East Germany: Number of Employees Subject to Social Insurance Will Continue to Increase
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2011
Abstract
In 2011 the employment situation in East Germany has again improved. Approximately half of the employment growth is attributable to the industry (incl. construction). Registered unemployment declined considerably. Labor supply decreased like in recent years. In forecasting horizon the number of employees subject to social insurance will still increase despite of lower economic growth. The unemployment rate will amount to 11.0% in 2011 and to 10.9% in 2012.
Read article
Local Economic Structure and Sectoral Employment Growth in German Cities
Annette Illy, Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie,
No. 5,
2011
Abstract
This study systematically examines the impact of fundamental elements of urban economic structure on sectoral employment growth in German cities (“urban growth”). We test four elements simultaneously – sectoral specialisation, diversification of economic activities, urban size and the impact of local competition. To account for the effect of varying spatial delimitations in the analysis of urban growth, we further differentiate between cities and planning regions as geographical units. Our regression results show a U-shaped relationship between localisation economies and urban growth and positive effects of local competition on urban growth. With respect to diversification, we find positive effects on urban growth on the city level, but insignificant results on the level of the planning regions. The impact of urban size also differs between free cities and planning regions; in the former, a U-shaped relationship is found, whereas the effect is inversely U-shaped for the latter.
Read article
21 years old and a little bit more realistic?
Udo Ludwig
Deutschland Archiv – Zeitschrift für das vereinigte Deutschland,
2011
Abstract
East Germany`s development in the market economy shows ambiguous results. Although the re-structured economy proved itself to be growth orientated, the sustainable growth lead over the West German economy was attained only in the first half of the 1990s. Later on the catching up became smaller and smaller. Moreover employment recovered for the first time in the last upsw-ing before the global economic and financial crisis after the tremendous losses of jobs in the transitional period. Last but not least, as a result of low birth rates and emigration the shrinking number of inhabitants in East Germany could not be stopped. In the final analysis, long lasting repercussions of the inherited structures from GDR times are responsible for the backwardness of this region as well as the way of the economic transition in East Germany and regional differences in the settlements. Against this background the accomplishment of equal living standards in the eastern and western part of Germany should not be assessed in the light of medium per capita measures, but specified by comparisons between commensurable regions.
Read article
Cluster Policies in the Federal States of Bavaria and Thuringia: Discrepancies between Practice and Theory
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2011
Abstract
The contribution analyzes cluster policies pursued in the Federal States of Bavaria and Thuringia. The investigation is based on the exploration of government documents. In both countries cluster policy is target at strengthening competitiveness. The documents explored do not reveal an economic justification for cluster policy in the sense of eliminating market failures, e. g. externalities, information asymmetries and coordination failures. Therefore, it is unclear whether the support schemes under consideration really tie in with factors that hamper cluster evolution. Policies in both states support state-wider clusters and networks. The state-wide focus, however, might undervalue advantages of spatial proximity. As another critical point the ex-ante selection of industries or technologies eligible under cluster policy can be regarded. Despite readiness of considering new technologies etc., public administration generally suffers from a lack of information about the future development perspectives of industries and technologies. A way to mitigate the limited capability of public administration in terms of forecasting might be favoring economic support based on competition for the best concepts/projects instead of focusing on certain industries. Several support schemes offered by the Federal government in Germany are already competition-based. In Thuringia cluster policy is strongly motivated by several structural shortcomings, e. g. by the fragmented firm landscape mainly consisting of small units. Therefore, beyond cluster policy, the necessity will remain to abolish directly the structural shortcomings mentioned, especially by providing an economic environment that enhances firm growth.
Read article
Industrial Associations as a Channel of Business-Government Interactions in an Imperfect Institutional Environment: The Russian Case
A. Yakovlev, A. Govorun
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 16,
2011
Abstract
International lessons from emerging economies suggest that business associations may provide an effective channel of communication between the government and the private sector. This function of business associations may become still more important in transition economies, where old mechanisms for coordinating enterprise activities have been destroyed, while the new ones have not been established yet. In this context, Russian experience is a matter of interest, because for a long time, Russia was regarded as a striking example of state failures and market failures. Consequently, the key point of our study was a description of the role and place of business associations in the presentday
Russian economy and their interaction with member companies and bodies of state
administration. Relying on the survey data of 957 manufacturing firms conducted in
2009, we found that business associations are more frequently joined by larger companies, firms located in regional capital cities, and firms active in investment and innovation. By contrast, business associations tend to be less frequently joined by business groups’ subsidiaries and firms that were non-responsive about their respective ownership structures. Our regression analysis has also confirmed that business associations are a component of what Frye (2002) calls an “elite exchange”– although only on regional and local levels. These “exchanges” imply that members of business associations, on the one hand, more actively assist regional and local authorities in social development of their regions, and on the other hand more often receive support from authorities. However, this effect is insignificant in terms of support from the federal government. In general, our results allow us to believe that at present, business associations (especially the
industry-wide and “leading” ones) consolidate the most active, advanced companies and act as collective representatives of their interests. For this reason, business associations can be regarded as interface units between the authorities and businesses and as a possible instrument for promotion of economic development.
