Krise wird allmählich überwunden – Handeln an geringerem Wachstum ausrichten
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie,
No. 2,
2021
Abstract
Die wirtschaftliche Lage in Deutschland ist nach wie vor von der Corona-Pandemie gekennzeichnet. Nachdem neue Infektionswellen die Erholung im Winterhalbjahr 2020/2021 verzögert hatten, steigt das Bruttoinlandsprodukt seit dem Abebben des Infektionsgeschehens im Frühjahr nun wieder deutlich. Allerdings behindern im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe Lieferengpässe bei Vorprodukten die Produktion, sodass nur die konsumnahen Dienstleistungsbranchen zulegen. Im Winterhalbjahr dürfte die Erholung weiterhin gebremst werden. So ist davon auszugehen, dass in der kalten Jahreszeit die Aktivität im Dienstleistungsgewerbe auch bei geringem Infektionsgeschehen unter dem sonst üblichen Niveau bleiben wird. Zudem werden die Lieferengpässe die Produktion im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe vorerst weiter belasten. Im kommenden Jahr dürften die Beeinträchtigungen durch Pandemie und Lieferengpässe nach und nach zurückgehen, sodass die Normalauslastung wieder erreicht wird. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2021 um 2,4% und im Jahr 2022 um 4,8% zulegen. Die Institute rechnen – nicht zuletzt infolge erhöhter Energiekosten – mit einem Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise um 3% im laufenden Jahr und um 2,5% im Jahr 2022. Das Defizit der öffentlichen Haushalte dürfte von 4,9% in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr auf 2,1% im Folgejahr zurückgehen. Angesichts der kräftigen Zunahme des nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird die öffentliche Schuldenstandsquote wohl von 71% im Jahr 2021 auf 67% im Jahr 2022 abnehmen. Zwar dürften die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Corona-Krise mit der Rückkehr zur Normalauslastung allmählich überwunden werden, aber die Herausforderungen des Klimawandels und das demografisch bedingt absehbar niedrigere Wirtschaftswachstum führen zu geringeren Konsummöglichkeiten.
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06.10.2021 • 24/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: Bankruptcy Figures Remain Low; More Manufacturing Jobs Impacted
The number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany remained near to a historic low in September. However, there was a considerable increase in the share of manufacturing jobs impacted by bankruptcy. These are the key findings of the IWH Bankruptcy Update, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), which provides monthly statistics on corporate bankruptcies in Germany.
Steffen Müller
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14.09.2021 • 23/2021
Production bottlenecks delay recovery
The German recovery made good progress over the summer 2021. However, bottlenecks in sea transport and the production of intermediate goods are weighing on world trade. The rise in raw material prices has prompted inflation rates to spike, and an increase in new infections is clouding the outlook again. A weak final quarter is therefore to be expected. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.2% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022 (East Germany: 1.8% and 2.8%).
Oliver Holtemöller
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The Impact of Delay: Evidence from Formal Out-of-Court Restructuring
Randall K. Filer, Dejan Kovač, Jacob N. Shapiro, Stjepan Srhoj
Abstract
Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a „pre-bankruptcy settlement“ (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor-creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms‘ future prospects.
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07.09.2021 • 22/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: Ongoing Decline in Bankruptcy Statistics
After hitting an all-time low in July, the number of firms declaring bankruptcy in Germany fell yet again in August. A new low was also registered in the number of impacted jobs. These are the headline findings of the IWH Bankruptcy Report, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), which provides a monthly update on German bankruptcy statistics.
Steffen Müller
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05.08.2021 • 21/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: Bankruptcies in Germany Fall to an All-time Low
The number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany fell to a historic low in July, and are not anticipated to trend higher in August, according to IWH’s leading indicators. The IWH Bankruptcy Update, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), provides monthly statistics on corporate bankruptcies in Germany.
Steffen Müller
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Paid Vacation Use: The Role of Works Councils
Laszlo Goerke, Sabrina Jeworrek
Economic and Industrial Democracy,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
The article investigates the relationship between codetermination at the plant level and paid vacation in Germany. From a legal perspective, works councils have no impact on vacation entitlements, but they can affect their use. Employing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), the study finds that male employees who work in an establishment, in which a works council exists, take almost two additional days of paid vacation annually, relative to employees in an establishment without such institution. The effect for females is much smaller, if discernible at all. The data suggest that this gender gap might be due to the fact that women exploit vacation entitlements more comprehensively than men already in the absence of a works council.
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29.07.2021 • 20/2021
Communication instead of conflict – why are female CEOs so interesting for hedge funds
The value of female-led firms is enhanced more by the intervention of activist investors than that of firms with male CEOs. This is the result of a recent paper by Iftekhar Hasan (Fordham University and IWH) and Qiang Wu (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, RPI) at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). "The results show that female CEOs particularly benefit from the intervention of hedge fund activists due to their strong communication and interpersonal skills," explains Iftekhar Hasan. This is because, on average, the intervention of an activist hedge fund increases the value of the firm ex post. To achieve this, activist hedge funds such as Carl Icahn, Trian Fundmanagement or Elliott prefer to rely on communication and cooperation with the management.
Reint E. Gropp
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06.07.2021 • 18/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: June Data Incomplete – Small Forecasted Increase in Bankruptcies
Despite incomplete June data, the month-over-month increase in German corporate bankruptcies is projected to be small. Furthermore, the increase is largely attributable to the higher number of business days in June, according to the IWH Bankruptcy Report, which is published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) and provides a monthly update on German bankruptcy statistics.
Steffen Müller
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24.06.2021 • 17/2021
Loneliness during the pandemic – social isolation increases the likelihood of selfish behaviour
Social distancing as a counter-measure to the COVID-19 pandemic has far-reaching social consequences which have so far hardly been discussed from an economic perspective. This is demonstrated in a study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). “Experiencing social isolation resulted in the participants in our study making more selfish decisions,” says the author of the study, Sabrina Jeworrek, Assistant Professor at Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg and head of research group in the Department of Structural Change and Productivity at IWH.
Sabrina Jeworrek
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