Banks’ Financial Distress, Lending Supply and Consumption Expenditure
H. Evren Damar, Reint E. Gropp, Adi Mordel
Abstract
We employ a unique identification strategy linking survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures. We show that households whose banks were more exposed to funding shocks report lower levels of non-mortgage liabilities. This, however, does not result in lower levels of consumption. Households compensate by drawing down liquid assets to smooth consumption in the face of a temporary adverse lending supply shock. The results contrast with recent evidence on the real effects of finance on firms’ investment and employment decisions.
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Parent Universities and the Location of Academic Startups
S. Heblich, Viktor Slavtchev
Small Business Economics,
No. 1,
2014
Abstract
Academic startups are thought to locate in their parent university’s home region because geographic proximity to a university facilitates access to academic knowledge and resources. In this paper we analyze the importance of a different channel, namely social ties between academic entrepreneurs and university researchers, for the access to academic knowledge and resources, and therefore for the location of the startups. We employ unique data on academic startups from regions with more than one university and find that only the parent university influences academic entrepreneurs’ decisions to stay in the region while other universities in the same region play no role. Our findings suggest that geographic proximity to a university may not per se guarantee access to knowledge and resources; social contacts are additionally required. The importance of social ties implies that academic knowledge and resources are not necessarily local public goods. This holds implications for universities’ role in stimulating regional development.
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Adjustments in the Use of Temporary Agency before and during the 2008/2009 Economic Crisis
Steffen Müller
Industrielle Beziehungen,
No. 1,
2014
Abstract
The use of temporary agency work in Germany strongly increased between 2002 and the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009. This increase was characterised by an intensified use in medium and large manufacturing plants and was concentrated within user firms, i.e. the intensive margin was dominant. These phenomena can be explained with reduced transaction costs and strong international competition and they indicate increased productivity amongst user firms. The sharp decline in the use of temporary agency work during the economic crisis was concentrated among exporters and large manufacturing plants and mostly driven by the extensive margin. Employment opportunities in the temporary work sector were in particular sensitive to changes in the international demand for goods of the German manufacturing sector.
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Arbeitsmarktbilanz Ostdeutschland 2013: Mehr sozialversicherungspflichtige Jobs nur durch Teilzeit
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2013
Abstract
Die Zahl der sozialversicherungspflichtig (SV-pflichtig) Beschäftigten hat in Ostdeutschland im Verlauf dieses Jahres leicht zugenommen. Wie sich SV-pflichtige Vollzeit- und Teilzeitbeschäftigung entwickelt haben, konnte infolge einer Statistikumstellung vorübergehend nicht beurteilt werden. Diese Lücke wurde durch eine kürzlich erschienene Statistik geschlossen. Es hat sich erstens gezeigt, dass aufgrund der Statistikumstellung die Teilzeitquote im Jahr 2010 um 4,6 Prozentpunkte höher war, als davor ausgewiesen wurde. Zweitens ist die Zunahme der SV-pflichtigen Beschäftigung in Ostdeutschland seit Mitte 2011 ausschließlich auf die Zunahme der Teilzeitbeschäftigung zurückzuführen. Hingegen nahm in Westdeutschland auch die Zahl der SV-pflichtig Vollzeitbeschäftigten stetig zu. Eine Ursache für die – verglichen mit Westdeutschland – unterschiedliche Entwicklung dürfte darin liegen, dass in Ostdeutschland vor allem tertiäre Wirtschaftsbereiche mit einem hohen Teilzeitanteil weiter expandiert haben, während die Entwicklung im Produzierenden Gewerbe ungünstiger als in Westdeutschland war. Die Teilzeitquote bei den Sozialversicherungspflichtigen ist im Jahr 2012 in Ostdeutschland erstmals höher als in Westdeutschland. Im Durchschnitt des Jahres 2013 dürfte die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen in Ostdeutschland in etwa auf dem Vorjahresstand liegen. Die Entwicklung der registrierten Arbeitslosigkeit wird – wie in den Jahren zuvor – vom schrumpfenden Arbeitsangebot beeinflusst. Die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte im Jahr 2013 10,2% betragen, nach 10,5% im Vorjahr.
