Macroeconomic Modelling of the German Economy in the Framework of Euroland
Rüdiger Pohl, Heinz P. Galler
Schriften des IWH,
No. 11,
2002
Abstract
An attempt to develop a new macroeconometric model for Germany is confronted with several questions that range from the general rationality of such an approach to specific problems of an appropriate model structure. One important aspect of this discussion is the introduction of the Euro as a common currency of the European monetary union. This institutional change may result in structural breaks due to changing behavior of economic agents. In addition, the definition of the spatial unit that is appropriate for modelling becomes a problem. Additional problems come from the introduction of the European Single Market and the increasing international economic integration not only within the European union but also beyond its borders. And in the case of Germany, the unification of the West and the East demand special attention. Last but not least, the harmonization of national accounting for the member states of the European Union has to be dealt with. Thus, the introduction of the Euro as a common currency is just one problem besides others that must be addressed.
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Germany: Cyclical Improvement not Until the End of the Year
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2001
Abstract
During the second quarter of 2001 German overall production stagnated. Weak global development muddied the economic prospects of firms and prevented them from rising their output and their investment activities. In 2001 gross national product will only increase by 1%; the number of unemployed will be higher than expected. Nevertheless, we advise against an increase in public expenditure that aims at stimulating the economy. Anyhow, growing public deficits, caused by cyclical movements, should be accepted. In order to increase employment labour market reforms become more urgent.
In East Germany, currently even a decline in gross national product cannot be excluded. After the first period of restructuring, which has been accompanied by structural problems, cyclical movements become more important. In addition, economic stagnation burdens labour markets. Nonetheless trying to stimulate the East German economy by government spending programmes does not seem to be a viable strategy. From the cyclical point of view they are not very efficient and concerning structural problems they are no solution.
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Business cycle in Germany: Bottom phase almost completed
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2001
Abstract
In the report, the economic situation in Germany and in the Eurozone in the current year 2001 and in the following year 2002 is analyzed and forecasted in detail. Due to the unfavorable global economic situation and the unexpectedly high inflation, GDP growth has been slowing down in Germany in the year 2001. In 2002, growth will regain momentum. In the remaining course of this year, inflation will abate, thus allowing the European Central Bank leeway for an ease in monetary policy, provided wage increases remain moderate. Due to the cyclically lower revenues and higher expenditures, the public deficit will be temporarily higher than projected in the Stability Program. This should not be counteracted so as not to further endanger economic growth. The main National Accounts data for Germany are summarized in a detailed table in the appendix.
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Methodical limits of calculating productivity in the new Länder
Gerald Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 129,
2000
Abstract
The „Arbeitskreis Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung der Länder“ now publishes figures concerning the value added in Germany. Formerly the Statistische Bundesamt had this assignment. Some corporations have plant locations in the new Länder as well as in the old Länder. The employed method for splitting-up the value added produce by these corporations might lead to an underestimation of the overall value added produced in the new Länder. However, an estimation using the firm panel of the IAB shows that the East German productivity gap for manufacturing is overestimated by maximally two percentage points. Still in sectors that are dominated by multi plant corporations this effect is stronger. All in all the East German productivity gab is overestimated by maximally three percentage points.
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Structural change, specialization patterns, and the productivity gap between Central and Eastern Europe and the European Union
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 13,
2000
Abstract
The transition countries of Central East Europe exhibit significantly lower productivity levels than that of the average of the 15 European Union countries. Since the outset of transition, however, this gap has clearly narrowed.
Next to technological and organisational factors it is sectoral structures which play an important role for the development and level of national productivities: in most transition economies, structural change clearly contributed positively to productivity growth. Poland is an exception here, no significant effect of structural change between sectors and industrial branches on the growth of the national productivity level could be found. The low intensity of structural adjustment in Poland in particular in the agricultural sector corresponds with a decisive role played by the sectoral pattern of specialisation within the European division of labour as determinant of the productivity gap. Hungary and to some degree also Slovenia, the country with the lowest productivity gap, exhibit similar results. Only in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia remain negligible the explanatory powers of respective patterns of specialisation as productivity determinants.
