Robots, Occupations, and Worker Age: A Production-unit Analysis of Employment
Liuchun Deng, Steffen Müller, Verena Plümpe, Jens Stegmaier
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 5,
2023
Abstract
We analyse the impact of robot adoption on employment composition using novel micro data on robot use in German manufacturing plants linked with social security records and data on job tasks. Our task-based model predicts more favourable employment effects for the least routine-task intensive occupations and for young workers, with the latter being better at adapting to change. An event-study analysis of robot adoption confirms both predictions. We do not find adverse employment effects for any occupational or age group, but churning among low-skilled workers rises sharply. We conclude that the displacement effect of robots is occupation biased but age neutral, whereas the reinstatement effect is age biased and benefits young workers most.
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Correlation Scenarios and Correlation Stress Testing
Natalie Packham, Fabian Wöbbeking
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,
January
2023
Abstract
We develop a general approach for stress testing correlations of financial asset portfolios. The correlation matrix of asset returns is specified in a parametric form, where correlations are represented as a function of risk factors, such as country and industry factors. A sparse factor structure linking assets and risk factors is built using Bayesian variable selection methods. Regular calibration yields a joint distribution of economically meaningful stress scenarios of the factors. As such, the method also lends itself as a reverse stress testing framework: using the Mahalanobis distance or Highest Density Regions (HDR) on the joint risk factor distribution allows to infer worst-case correlation scenarios. We give examples of stress tests on a large portfolio of European and North American stocks.
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17.08.2022 • 19/2022
Labour mobility is part of structural change
The coal phase-out will also change the affected regions in that part of the workforce will migrate. Politicians should take this process into account in structural policy, because it cannot be completely prevented. A study published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) illustrates this with a historical example.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Does Working at a Start-up Pay Off?
Daniel Fackler, Lisa Hölscher, Claus Schnabel, Antje Weyh
Small Business Economics,
No. 4,
2022
Abstract
Using representative linked employer-employee data for Germany, this paper analyzes short- and long-run differences in labor market performance of workers joining start-ups instead of incumbent firms. Applying entropy balancing and following individuals over ten years, we find huge and long-lasting drawbacks from entering a start-up in terms of wages, yearly income, and (un)employment. These disadvantages hold for all groups of workers and types of start-ups analyzed. Although our analysis of different subsequent career paths highlights important heterogeneities, it does not reveal any strategy through which workers joining start-ups can catch up with the income of similar workers entering incumbent firms.
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09.11.2021 • 27/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: Still No Indication of Impending Bankruptcy Wave
The number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany edged slightly upward in October following several months of historic lows. The number of jobs impacted by bankruptcy also remained unusually depressed. These are the headline figures from this month’s IWH Bankruptcy Update, a report on German bankruptcy statistics published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Steffen Müller
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Worker Participation in Decision-making, Worker Sorting, and Firm Performance
Steffen Müller, Georg Neuschäffer
Industrial Relations,
No. 4,
2021
Abstract
Worker participation in decision-making is often associated with high-wage and high-productivity firm strategies. Using linked employer–employee data for Germany and worker fixed effects from a two-way fixed-effects model of wages capturing observed and unobserved worker quality, we find that plants with formal worker participation via works councils indeed employ higher quality workers. We show that worker quality is already higher in plants before council introduction and further increases after the introduction. Importantly, we corroborate previous studies by showing positive productivity and profitability effects even after taking into account worker sorting.
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06.10.2021 • 24/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: Bankruptcy Figures Remain Low; More Manufacturing Jobs Impacted
The number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany remained near to a historic low in September. However, there was a considerable increase in the share of manufacturing jobs impacted by bankruptcy. These are the key findings of the IWH Bankruptcy Update, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), which provides monthly statistics on corporate bankruptcies in Germany.
Steffen Müller
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The Nexus between Loan Portfolio Size and Volatility: Does Bank Capital Regulation Matter?
Franziska Bremus, Melina Ludolph
Journal of Banking and Finance,
June
2021
Abstract
This paper analyzes the effects of bank capital regulation on the link between bank size and volatility. Using bank-level data for 27 advanced economies over the 2000–2014 period, we estimate a power law that relates the volume of a bank’s loan portfolio to the volatility of loan growth. Our analysis reveals, first, that more stringent capital regulation weakens the size-volatility nexus. Hence, in countries with more stringent capital regulation, large banks show, ceteris paribus, lower loan portfolio volatility. Second, the effect of tighter capital requirements on the size-volatility nexus becomes stronger for the upper tail of the bank size distribution. This is in line with capitalization decreasing with bank size, such that larger banks tend to be more affected by increasing capital requirements. Third, in countries with higher sectoral capital buffers, the size-volatility nexus is weaker.
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08.06.2021 • 14/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: Still No Bankruptcy Wave in Sight; Number of Impacted Jobs Reaches New Low
In May the number of corporate bankruptcies once again fell significantly. A jump in June is also unlikely, according to early indicators assessed by IWH. The number of jobs impacted by bankruptcy has fallen to the lowest level witnessed since the Corona outbreak. The IWH Bankruptcy Report, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), provides a monthly update on German bankruptcy statistics.
Steffen Müller
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