Shadow Budgets, Fiscal Illusion and Municipal Spending: The Case of Germany
Peter Haug
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
The paper investigates the existence of fiscal illusion in German municipalities with special focus on the revenues from local public enterprises. These shadow budgets tend to increase the misperception of municipal tax prices and seem to have been neglected in the literature. Therefore, an aggregated expenditure function has been estimated for all German independent cities applying an “integrated budget” approach, which means
that revenues and expenditures of the core budget and the local public enterprises are combined to one single municipal budget. The estimation results suggest that a higher relative share of local public enterprise revenues might increase total per capita spending as well as spending for non-obligatory municipal goods and services. Empirical evidence for other sources of fiscal illusion is mixed but some indications for debt illusion, renter illusion or the flypaper effect could be found.
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The Ending of Solidarity Pact Payments: Are the “Neue Länder” Prepared Sufficiently?
Katja Wilde, Sabine Freye
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2009
Abstract
Up to 2019, the “Neue Länder” in Germany are benefitting from financial transfer within the framework of the solidarity pact. From 2005 to 2007, the “Neue Länder” were able to improve they financial situation and used the solidarity pact payments efficiently. However, these payments are decreasing annually. This implies a significant financial reduction to the “Neue Länder’s” overall budgets and a considerable challenge for their future investments. This article analyses publications by the governments of the “Neue Länder” about their medium term budget planning and related progress reports from the year 2006. The consolidation of their budgets seems to be an essential aspect in the policy strategy of “Neue Länder” due to limited tax autonomy and legal restrictions on their expenditures. However, we identified several consolidation strategies with regard to infrastructural priorities, restructuring of administration, and creation of reserves. The public revenues of the “Neue Länder” are expected to decline in 2009 due to the current recession. In case that there are no fundamental changes in the underlying economic structures, the financial scope of the “Neue Länder” is going to be increasingly constrained, in particular with regard to future investments.
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Economic Stimulus Packages and their Effects – A Simulation with the IWH Macroeconometric Model
Rolf Scheufele
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
This article deals with the macroeconomic effects of different economic stimulus packages. It evaluates several measures including direct tax cuts, a reduction of the contribution payment to social security, an increase in government spending and a temporary cut of the value added tax rate. Further, the measures of the latest economic stimulus packages are assessed and it is found that their effects on production and employment are only of moderate size.
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Economic Effects of the Halle Institute for Economic Research
Ulrich Blum
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
The most important approach to assess the scholarly performance of an institute is to evaluate its academic output. Economic research institutes such as the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) furthermore are targeted at providing policy advice to public authorities. This adds an additional criterion, the ability to impact policy discussions in Germany and beyond.
A rarely discussed issue is the effect of an institute on the local economy. The IWH is located in a region of East Germany that is still catching up economically. Transformation problems are still very visible. In such an economic environment, the expenditures of an institute play an important role in stabilizing local demand. The analysis shows, by using input-output-methods, that the most important factor for the local economy is the demand stemming from wages earned by the employees of the institute. Especially the local area, where most of the staff lives, heavily benefits from this effect. Expenditures of about 4.6 million Euros which include the salaries of the staff of about 70 persons generates sufficient demand in the area to guarantee employment for another 35 persons. In addition, as crowding out of activities by additional demand is presently not an issue in East Germany, the taxes generated account for a considerable part of the budget.
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Russia: Ongoing Strong Economic Growth Overshadowed by High Inflation
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2008
Abstract
Russian economic growth in 2007 again was driven by strong private consumption and investment, grew by double-digit rates. The roles of budget expenditures and borrowing of private and state-owned firms from abroad in financing investments increased rapidly. Russian inflation climbed again; it was driven up by increases in food prices in line with rising food prices around the world. Inflation pressures had sharpened through more budget spending and scheduled rate increases for electricity and gas as well as for regulated prices for municipal services. Broad money supply (M2) rose rapidly because of strong foreign currency inflows, too. Central bank seeks to bring inflation under control by tightening monetary policy this year. That will somewhat dampen economic growth, but nevertheless GDP growth in the near future will remain at high levels.
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The Maximum Level of Fines Restricts the Effect of European Competition Law
Henry Dannenberg, Nicole Steinat
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2008
Abstract
In 2006, the fining guidelines for competition law infringements were completely renewed. The aim of this reform was twofold: on the one hand to decrease the incentive for cartelization and on the other hand to increase the likelihood of cartel detection.
The article studies how company’s decision for or against a cartel is influenced by these guidelines. We show that due to the maximum level of fines – which refers to the worldwide group turnover - an effective deterrence level can be achieved only for those companies, which realize just a small part of their turnover in the relevant market. Their incentive to blow the whistle increases with the cartel duration. This leads to a rising instability of cartels where one member generates only a small part of its turnover in the relevant market. In contrast, the deterrence level for companies that realize a large part of their sales in the relevant market is quite low due to the maximum level of fines.
The article gives a short overview of the risk factor competition law – from a company perspective. We illustrate how the expenditures related to cartel law infringements can be calculated. Further on, the minimum profit margins that are necessary for an economically advantageous cartel are determined. We show that for certain types of cartels already small rates of return are sufficient to make cartel participation attractive.
