09.06.2016 • 22/2016
The German Economy Benefits from Strong Domestic Demand
In 2016, the moderate upswing of the German economy continues. Incomes grow due to the steady expansion in employment, and the fall in energy prices has propped up the purchasing power of private households. As a consequence, private consumption expands healthily; investment in housing is additionally stimulated by very low interest rates. Exports, however, expand only moderately, as the world economy is rather weak. All in all, the IWH forecasts the German GDP to expand by 1.8% in this year and by 1.6% in 2017.
Oliver Holtemöller
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16.03.2016 • 10/2016
German Economy Stays Stable Despite Shaky Environment
The German economy had a good start into the year 2016, in spite of heightened risks for the world economy and political turmoil in Europe. Employment and incomes are expanding, as is internal de-mand, additionally supported by government spending related to the high number of newly arrived refugees. However, sliding sentiment indicates a temporary slow down of the economy during this spring. We assume that the present political tensions inside the European Union can be mitigated in the coming months and that confidence will rise again. All in all, gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise by 1.5% in 2016.
Oliver Holtemöller
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16.12.2015 • 45/2015
German Economy: Strong domestic demand compensates for weak exports
The upturn of the German economy is expected to gain further momentum as a consequence of strong domestic demand. Real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.6% in 2016. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.9%. Unemployment is expected to rise slightly because it will take time to integrate refugees into the labour market.
Oliver Holtemöller
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03.12.2015 • 44/2015
Migration Affects Labour Market in Eastern Germany
Migration increasingly affects the labour market in Eastern Germany, having effects on employment and unemployment figures as well as the number of recipients of social assistance benefits under the SGB II regulations. Particularly with countries in Middle and Eastern Europe, countries affected by the European debt and confidence crisis and with people seeking asylum, there are large increases meeting the dimensions in Western Germany. However, migrants overall still form a significantly smaller percentage of the population and other labour market parameters in Eastern Germany, since migration was a lot stronger in Western Germany during the last decades. While on the short run negative effects on unemployment have to be expected, there are also chances, in the medium- and long-term, to soften the expectable demographic problems, if integration and qualification are supported.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Assessing European Competitiveness: The New CompNet Microbased Database
Paloma Lopez-Garcia, Filippo di Mauro
ECB Working Paper,
No. 1764,
2015
Abstract
Drawing from confidential firm-level balance sheets for 17 European countries (13 Euro-Area), the paper documents the newly expanded database of cross-country comparable competitiveness-related indicators built by the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet). The new database provides information on the distribution of labour productivity, TFP, ULC or size of firms in detailed 2-digit industries but also within broad macrosectors or considering the full economy. Most importantly, the expanded database includes detailed information on critical determinants of competitiveness such as the financial position of the firm, its exporting intensity, employment creation or price-cost margins. Both the distribution of all those variables, within each industry, but also their joint analysis with the productivity of the firm provides critical insights to both policy-makers and researchers regarding aggregate trends dynamics. The current database comprises 17 EU countries, with information for 56 industries, including both manufacturing and services, over the period 1995-2012. The paper aims at analysing the structure and characteristics of this novel database, pointing out a number of results that are relevant to study productivity developments and its drivers. For instance, by using covariances between productivity and employment the paper shows that the drop in employment which occurred during the recent crisis appears to have had “cleansing effects” on EU economies, as it seems to have accelerated resource reallocation towards the most productive firms, particularly in economies under stress. Lastly, this paper will be complemented by four forthcoming papers, each providing an in-depth description and methodological overview of each of the main groups of CompNet indicators (financial, trade-related, product and labour market).
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The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
Macroeconomic Dynamics,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
We propose a unified identification scheme to identify monetary shocks and track their propagation through the economy. We combine three approaches dealing with the consequences of monetary shocks. First, we adjust a state space version of the P-star type model employing money overhang as the driving force of inflation. Second, we identify the contemporaneous impact of monetary policy shocks by applying a sign restriction identification scheme to the reduced form given by the state space signal equations. Third, to ensure that our results are not distorted by the measurement error exhibited by the official monetary data, we employ the Divisia M4 monetary aggregate provided by the Center for Financial Stability. Our approach overcomes one of the major difficulties of previous models by using a data-driven identification of equilibrium velocity. Thus, we are able to show that a P-star model can fit U.S. data and money did indeed matter in the United States.
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Isolation and Innovation – Two Contradictory Concepts? Explorative Findings from the German Laser Industry
Wilfried Ehrenfeld, T. Pusch, Muhamed Kudic
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
We apply a network perspective and study the emergence of core-periphery (CP) structures in innovation networks to shed some light on the relationship between isolation and innovation. It has been frequently argued that a firm’s location in a densely interconnected network area improves its ability to access information and absorb technological knowledge. This, in turn, enables a firm to generate new products and services at a higher rate compared to less integrated competitors. However, the importance of peripheral positions for innovation processes is still a widely neglected issue in literature. Isolation may provide unique conditions that induce innovations which otherwise may never have been invented. Such innovations have the potential to lay the ground for a firm’s pathway towards the network core, where the industry’s established technological knowledge is assumed to be located.
The aim of our paper is twofold. Firstly, we propose a new CP indicator and apply it to analyze the emergence of CP patterns in the German laser industry. We employ publicly funded Research and Development (R&D) cooperation project data over a period of more than two decades. Secondly, we explore the paths on which firms move from isolated positions towards the core (and vice versa). Our exploratory results open up a number of new research questions at the intersection between geography, economics and network research.
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Upturn in German Economy, but Economic Policy Creates Headwind: Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2014
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie,
2014
Abstract
The German economy is experiencing an upturn in spring 2014. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year. The 68 percent projection interval ranges from 1.2 percent to 2.6 percent. Domestic demand is the main driver of growth. Consumer prices will increase by a moderate 1.3 percent in 2014. The number of persons in employment looks set to rise steeply once again in 2014. Economic activity, however, will have to weather an economic policy headwind. The entitlement to a full pension as of 63 years is a step in the wrong direction and the introduction of the minimum wage will curb the rise in employment in 2015.
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Banks’ Financial Distress, Lending Supply and Consumption Expenditure
H. Evren Damar, Reint E. Gropp, Adi Mordel
Abstract
We employ a unique identification strategy linking survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures. We show that households whose banks were more exposed to funding shocks report lower levels of non-mortgage liabilities. This, however, does not result in lower levels of consumption. Households compensate by drawing down liquid assets to smooth consumption in the face of a temporary adverse lending supply shock. The results contrast with recent evidence on the real effects of finance on firms’ investment and employment decisions.
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East Germany: Number of subsidized employment has declined significantly
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2012
Abstract
The share of subsidized employment on total employment has declined significantly. But it is still well above the West German level. The decline in subsidized employment is compensated by a sharp increase in non-supported employment. The decline in unemployment has flattened out.
Due to the lower economic growth in the forecasting horizon the number of employees will increase only slightly. Subsidized employment will further decline, also because of more efficient use of labour policy instruments this year. The unemployment rate will amount to 10.4% in 2012 and to 10.2% in 2013.
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