Financial Stability
Financial Systems: The Anatomy of the Market Economy How the financial system is...
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East Germany
The Nasty Gap 30 years after unification: Why East Germany is still 20% poorer than the...
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Demographic Change
Demographic Change Dossier ...
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Loose (Interview)
When there were almost no flats in Halle yet ... Brigitte Loose about IWH's...
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Working Papers
Macroeconomic Effects from Sovereign Risk vs. Knightian Uncertainty ...
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Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters ...
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Tasks
Tasks of the IWH Guided by its mission statement , the IWH places the...
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02.02.2023 • 2/2023
Economic growth, public finances and greenhouse gas emissions in the medium term
According to the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) and its medium-term projection of the German economy, growth in the next six years will be about the same as in the past six years, at 1% per year. The national budget will remain in deficit, but the debt level will decline again relative to the gross domestic product (GDP) from 2024 onwards. At this rate of economic expansion, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to decline in the medium term, but at a much slower rate than necessary to meet the national emission reduction targets.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Dynamic Equity Slope
Matthijs Breugem, Stefano Colonnello, Roberto Marfè, Francesca Zucchi
University of Venice Ca' Foscari Department of Economics Working Papers,
No. 21,
2020
Abstract
The term structure of equity and its cyclicality are key to understand the risks drivingequilibrium asset prices. We propose a general equilibrium model that jointly explainsfour important features of the term structure of equity: (i) a negative unconditionalterm premium, (ii) countercyclical term premia, (iii) procyclical equity yields, and (iv)premia to value and growth claims respectively increasing and decreasing with thehorizon. The economic mechanism hinges on the interaction between heteroskedasticlong-run growth — which helps price long-term cash flows and leads to countercyclicalrisk premia — and homoskedastic short-term shocks in the presence of limited marketparticipation — which produce sizeable risk premia to short-term cash flows. The slopedynamics hold irrespective of the sign of its unconditional average. We provide empirical support to our model assumptions and predictions.
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Special Issue on Productivity: Introduction
Filippo di Mauro
Singapore Economic Review,
No. 5,
2020
Abstract
At the time we write this introduction, the world is entering a second phase of the COVID-pandemic, where all countries in the world attempt to gradually reopen after the tremendous shock on lives and economic activity. The focus of the policies right now is very much on short-term interventions aimed at alleviating the financial strains on households and firms, thus fostering a quicker recovery. In the medium and long-term perspective, however, it would be essential to parallel such policies with appropriate interventions aimed at strengthening the aggregate productivity of the economy, with the objective of increasing resilience and foster more solid growth foundations.
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