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Human capital in transformation – The example of the new Länder
Ralf Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 126,
2000
Abstract
The human capital of a nation is highly correlated to its productivity. Thus, differences in human capital may be seen as one factor determining the productivity gap between East and West Germany. However, a disadvantage of East Germany with regard to hu-man capital only shows up as long as it concerns skills that are built up on the job, i.e., by learning by doing; even more, this disadvantage has been decreasing in the 1990's. In contrast, as long as it concerns skills that have been acquired through formal education, East Germany has a high level of human capital in comparison to West Germany. In general, the problem of East Germany’s human capital proves to be rather demand-sided. It may be due to East Germany’s low skill-intensive industry structure.
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East German economy 2000 and 2001: Further growth in overall production despite new slump in construction industry
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2000
Abstract
For the first time the main economic indicators for East Germany are presented in terms of the New European System of National Accounts (ESA)up to 1999. Insights are given into the sectoral composition of gross domestic product and employment. The article presents forecasts for 2000 und 2001 for the sectors “manufacturing“, “construction“ and “services“.
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East German economy between high in industry and low in construction also in 2000
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2000
Abstract
The article presents the forcast of the economic development in East Germany up to the year 2001. Because of the strong orientation to national markets it is expected that the East German economy will benefit from the domestically based development in the West. In detail the article analyzes the economic growth in the sectors “manufacturing“ and “construction“.
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The new European system of macroeconomic accounting 1995 hardly changed the economic situation for Germany
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Ruth Grunert
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
1999
Abstract
In diesem Beitrag wird dargelegt, wie sich die im April 1999 vom Statistischen Bundesamt vorgestellten Änderungen der Daten der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen im Rah-men der Umstellung auf das Europäische System Volkswirtschaftlicher Gesamtrechnungen (ESVG) 1995 auf den bisher bekannten Konjunkturverlauf des Bruttoinlandsprodukts und seiner Bestandteile ausgewirkt haben. Für diesen Vergleich wurden die alten VGR-Daten auf die Preisbasis 1995 umgerechnet und der Konjunkturverlauf saisonbereinigt.
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Innovative Milieux: Advanced Posts of Interpenetration between the Economic System and the Science System
Peter Franz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 71,
1998
Abstract
A growing number of governments, political parties, and enterprises set the theme „innovation“ on their agenda and join in the global race to more competitive national economies. In this race the concept of the „innovative milieu“ serves as an important point of orientation and as a political target that, on the first glance, seems to be transferable in concrete political measures. A basic feature of innovative milieux is the quick and easy transfer of knowledge to products in demand. This speed-up in the diffusion of knowledge is not only interesting with respect to the economic advantages but also with respect to science. It is the basic thesis of this paper that innovative milieux represent special cases where the economic system and the science system interpenetrate in an extreme way. Empirical findings show that the actors of innovative milieux have a strong cultural proximity to basic attitudes and behavior within the science system. This relates to the institutionalization of trial and error, the reinforcement of exploratory behavior, the flow of information, and to a special mixture of cooperation and competition. An essential feature of innovative milieux derives from the network relations of its actors. These relations have to be balanced a) to the need to create trust and reduce uncertainty, and b) to the need to stay permeable enough for linkages with new actors from outside. With regard to time innovative milieux have to be conceived from an evolutionary perspective. This involves several steps: Development of prerequisites, consolidation, attraction of labor and enterprises from other regions. From the evolutionary perspective, too, possible factors of preventing or accelerating the „entropic death“ (Camagni 1991) of innovative milieux can be discussed. The exceptional character of innovative milieux has consequences for innovation-oriented political strategies. The self-enforcing dynamics of innovative milieux create a tendency to more economic inequality between regions (core-periphery differences). This is contradictory to political strategies in which innovation-oriented policy is applied to reach an offset between prospering and impoverished regions. In many cases a strategy starting from the assumption of an enduring non-innovative milieu seems to be more realistic and more promising. Further on, the new more direct links between enterprises and research institutes question the current shape of technology transfer institutions. Finally the potential effects of the new trend to encourage the entrepreneurship of research staff on the science system are discussed.
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