Stochastic Income Statement Planning and Emissions Trading
Henry Dannenberg, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Abstract
Since the introduction of the European CO2 emissions trading system (EU ETS), the
development of CO2 allowance prices is a new risk factor for enterprises taking part in this system. In this paper, we analyze how risk emerging from emissions trading can be considered in the stochastic profit and loss planning of corporations. Therefore we explore which planned figures are affected by emissions trading. Moreover, we show a way to model these positions in a planned profit and loss account accounting for uncertainties and dependencies. Consequently, this model provides a basis for risk assessment and investment decisions in the uncertain environment of CO2 emissions trading.
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Macroeconomic Shocks and Banks' Foreign Assets
Claudia M. Buch, K. Carstensen, A. Schertler
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
Recent developments in international financial markets have highlighted the role of banks in the transmission of shocks across borders. We employ dynamic panel methods for a sample of OECD countries to analyze whether banks' foreign assets react to macroeconomic shocks at home and abroad. We find that banks reduce their foreign assets in response to a relative increase in domestic interest rates, and they increase their foreign assets when the growth rate of world energy prices rises. The responses are characterized by a temporal overshooting and a dynamic adjustment process that extends over several quarters.
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Monopsonistic Labour Markets and the Gender Pay Gap: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Boris Hirsch
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems,
No. 639,
2010
Abstract
This book investigates models of spatial and dynamic monopsony and their application to the persistent empirical regularity of the gender pay gap. Theoretically, the main conclusion is that employers possess more monopsony power over their female employees if women are less driven by pecuniary considerations in their choice of employers than men. Employers may exploit this to increase their profits at the detriment of women’s wages. Empirically, it is indeed found that women’s labour supply to the firm is less wage-elastic than men’s and that at least a third of the gender pay gap in the data investigated may result from employers engaging in monopsonistic discrimination. Therefore, a monopsonistic approach to gender discrimination in the labour market clearly contributes to the economic understanding of the gender pay gap. It not only provides an intuitively appealing explanation of the gap from standard economic reasoning, but it is also corroborated by empirical observation.
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Margins of international banking: Is there a productivity pecking order in banking, too?
Claudia M. Buch
Bundesbank Discussion Paper 12/2009,
2009
Abstract
Modern trade theory emphasizes firm-level productivity differentials to explain
the cross-border activities of non-financial firms. This study tests whether a
productivity pecking order also determines international banking activities. Using
a novel dataset that contains all German banks’ international activities, we
estimate the ordered probability of a presence abroad (extensive margin) and the
volume of international assets (intensive margin). Methodologically, we enrich the
conventional Heckman selection model to account for the self-selection of banks
into different modes of foreign activities using an ordered probit. Four main
findings emerge. First, similar to results for non-financial firms, a productivity
pecking order drives bank internationalization. Second, only a few non-financial
firms engage in international trade, but many banks hold international assets, and
only a few large banks engage in foreign direct investment. Third, in addition to
productivity, risk factors matter for international banking. Fourth, gravity-type
variables have an important impact on international banking activities.
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What Happened to the East German Housing Market? – A Historical Perspective on the Role of Public Funding –
Claus Michelsen, Dominik Weiß
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 20,
2009
Abstract
The paper analyses the development of the East German housing market after the reunification of the former German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany in 1990. We analyse the dynamics of the East German housing market within the framework of the well-known stock-flow model, proposed by DiPasquale and Wheaton. We show that the today observable disequilibrium to a large extend is caused by post-unification housing policy and its strong fiscal incentives to invest into the housing stock. Moreover, in line with the stylized empirical facts, we show that ‘hidden reserves’ of the housing market were reactivated since the economy of East Germany became market organized. Since initial undersupply was overcome faster than politicians expected, the implemented fiscal stimuli were too strong. In contrast to the widespread opinion that outward migration caused the observable vacancies, this paper shows that not weakness of demand but supply side policies caused the observable disequilibrium.
