A Minimum Wage of 7.50 Euro per Hour Does Particularly Affect Jobs in Business Related Services
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Birgit Schultz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
In the present public debate on the implementation of a minimum wage, different proposals concerning its design and level are discussed. Often, a minimum wage of 7.50 euro per hour is mentioned. Thereby, it is widely unknown how many employees do earn less than 7.50 euro per hour in different branches. Their jobs could be affected by the introduction of a minimum wage. By means of data of the German Socio-Economic Panels Study, it can be shown that the shares of the low-income earners are considerably high in some branches. Especially in Eastern Germany, in branches like retail trades as well as business related services many employees earn less than 7.50 euro per hour. Wage increases on the demanded minimum level would probably cause employment losses in these labour-intensive branches.
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The Relationship between Knowledge Intensity and Market Concentration in European Industries: An inverted U-Shape
Niels Krap, Johannes Stephan
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
This paper is motivated by the European Union strategy to secure competitiveness for Europe in the globalising world by focussing on technological supremacy (the Lisbon - agenda). Parallel to that, the EU Commission is trying to take a more economic approach to competition policy in general and anti-trust policy in particular. Our analysis tries to establish the relationship between increasing knowledge intensity and the resulting market concentration: if the European Union economy is gradually shifting to a pattern of sectoral specialisation that features a bias on knowledge intensive sectors, then this may well have some influence on market concentration and competition policy would have to adjust not to counterfeit the Lisbon-agenda. Following a review of the available theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between knowledge intensity and market structure, we use a larger Eurostat database to test the shape of this relationship. Assuming a causality that runs from knowledge to concentration, we show that the relationship between knowledge intensity and market structures is in fact different for knowledge intensive industries and we establish a non-linear, inverted U-curve shape.
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On the Economics of Ex-Post Transfers in a Federal State: A Mechanism Design Approach
Martin Altemeyer-Bartscher, T. Kuhn
WWDP, 95,
No. 95,
2008
Abstract
As a common feature in many federal states grants-in aid are payed to jurisdictions ex post, i.e. after local policy measures have chosen. We show that the central government cannot offer grants ex ante in a federal states with informational asymmetries as well as inter-temporal commitment problems. Local governments’ incentives to provide public goods are distorted if they rely on federal grants-in-aid offered ex post. Furthermore it becomes obvious that local governments are apt to substitute tax revenue for higher grants-in-aid if relevant local data are unobservable for the central government. To which extend ex post transfers mitigate local governments’ incentives crucially depends on the information structure predominant in the federation.
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Business cycle forecast 2008: German upswing takes a break
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Economic growth in the industrial countries will be much more muted in 2008 than in the past year. One cause is the prolonged oil price hike during 2007. The second and more important cause is the intensification of tensions on world financial markets. Due to problems in the financial sector, credit expansion will slow next year in the euro area as well as in the US. This will dampen demand in the real economy. A significant downswing in the industrial countries, however, is not the most likely scenario: in the US, expansive economic policy and a weak dollar that gives production in the US a competitive edge will prevent the economy from sliding into recession. In the euro area, high profitability of firms and structural improvements in the working of labour markets will help the economy cope with the stronger euro and with higher costs of external financing due to the turmoil in the financial sector. In Germany, the upswing has still not reached the demand of private households. The main reason is that real wages were stagnating in 2007 and will not rise by much in 2008, since inflation has accelerated considerably at the end of last year. In addition, weaker dynamics of external demand will dampen export growth. This and the end of tax incentives for investment at the end of 2007 will dampen investment activity. All in all, the economy will slow down in the first half of 2008. However, chances are good that the upswing will only have taken a break: when the dampening external shocks have ceased, the driving powers of the upswing will prevail; dynamic employment growth is a reflection of the strong confidence of firms. A major risk for employment and for the German economy in general is, however, the possibility that the policy concerning the labour markets changes course; bad omens are the recent the introduction of minimum wages for postal services and the announced extension of unemployment benefits for persons older than 50.
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Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?
Tobias Knedlik, Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 17,
2007
Abstract
In this paper we test the ability of three of the most popular methods to forecast the South African currency crisis of June 2006. In particular we are interested in the out-ofsample performance of these methods. Thus, we choose the latest crisis to conduct an out-of-sample experiment. In sum, the signals approach was not able to forecast the outof- sample crisis of correctly; the probit approach was able to predict the crisis but just with models, that were based on raw data. Employing a Markov-regime-switching approach also allows to predict the out-of-sample crisis. The answer to the question of which method made the run in forecasting the June 2006 currency crisis is: the Markovswitching approach, since it called most of the pre-crisis periods correctly. However, the “victory” is not straightforward. In-sample, the probit models perform remarkably well and it is also able to detect, at least to some extent, out-of-sample currency crises before their occurrence. It can, therefore, not be recommended to focus on one approach only when evaluating the risk for currency crises.
