09.06.2016 • 22/2016
The German Economy Benefits from Strong Domestic Demand
In 2016, the moderate upswing of the German economy continues. Incomes grow due to the steady expansion in employment, and the fall in energy prices has propped up the purchasing power of private households. As a consequence, private consumption expands healthily; investment in housing is additionally stimulated by very low interest rates. Exports, however, expand only moderately, as the world economy is rather weak. All in all, the IWH forecasts the German GDP to expand by 1.8% in this year and by 1.6% in 2017.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Upturn Remains Moderate — Economic Policy Lacks Growth Orientation
Roland Döhrn, Ferdinand Fichtner, Oliver Holtemöller, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 5,
2016
Abstract
The German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.6 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent in 2017. The upturn will be driven by private consumption, which will benefit from continued employment growth, sizeable increases in wage and transfer income, and also purchasing power gains thanks to lower energy prices. Fiscal policy will also be expansively oriented, partly due to rising costs related to refugee immigration. Public budgets will still post significant surpluses in the forecasting period, however. Failing to use this room for manoeuvre to promote growth, as seen in recent years, is not a sustainable path. In view of the continuous slack in the euro area economy, the monetary policy stance is considered to be appropriate. Should it become obvious in the course of this year that production does not return to normal capacity and that the inflation rate does not move towards two per cent, further measures to stimulate growth might become necessary. The scope for further monetary policy measures has been widely exhausted, though. A further economic stabilization could only be achieved through a combination of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. This could severely damage the credibility of monetary policy, however.
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Buy, Keep, or Sell: Economic Growth and the Market for Ideas
Ufuk Akcigit, Murat Alp Celik, Jeremy Greenwood
Econometrica,
No. 3,
2016
Abstract
An endogenous growth model is developed where each period firms invest in researching and developing new ideas. An idea increases a firm's productivity. By how much depends on the technological propinquity between an idea and the firm's line of business. Ideas can be bought and sold on a market for patents. A firm can sell an idea that is not relevant to its business or buy one if it fails to innovate. The developed model is matched up with stylized facts about the market for patents in the United States. The analysis gauges how efficiency in the patent market affects growth.
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Regional Capital Flows and Economic Regimes: Evidence from China
Liuchun Deng, Boqun Wang
Economics Letters,
April
2016
Abstract
Using provincial data from China, this paper examines the pattern of capital flows in relation to the transition of economic regimes. We show that fast-growing provinces experienced less capital inflows before the large-scale market reform, contrary to the prediction of the neoclassical growth theory. As China transitioned from the central-planning economy to the market economy, the negative correlation between productivity growth and capital inflows became much less pronounced. From a regional perspective, this finding suggests domestic institutional factors play an important role in shaping the pattern of capital flows.
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14.04.2016 • 15/2016
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2016: Upturn Remains Moderate – Economic Policy Lacks Growth Orientation
Economic research institutes now estimate that gross domestic product will increase by 1.6 percent in 2016, instead of 1.8 percent as forecast in autumn 2015.
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Mere Criticism of the ECB is no Solution
M. Fratzscher, Reint E. Gropp, Jan Pieter Krahnen, Hans-Helmut Kotz, Christian Odendahl, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Guntram Wolff
One-off Publications,
2016
Abstract
Criticism in Germany of the ECB is counter-productive. Monetary policy must remain expansive so that it can at least begin to fulfil the ECB mandate. The preservation of its credibility also demands that. Instead of the ECB doing less, European policymakers must do more. They need to act more decisively to set Europe back upon a growth path.
[A shorter version was published under the title “Kritik an Draghi ist noch keine Lösung“ in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung of April 10, 2016].
Policymakers, including in Germany, can no longer shirk their responsibility for the current economic situation in large parts of Europe. That calls for growth-friendly fiscal policy, structural reforms to open up new markets and consolidation and restructuring of the financial sector. We in Germany, above all, must look in the mirror, because we need the majority of these reforms just as urgently as our European neighbours do.
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Vierteljährliche Konjunkturberichterstattung für das Land Sachsen-Anhalt - Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Lage im 4. Quartal 2015 -
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß, Brigitte Loose
IWH Online,
No. 1,
2016
Abstract
Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Sachsen-Anhalt hat nach den indikatorgestützten Schätzungen des IWH im vierten Quartal des Jahres 2015 um 0,3% zugenommen, nachdem sie im Quartal zuvor zurückgegangen war. Damit dürfte die Expansion im vierten Quartal 2015 in etwa mit der in Deutschland in Gleichklang gewesen sein.
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Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D? Evidence from US States
Viktor Slavtchev, Simon Wiederhold
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
No. 2,
2016
Abstract
Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimations, we find support for the model's prediction of a positive R&D effect of the technological content of government procurement. Instrumental-variable estimations suggest a causal interpretation of our findings.
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16.03.2016 • 10/2016
German Economy Stays Stable Despite Shaky Environment
The German economy had a good start into the year 2016, in spite of heightened risks for the world economy and political turmoil in Europe. Employment and incomes are expanding, as is internal de-mand, additionally supported by government spending related to the high number of newly arrived refugees. However, sliding sentiment indicates a temporary slow down of the economy during this spring. We assume that the present political tensions inside the European Union can be mitigated in the coming months and that confidence will rise again. All in all, gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise by 1.5% in 2016.
Oliver Holtemöller
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