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Warum exportiert der Osten so wenig? Eine empirische Analyse der Exportaktivitäten deutscher Bundesländer
Götz Zeddies
AStA - Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv,
No. 4,
2009
Abstract
In the aftermath of re-unification, East German exports declined around 70% due to the breakdown of COMECON trade. Although since the mid-1990s export growth rates of the New Federal States were higher than those of their West German counterparts, export performance of East German States measured by the share of exports in GDP is still comparatively poor. Whereas for a long time the low export performance of East German producers was ascribed to competitive disadvantages, in the meantime structural deficits on the micro and/or macro level are often considered as the main reason. Using bilateral trade data of German Federal States, the present paper shows on the basis of an orthodox gravity model of trade that East German exports are explicitly lower than predicted by the model. But if the gravity model is augmented by additional variables representing structural differences between Federal States, the latter explain almost entirely the lower export performance of Eastern Germany. Thus, especially the smaller firm sizes and the lower shares of manufacturing industries in gross value added are identified as important explanatory factors of the comparatively weak export performance of the New German States.
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Tentative Recovery, Public Debt on the Rise
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
2. Sonderausgabe
2009
Abstract
In autumn 2009, the world economy appears to be growing again. The situation has improved mainly because drastic measures of central banks and governments stabilized the financial sector. More recently, the real economy is supported by fiscal programs taking effect. However, recoveries are usually slow if, as it is the case now, recessions have been intertwined with banking and housing crises. Thus, the industrial economies will not gain much dynamics this year and next, while chances for an upswing in emerging economies are much better.
The German economy stabilized during summer as well, with remarkably robust private consumption. An upswing, however, is, due to several factors, not in sight: Some important export markets will not rebound quickly, and consumption will be dampened by rising unemployment that, up to now, has been contained, not least with the aid of short-term working schemes. All in all, production shrinks by 5% in 2009 and will increase by no more than 1.2% next year. Public deficits are on the rise, with (in relation to GDP) 3.2% this year and 5.2% in 2010.
A credit crunch due to deteriorating balance sheets of banks is a major risk for the German economy. Policy should address this problem by making sure that equity ratios are sufficiently high. One way would be to impose public capital on banks that do not comply with certain regulatory ratios. These should be higher than the ones presently in force. Fiscal policy should begin consolidating in 2011, mainly by dampening the rise of expenditures. Tax cuts are only justified if they are accompanied by very ambitious spending cuts.
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Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
Makram El-Shagi
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 16,
2009
Abstract
The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts
based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of
ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected
inflation we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect.
The extracted unexpected inflation is compared to the forecasting errors of ten
econometric forecasts. Beside the standard AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models, which
are known to perform best on average, we also employ several Phillips curve based approaches, VAR, dynamic factor models and two simple model avering approaches.
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Financial constraints and the margins of FDI
Claudia M. Buch
Bundesbank Discussion Paper 29/2009,
2009
Abstract
Recent literature on multinational firms has stressed the importance of low productivity as a barrier to the cross-border expansion of firms. But firms may also need external finance to shoulder the costs of entering foreign markets. We develop a model of multinational firms facing real and financial barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI), and we analyze their impact on the FDI decision (the extensive margin) and foreign affiliate sales (the intensive margin). We provide empirical evidence based on a detailed dataset of German multinationals which contains information on parent-level and affiliate-level financial constraints as well as about the location the foreign affiliates. We find that financial factors constrain firms’ foreign investment decisions, an effect felt in particular by large firms. Financial constraints at the parent level matter for the extensive, but less
so for the intensive margin. For the intensive margin, financial constraints at the affiliate level are relatively more important.
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Is the European Monetary Union an Endogenous Currency Area? The Example of the Labor Markets
Herbert S. Buscher, Hubert Gabrisch
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 7,
2009
Abstract
Our study tries to find out whether wage dynamics between Euro member countries became more synchronized through the adoption of the common currency. We calculate bivarate correlation coefficients of wage and wage cost dynamics and run a model of endogenously induced changes of coefficients, which are explained by other variables being also endogenous: trade intensity, sectoral specialization, financial integration. We used a panel data structure to allow for cross-section weights for country-pair observations. We use instrumental variable regressions in order to disentangle exogenous from endogenous influences. We applied these techniques to real and nominal wage dynamics and to dynamics of unit labor costs. We found evidence for persistent asymmetries in nominal wage formation despite a single currency and monetary policy, responsible for diverging unit labor costs and for emerging trade imbalances among the EMU member countries.
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