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Reconciling Narrative Monetary Policy Disturbances with Structural VAR Model Shocks?
Martin Kliem, Alexander Kriwoluzky
Economics Letters,
No. 2,
2013
Abstract
Structural VAR studies disagree with narrative accounts about the history of monetary policy disturbances. We investigate whether employing the narrative monetary shocks as a proxy variable in a VAR model aligns both shock series. We find that it does not.
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Economy Picking Up – Put Budget Surpluses To Good Use: Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2013
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie,
2013
Abstract
The German economy is on the verge of an upturn driven by domestic demand. The improving global economic climate and decreasing uncertainty are fuelling investment. Private consumption is benefitting from favourable employment and income prospects. Real gross domestic product looks set to grow by 1.8 percent in 2014, after an increase of just 0.4 percent this year. Consumer prices are expected to rise by a moderate 1.6 percent this year and by 1.9 percent next year. The German public budget will continue to show a surplus.
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Cost of Transaction and the Search for Skilled Workers: A Theoretical Explanation Based on the Theory of Institutions
Herbert S. Buscher, R. Ohliger, Andreas Siegert
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2013
Abstract
Germany will have an increasing need of qualified staff across regions and economical sectors. Not only does this concern highly qualified of so-called MINT-professions (mathematics, IT, natural sciences and technology), but expands to qualified laborers of the health business and the arts and crafts sector. This demand cannot be met through the employment of jobless people from within the country, as the demographic change of a shrinking and ageing population works against it. Societal responsibility thus demands to attract qualified laborers as immigrants. In order to improve Germany’s image as a country of immigration for qualified staff, so-called soft-criteria should be strengthened aside hard facts, like income or employment opportunities. Such a policy actively needs to communicate to migrants that they and their family members are welcome to stay for good. Such an approach has recently been discussed as “Willkommenskultur” (“culture of welcoming”). It signals a change of paradigm in German immigration policy. A policy of „Willkommenskultur“ does not yet exist in Germany, at least it has not yet reached a satisfying level to be recognized and accepted as such by potential immigrants. Based on the theoretical conception of the Institutional Economy, approaches of a political change and its implementation are outlined. Those changes would imply governmental, societal and micro-economical shifts and changes.
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Is There a Gap in the Gap? Regional Differences in the Gender Pay Gap
Boris Hirsch, Marion König, Joachim Möller
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
No. 4,
2013
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate regional differences in the gender pay gap both theoretically and empirically. Within a spatial model of monopsonistic competition, we show that more densely populated labour markets are more competitive and constrain employers’ ability to discriminate against women. Utilizing a large administrative data set for western Germany and a flexible semi-parametric propensity score matching approach, we find that the unexplained gender pay gap for young workers is substantially lower in large metropolitan than in rural areas. This regional gap in the gap of roughly 10 percentage points remained surprisingly constant over the entire observation period of 30 years.
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Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? – Assessing Empirical Effects using Matching Techniques
Eva Dettmann, Jutta Günther
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics,
No. 4,
2013
Abstract
Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function we try to answer the question of whether subsidized vocational training is related to a negative image effect for the graduates. The results show that young people with equal qualifications acquired during subsidized vocational training are disadvantaged solely due to the kind of education they have received. The probability of finding adequate employment is lower than in the control group. Besides the 'general effect' of support we also find less favorable job opportunities for those who attended 'external' as compared to 'workplace-related' training.
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Survival of Spinoffs and Other Startups: First Evidence for the Private Sector in Germany, 1976-2008
Daniel Fackler, Claus Schnabel
Abstract
Using a 50 percent sample of all establishments in the German private sector, we report that spinoffs are larger and initially employ more skilled and more experienced workers than other startups. Controlling for these and other differences, we find that spinoffs are less likely to exit than other startups. We show that in West and East Germany and in all sectors investigated pulled spinoffs (where the parent company continues after they are founded) generally have the lowest exit hazards, followed by pushed spinoffs (where the parent company stops operations). The difference between both types of spinoffs is particularly pronounced in the first three years. Contrary to expectations, intra-industry spinoffs are not found to have lower exit hazards in our sample.
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