Read article
Related Variety, Unrelated Variety and Regional Functions: Identifying Sources of Regional Employment Growth in Germany from 2003 to 2008
Matthias Brachert, Alexander Kubis, Mirko Titze
Abstract
This article analyses how regional employment growth in Germany is affected by related variety, unrelated variety and the functions a region performs in the production process. Following the related variety literature, we argue that regions benefit from the existence of related activities that facilitate economic development. However, we argue that the sole reliance of related variety on standard industrial classifications remains debatable. Hence, we offer estimations for establishing that conceptual progress can indeed be made when a focus for analysis goes beyond solely considering industries. We develop an industry-function based approach of related and unrelated variety. Our findings suggest that related variety only in combination with a high functional specialization
of the region facilitates regional growth in Germany. Additionally, also unrelated
variety per se fails to wield influences affecting development of regions. It is rather unrelated, but functionally proximate variety in the groups “White Collar” and “Blue Collar Workers” positively affects regional employment growth.
Read article
Vierteljährliche Konjunkturberichterstattung für das Land Sachsen-Anhalt – Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Lage im 2. Quartal 2011 –
Udo Ludwig, Brigitte Loose, Franziska Exß
One-off Publications,
No. 2,
2011
Abstract
Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung hat auch in Sachsen-Anhalt im zweiten Quartal einen Dämpfer bekommen. Nicht nur die Industrie schwächelte, sondern auch die Leistungen des Baugewerbes, des Handels sowie des Kredit- und Versicherungsgewerbes gaben gegenüber den Monaten Januar bis März konjunkturell gesehen nach. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist mit 1,2% kräftig gesunken. Das war deutlich mehr als im Durchschnitt für Deutschland und die neuen Bundesländer insgesamt (-0,2%). Allerdings wird diese Aussage sehr stark von Sondereffekten geprägt, so dass die konjunkturelle Grundtendenz unterzeichnet wird. So kam es im umsatzstärksten Industriezweig, der Mineralölverarbeitung, zu einem technisch bedingten Produktionsausfall für einen ganzen Monat, und das Baugewerbe litt unter der Reaktion auf das hohe, witterungsbedingte Aufholtempo im ersten Quartal. Die unternehmensnahen privaten Dienstleister erzielten zwar ein Leistungsplus. Sie konnten jedoch die Rückgänge in den anderen Wirtschaftsbereichen nicht wettmachen. Zudem standen die öffentlichen Dienstleister weiterhin unter dem Druck der anhaltenden Haushaltskonsolidierung im Bereich Öffentliche Verwaltung, Erziehung und Unterricht.
Read article
Auswirkungen der aus dem Konjunkturpaket II für das Zentrale Innovationsprogramm Mittelstand (ZIM) bereitgestellten Mittel auf die konjunkturelle Entwicklung. Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie (BMWi)
Jutta Günther, Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Brigitte Loose, Nicole Nulsch
One-off Publications,
2011
Abstract
The ZIM program (Zentrales Innovationsprogramm Mittelstand) is a technologically open program of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology to support small and medium enterprises and Science organizations in their research and innovation activities. It became operative July 1, 2008 and offers three program lines: individual projects, cooperative projects, and networks. In reaction to the global economic crisis the ZIM program was increased for the years 2009 and 2010 – in addition to the regulary scheduled 626 Million – by 900 Million Euro through the Konjunkturpaket II (KP II).
In this study, the analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the ZIM program in Germany has been carried out – first time in the evaluation of federal support programs for research and innovation – by the use of the input output method.
The pdf file includes an english summary with details about the study's results.
Read article
East German economy in 2011: Despite overall Economic Growth no Progress in Catching Up
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß, Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
All in all, the IWH expects that GDP of East Germany will increase by 2.8% this year. With this forecast, the growth gap with the West will indeed reduce significantly, but the growth rate remains once again behind the West. The reason is not only that the East German federal states have to consolidate their budgets. The weaker increase in aggregate output is also due to export and innovation weakness, the lack of large enterprises, the aging and declining population.
Read article