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The German Upswing Takes a Break
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
2. Sonderausgabe
2007
Abstract
The world economy continues to expand healthily, but risks have increased during summer. The crisis of the housing sector in the US has deepened: A revaluation of mortgage backed assets has triggered turbulences on global financial markets. The institutes expect that financial markets will calm down during the coming months, but that the downswing in the US will slow the pace of the world economy. The economy in the euro area will, in addition, be dampened by the appreciation of the euro. The German economy is, in spite of a restrictive fiscal policy, in a robust upswing. Because wage setting and inflation continues to be moderate, there will be no need for a restrictive monetary policy. Thus the German economy will, due to slower demand from the US and higher costs of financing, lose momentum, but chances are good that the upswing will only take a break. In the coming year private consumption is expected to be the main contributor to growth, because wage incomes will expand strongly. Unemployment will continue to shrink, albeit at a smaller rate than during 2007. Fiscal policy will no longer be restrictive. Economic policy has improved the conditions for growth in Germany; there is, however, still much to do. Public finances have to be consolidated further, but at the same time, public investment has to be strengthened. This can be achieved if public consumptive expenditure growth is limited. The institutes suggest to increase public expenditure by 2% per annum over the cycle in nominal terms; this is, by less than by the trend growth rate of nominal GDP.
The institutes advise against a reversal of the recent labour market reforms. Instead, incentives for taking up jobs should be increased further.
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Business Cycle Update Summer 2007: German Upswing Still Healthy
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
In the summer of 2007, the economies of the European Union and Japan continue their upswing, while the USA is still suffering from economic weakness. The expansion of the East Asian economies remains highly dynamic. Compared to the beginning of the year, conditions at the global financial markets have deteriorated slightly: Long-term interest rates have risen considerably; with notably more than half of a percentage point the increase was especially pronounced in the Euro Area. Furthermore, markets have become increasingly volatile. The less favourable conditions at the global financial markets, among other reasons, will cause the upswing in the Euro Area and Japan to slightly slow down. While the USA will not enter a phase of stagnation, the economy will continue to expand at rates below its potential until 2008. In Germany, the economic recovery took a temporary break in the first half of 2007. While special circumstances (first, brought forward purchases in anticipation of the increase in the value added tax and second, the high construction activity because of the end of home owners subsidies) raised considerably economic activity towards the end of 2006, they caused a downturn in demand in the beginning of 2007. After this short dip, the upswing will recommence. Private consumption will be the main driving force, as incomes have increased considerably in the wake of the improved labour markets conditions. The upswing will continue next year, albeit at a slower pace. Higher interest rates, the appreciation of the Euro and the expected rise in labour costs will have some impact. Overall domestic demand will slow down, but only a little, as household consumption increases. GDP will expand by 2.6% and 2.5% in this and next year, respectively. The number of unemployed persons will decline below 3.5 million in 2008.
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Institutionelle Defizite und wachsende Spannungen in der Euro-Zone
Hubert Gabrisch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2007
Abstract
The introduction of the Euro was certainly a success. Nevertheless, behind this success one may find some increasing asymmetries and imbalances across member countries, which may undermine the stability of the common currency in the long run. Tensions include the paralysis of fiscal policy, increasing divergence in per capita income, a high volatility of real state prices, and diverging unit labour cost developments. The given forms of macroeconomic coordination seem not to be appropriate to mitigate the problems. Obviously, countries can compete with wage policy only after currencies and their exchange rates were abolished, and the use of fiscal policy has been restricted. In particular, Germany and Austria were successful in competitive wage policy, while countries like Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy, and also France did not yet use the competitiveness channel. Germany was able to reduce its unit labour costs more than other countries by labour market reforms and higher indirect taxes in replacing social taxes. However, the advantage may proof to be temporary only, for other countries will be forced to follow the German example. Given an ECB inflation target of 2 %, more competitive wage policy in the Euro area might jeopardize the stability of the currency through deflation and higher unemployment. It does not wonder that the discussion on other and new forms of macroeconomic coordination revived recently. This debate does not only include the introduction of a central EU budget with anti-cyclical effects, but also forms of direct and indirect coordination of national wage policies. In any case, it would be useful to oblige national wage policies to obey the common interest of the Union.
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Local Public Utilities' Profits and Municipal Expenses in Germany: An Empirical Analysis
Peter Haug, Birger Nerré
Proceedings of the 99th Annual Conference on Taxation (November 16-18), Washington DC,
2006
Abstract
German municipalities are currently struggling with growing budget deficits and other financial hardships. From a public choice point of view it seems tempting for vote-maximizing local governments to raise revenues from sources which create fiscal illusion or allow tax exports. An increasingly important revenue source of this kind are profits of local public utilities. In this paper we try to fill an empirical gap and provide data of the development of the profitability over time for selected German local public utilities. Furthermore, we develop and estimate a municipal expenditure function for a panel data set of large German cities . We found some slightly positive relationship between per capita expenses of the municipality and the disposable per capita profits of the local public utilities. This indicates that probably the German municipalities – according to our theoretical considerations – tend to burden their citizens as well as non-voters outside their boundaries with implicit taxes to satisfy their increasing financial needs.
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