21.12.2015 • 47/2015
Flüchtlingsmigration – Eine globale humanitäre Krise erreicht Deutschland
Täglich suchen tausende von Flüchtlingen Asyl in Europa. Die gegenwärtige Situation trägt krisenhafte Züge, unter anderem, weil das bestehende Asylsystem in Europa grundsätzliche Probleme aufweist. Es ist der momentanen Lage nicht gewachsen – und das, obwohl die Problematik an sich nicht neu ist. Die Integration der ankommenden Menschen in Gesellschaft und Arbeitsmarkt hat sprachliche, qualifikatorische, kulturelle und politische Dimensionen. In einem heute erscheinenden Policy Brief des Leibniz-Forschungsverbunds „Krisen einer globalisierten Welt“ wird die aktuelle Flüchtlingsmigration nach Europa aus verschiedenen Perspektiven betrachtet und Literatur aus den beteiligten Instituten zu diesem Thema in einen Kontext gesetzt.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Refugee Migration – A Global Humanitarian Crisis Reaches Germany
Policy Brief Nr. 01/2015,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
In this Policy Brief, the issue of current refugee migration to Europe will be discussed from various perspectives and literature on this topic from the participating institutes will be put into context. The current situation bears characteristics of a crisis. On the one hand this is due to the high numbers of refugees. On the other hand, there are fundamental problems with the existing asylum system in Europe, meaning that it is unable to handle the situation effectively – even though the problem itself is not new. The integration of incoming people into society and the labour market has linguistic, qualification-related, cultural and political dimensions.
In the Leibniz Research Alliance 'Crises in a Globalised World', 23 Leibniz institutes are working together in an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary manner to enhance understanding of the mechanisms and dynamics of crises and their mutual interdependencies.
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16.12.2015 • 45/2015
German Economy: Strong domestic demand compensates for weak exports
The upturn of the German economy is expected to gain further momentum as a consequence of strong domestic demand. Real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.6% in 2016. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.9%. Unemployment is expected to rise slightly because it will take time to integrate refugees into the labour market.
Oliver Holtemöller
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03.12.2015 • 44/2015
Migration Affects Labour Market in Eastern Germany
Migration increasingly affects the labour market in Eastern Germany, having effects on employment and unemployment figures as well as the number of recipients of social assistance benefits under the SGB II regulations. Particularly with countries in Middle and Eastern Europe, countries affected by the European debt and confidence crisis and with people seeking asylum, there are large increases meeting the dimensions in Western Germany. However, migrants overall still form a significantly smaller percentage of the population and other labour market parameters in Eastern Germany, since migration was a lot stronger in Western Germany during the last decades. While on the short run negative effects on unemployment have to be expected, there are also chances, in the medium- and long-term, to soften the expectable demographic problems, if integration and qualification are supported.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Joint Forecast: Migration of Refugees will Challenge Economic Policy
Roland Döhrn, Ferdinand Fichtner, Oliver Holtemöller, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 10,
2015
Abstract
According to the Autumn 2015 Joint Forecast German GDP will grow by 1.8% in this year and in the next year also. Thus the business cycle upswing will continue to be moderate. Lower growth in the emerging markets will show a dampening effect on exports whereas private consumption will gain momentum, given a strong labor market and an increase in real wages. However, new workers are increasingly recruited from the non-active population and among immigrants, leaving unemployment more or less unchanged. In the next year, the huge current inflow of refugees will increasingly influence the number of unemployed. For economic policy the challenge is to integrate refugees into the labour market as soon as possible.
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The Structure and Evolution of Inter-sectoral Technological Complementarity in R&D in Germany from 1990 to 2011
T. Broekel, Matthias Brachert
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
No. 4,
2015
Abstract
Technological complementarity is argued to be a crucial element for effective R&D collaboration. The real structure is, however, still largely unknown. Based on the argument that organizations’ knowledge resources must fit for enabling collective learning and innovation, we use the co-occurrence of firms in collaborative R&D projects in Germany to assess inter-sectoral technological complementarity between 129 sectors. The results are mapped as complementarity space for the Germany economy. The space and its dynamics from 1990 to 2011 are analyzed by means of social network analysis. The results illustrate sectors being complements both from a dyadic and portfolio/network perspective. This latter is important, as complementarities may only become fully effective when integrated in a complete set of different knowledge resources from multiple sectors. The dynamic perspective moreover reveals the shifting demand for knowledge resources among sectors at different time periods.
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Ostdeutsche Wirtschaft: Konjunktur bleibt im Jahr 2015 kräftig, strukturelle Probleme hemmen
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß, Cornelia Lang, Axel Lindner, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig, Birgit Schultz
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 3,
2015
Abstract
Die Wirtschaft in Ostdeutschland (ohne Berlin) dürfte im Jahr 2015 um 1,5% expandieren. Sie partizipiert dank der engen Integration in den gesamtdeutschen Konjunkturverbund am bundesweiten Aufschwung des privaten Konsums und der Investitionen. Wegen der überwiegenden Orientierung der Exporte auf den Euroraum und die angrenzenden mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder dürfte die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft auch von der dort einsetzenden Erholung profitieren. Allerdings gibt der Handel mit Russland wohl weiter nach.
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11.08.2015 • 31/2015
Konjunktur aktuell: Ostdeutsche Wirtschaft: Konjunktur bleibt im Jahr 2015 kräftig, strukturelle Probleme hemmen
Die Wirtschaft in Ostdeutschland (ohne Berlin) dürfte im Jahr 2015 um 1,5% expandieren. Sie partizipiert dank der engen Integration in den gesamtdeutschen Konjunkturverbund am bundesweiten Aufschwung des privaten Konsums und der Investitionen. Wegen der überwiegenden Orientierung der Exporte auf den Euroraum und die angrenzenden mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder dürfte die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft auch von der dort einsetzenden Erholung profitieren. Allerdings gibt der Handel mit Russland wohl weiter nach.
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Consequences of China’s Opening to Foreign Banks
Ran Li, Xiang Li, Wen Lei, Yiping Huang
L. Song, R. Garnaut, C. Fang, L. Johnston (eds.), China's Domestic Transformation in a Global Context. Acton: ANU Press,
forthcoming
Abstract
China’s government has recently implemented additional reforms to relax the regulatory environment for foreign banks. Specifically, State Council Order No. 657, signed by Premier Li Keqiang, announced a decision to revise the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on the Administration of Foreign-Funded Banks, effective from 1 January 2015. Implications of the revised regulations include removal of the requirement that a minimum of RMB100 million operating capital be transferred unconditionally from the overseas parent bank to the newly opened Chinese branch. In addition, in terms of the conditions attached to the right to carry out RMB-denominated activity, foreign banks are now eligible to apply to undertake local currency business after operating in China for one year—down from the previous three years. The requirement for two consecutive years of profit will be scrapped as well.
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On the Twin Deficits Hypothesis and the Import Intensity in Transition Countries
Hubert Gabrisch
International Economics and Economic Policy,
No. 2,
2015
Abstract
This article aims to explain the increasing deficits in the trade and current account balances of three post-transition countries–Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland–by testing two hypotheses: the twin deficit hypothesis and increasing import intensity of export production. The method uses co-integration and related techniques to test for a long-run causal relationship between the fiscal and external deficits of three post-transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, an import intensity model is tested by applying OLS and GMM. All the results reject the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. Instead, the results demonstrate that specific transition factors such as net capital flows and, probably, a high import intensity of exports affect the trade balance.
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