows that local taxes create substantial incentives for firms to use debt financing. Furthermore, the paper empirically investigates the effect of local business taxes on the share of debt used to finance incremental investments by German firms. I find that local taxes significantly influence the capital structure choice of firms, controlling for a large number of other factors. In an extensive sensitivity analysis the tax effect are found to be robust across several different specifications.
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On the Future EU Cohesion Policies in Association States: the
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
2001
Abstract
Not only are levels of economic development in the association states in Central
East Europe lower than the average EU-15. They furthermore exhibit significantly
different sectoral structures. Does this suggest that a large fraction of the develop-
ment gap can be explained by those sectoral differences? In its latest report on
cohesion policy, the EU Commission accordingly placed particular emphasis on
sectoral structures when contemplating future intervention policy in newly acceeding
members.
Our analysis shows, however, that the patterns of sectoral structures play only a
minor role as determinants of the lower level of development, measured here as
productivity gap. The explanatory power of sectoral differennces is significant only
in Slovakia. The suggestions made in the EU-report is not supported by our
analysis. The existing programmes appear to be well equipped to account for the
particuliarities in transition economies.
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Korean unification and banking system - An analysis in view of German experiences and Korean differences
Ralf Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 139,
2001
Abstract
One of the reforms that have to be launched in a future unification process in Korea, which seems possible after the political negotiations last year, is the transformation of the North Korean banking system. The question arises whether Korea could profit from the German experience where banking transformation was one of the rather few success stories in unification. In 1990 the East German banking transformation was achieved relatively fast and uncomplicated due to considerable direct investments of the West German banks compounded with state guarantees for bad loans resulting from the credit business with existing GDR-corporations. Unfortunately, South Korea currently lacks some major prerequesites that contributed to the German banking unification, among them – and probably the most important one – is the lack of a sound and efficient banking
system that could become active in the North. Consequently, depending on the circumstances of a future Korean unification either a more gradual process is recommended or, if inner-Korean migration requires a more dynamic transition, considerable investment by foreign banks and assistance from international organisations is recommended.
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Productivity gap of East German industry: A summarizing evaluation
Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2001
Abstract
Ten years after German unification labor productivity in the New Laender reaches only 70 per cent of West German levels. Further, in the second half of the 1990ies, convergence did not continue. Because productivity can be regarded as a key for wages, for competitiveness of firms and for future transfer payments, the reasons for low productivity in East Germany are of major importance. In this article, it is argued that the existing productivity gap reflects mainly structural differences between East and West Germany, that is the high share of small firms and the predominance of sectors with low value added per worker. Additionally, difficulties on product markets leading to insufficient selling prices are responsible for the comparative low productivity of East German firms. Differences in capital intensity or in human capital, however, do explain only a small part of the productivity gap.
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