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Strategien der neuen Bundesländer im Rahmen der Gemeinschaftsaufgabe „Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur“ – Ein Vergleich –
Mirko Titze
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 14,
2007
Abstract
The Common Task “Improvement of Regional Economic Structure” is one of the most important instruments for the “Reconstruction East”. Herein the federal states have an extensive flexibility to define their own kind of industrial policy. Due to their structural deficits this paper is focused on the federal states in East-Germany. A decrease in the budget constrains the governments to improve efficiency of subsidies. However, there is one way to solve this problem: change unselective government aid to regional as well as sectoral government aid. This paper shows that there is only one federal state, which has applied this kind of policy: the federal state of Brandenburg.
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Paradigm Shift in European Competition Law
Nicole Steinat
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2007
Abstract
During the last decade, European competition law went through several procedural changes, which were mainly influenced by US-American law. Economic criteria rather than legal parameters are now used to evaluate the conduct of firms. Such a “more economic approach” is apparent both in legislation and jurisdiction.
The article discusses the reforms that resulted from the paradigm shift by focusing on the legislation perspective as well as their impact in terms of cartels. One of the most important instruments in European competition policy is nowadays the Leniency Regulation, which was implemented in 1996. Another tool are the renewed Fining Guidelines, which in general will lead to higher fines.
Although European competition law adopted some instruments from American law, there are still major differences between the two jurisdictions. The possibility to impose jail sentences does not exist on a European level yet. However, a few European countries included criminal sanctions in their national laws.
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Determinants of Female Migration – The Case of German NUTS 3 Regions
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 12,
2007
Abstract
Our study examines the regional patterns and determinants of migration flows of young women. At the NUTS-3 regional level, i.e. the district level (Kreise), the German internal migration flows of the year 2005 are explored. From descriptive statistics it can be seen that peripheral regions in East Germany face the strongest migration deficit with respect to young women, whereas agglomerations in West Germany but also in the East benefit from an intense migration surplus within this group. An econometric analysis of determinants of regional migration flows gives evidence of the importance of labour market, family-related and educational migration motives. Generally speaking, young women tend to choose regions with good income and job opportunities, in addition they seem to be attracted by regions enabling an appropriate balance between family and career. Furthermore the existence of excellent educational facilities is a significant influence for young women’s migration. This educationally motivated type of migration generates a long lasting effect on the regional migration balance, especially when the educational opportunities in the destination region are associated with adequate career perspectives for high qualified female graduates. In view of considerable losses due to migration, the study shows various options for action. An important course of action is to incorporate policy measures improving regional employment and income opportunities. Secondly, extending vocational and academic offers addressed to women seems to be a suitable way to stimulate women’s immigration. Moreover, enhancing the social infrastructure, which contributes to a satisfactory work life balance, might attract young women or at least reduce the number of them leaving a region.
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The German Upswing Takes a Break
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
2. Sonderausgabe
2007
Abstract
The world economy continues to expand healthily, but risks have increased during summer. The crisis of the housing sector in the US has deepened: A revaluation of mortgage backed assets has triggered turbulences on global financial markets. The institutes expect that financial markets will calm down during the coming months, but that the downswing in the US will slow the pace of the world economy. The economy in the euro area will, in addition, be dampened by the appreciation of the euro. The German economy is, in spite of a restrictive fiscal policy, in a robust upswing. Because wage setting and inflation continues to be moderate, there will be no need for a restrictive monetary policy. Thus the German economy will, due to slower demand from the US and higher costs of financing, lose momentum, but chances are good that the upswing will only take a break. In the coming year private consumption is expected to be the main contributor to growth, because wage incomes will expand strongly. Unemployment will continue to shrink, albeit at a smaller rate than during 2007. Fiscal policy will no longer be restrictive. Economic policy has improved the conditions for growth in Germany; there is, however, still much to do. Public finances have to be consolidated further, but at the same time, public investment has to be strengthened. This can be achieved if public consumptive expenditure growth is limited. The institutes suggest to increase public expenditure by 2% per annum over the cycle in nominal terms; this is, by less than by the trend growth rate of nominal GDP.
The institutes advise against a reversal of the recent labour market reforms. Instead, incentives for taking up jobs should be increased further.
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Structural Policy in East Germany – A Discussion about the Common Task “Improvement of Regional Economic Structure“
Mirko Titze
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2007
Abstract
After the reunification – more than ten years ago – the convergence process in the eastern German regions has started. Unfortunately, the convergence process has decelerated since 1995. For this reason, economists and politicians are discussing the kind of government aid, which has been applied since the early nineties. The paper deals with the Common Task “Improvement of Regional Economic Structure“ (Gemeinschaftsaufgabe “Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur“). It is one of the most important instruments for the “Reconstruction East“. Empirical studies have shown that this instrument has led to an additional growth impulse. However, for the last ten years the budget of the Common Task has decreased. Under the restriction of scarce financial resources the governments of the federal states have to adjust their regional programmes. Economists and politicians dispute to change unselective into selective (regional and sectoral) government aid. The article shows that in particular the Federal State of Brandenburg as well as the Free State of Saxony are focusing the Common Task on specific industrial sectors and certain regions.
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