The Requirement of Qualified Workers in Thuringia until 2015: Forecast and Policy Recommendations
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Christian Schmeißer, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2009
Abstract
We forecast the number of qualified workers required in the German federal state Thuringia until 2015 on the basis of the manpower requirement approach. Disaggregated by types of qualification, this method distinguishes between two sources of recruitment requirements: replacement demand for old workers and expansion demand to reflect structural changes of industry sectors and productivity growth. Both components are calculated from register data on employment covered by social security. Relative to current employment, recruitment requirements vary across occupations. A comparison of recruitment requirements for medium-skilled workers with the structure of vocational training reveals potential mismatch between demand and supply of medium-skilled labor in the near future if the composition of apprenticeship programs remains unchanged. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
Read article
Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009-2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
Read article
Co-existence of Unemployment and Skilled Labour Shortage? Evidence from Thuringia
Dirk Trocka, Marco Sunder
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2009
Abstract
In the light of favourable business conditions during the previous years, business organizations have repeatedly cautioned about a skilled labour shortage that could constrain future development of enterprises. While shortages may be typical of phases of economic expansion, the skilled labour shortage might turn into a permanent phenomenon if one takes into account the shrinking of the working-age population. The demographic transition occurs at an especially rapid pace in Eastern Germany. At the same time, this region still exhibits high rates of chronic unemployment, which renders the possibility of a skilled labour shortage questionable.
We focus on the federal state of Thuringia and investigate two questions. Firstly, we evaluate to what extent occupation-specific bottlenecks exist both in Germany and in Thuringia, using a set of criteria based on official labour market statistics. We find evidence of high utilization of labour supply in technical and metalworking professions in Germany. In the majority of these occupations, the same is true for Thuringia. Hence, a high level of unemployment and skilled labour shortage may coexist, at least in a transition phase. Secondly, we investigate whether companies in Thuringia already expect problems when searching for skilled personnel in the near future. For this purpose, the IWH has conducted a survey among approximately 1 000 companies. It turns out that 61% of the interviewed companies anticipate such problems, with statistically significant differences with respect to the companies’ characteristics. In addition, we discuss selected policies that companies plan to implement in the field of human resource management when anticipating problems.
Read article
Demographic Change and Labour Markets: Why are Older Employees less Mobile?
Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
Since older workers are less disposed to change jobs workforce ageing will affect labour mobility in Germany. On the basis of the IAB-Employment Sample (IABS) the contribution analyzes the effect of age on job and occupational mobility. The study focuses on the question whether older workers are less mobile due to the optimal matching quality of their current job which cannot be improved by job switches or whether other factors have to be considered for explaining the age related mobility decline.
Econometric results firstly confirm the significance of expected wage growth for mobility decision across all age groups. Secondly, older workers seem to benefit from wage increase due to a job change less frequently than younger workers. However, this factor explains only a part of the mobility lag. Even after controlling for the wage effect younger workers change jobs more often than older ones.
For this reason the opinion that ageing will impede the labour market adjustments cannot be disabled. If older workers only slightly react on wage signals and do not respond to attractive offers growing firms might face problems to recruit appropriate staff – a trend which could have negative consequences for technological and sectoral changes of the entire economy.
Read article
Does temporary employment influence the workrelated training of low-skilled employees?
Eva Reinowski, Jan Sauermann
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2008
Abstract
Fixed-term contracts are considerd as one of the most popular instruments of labour market flexibility. Although they provide new labour market options for employer and employees, it is argued that they may lead to decreasing investments in human capital. From the theoretical point of view it is not clear wheter a fixed-term contract is a drawback for the participation in work-related training. The paper deals with the influence of fixed-term contracts on work-related training especially for low-skilled workers. Based on the Micro Census data of 2004, we estimate a bivariate probit model for the probability of fixed-term employment and participating in work-related training. This model enables us to control for selection effects that may arise from unobservable factors. From the estimation results we can conclude that holding a fixed-term contract does not mean a systematical disadvantage for the training probability of low-skilled employees.
Read article
Does Qualification Drive Innovation? A Microeconometric Analysis Using Linked-employer-employee Data
Bianca Brandenburg, Jutta Günther, Lutz Schneider
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2007
Abstract
Degree-level science and engineering skills as well as management and leadership skills are often referred to as a source of innovative activities within companies. Broken down by sectoral innovation patterns, this article examines the role of formal education and actual occupation for product innovation performance in manufacturing firms within a probit model. It uses unique micro data for Germany (LIAB) that contain detailed information about innovative activities and the qualification of employees. We find significant differences of the human capital endowment between sectors differentiated according to the Pavitt classification. Sectors with a high share of highly skilled employees engage in product innovation above average (specialized suppliers and science based industries). According to our hitherto estimation results, within these sectors the share of highly skilled employees does not, however, substantially increase the probability to be an innovative firm.
Read article
Vielfältigkeit eines Hybridberufes: Mechatronikfacharbeiter nach der Ausbildung
Simone Scharfe, K. Tautenhahn
External Publications,
No. 8,
2006
Abstract
In the period from 2002 to 2004, 302 skilled workers successfully concluded their education as a mechatroniker, microtechnologist, chemical laboratory assistant, physics laboratory assistant or varnish laboratory assistant within the scope of the model project "compound education in new professions of high technology" which was initiated by the Saxonian State Ministry of Economy and Labor. The model project and the scientific monitoring were promoted from means of the European Social Fund and complementary state means of the Free State of Saxony.
Some months after the completion of their education, the graduates were questioned by the scientific monitoring about different aspects concerning the model project and its evaluation, points of interests have for example been:
§ the retrospective assessment of the education and the model project,
§ the estimation of their chances in the job market,
§ the professional whereabouts as well as
§ the evaluation of their knowledge in terms of its suitability for daily use.
In this article, the results of the last both points in the view of the mechatroniker, which are the biggest group in the model project with 180 graduates, are picked out as a central theme. Because the mechatronikers should combine the branches of the mechanics and the electronics in the second part of the result representation the actual operational areas of the former trainee are examined.
ich hätte evtl. einiges anders formuliert: (der Satzbau klingt sonst so eingedeutscht)
The article mainly refers to the last two points. Also, the view is limited to the results of the mechatroniker. Covering 180 graduates, it has been the largest group within the model project.
The intention of the new occupational image of the mechatroniker was a bridging of mechanics and electronics. Therefore, it is examined in the second part of this article, to which extend this bridging is reflected in the actual operational areas of the former trainees.
Read article
Recent Trends: Share of exclusively marginally employed strongly increased in several areas of occupation
Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2006
Abstract
Während die Zahl der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten in Deutschland von 27 482 584 im Juni 1999 auf 26 178 266 im Juni 2005 gesunken ist, stieg die Zahl der ausschließlich geringfügig Beschäftigten – das sind Personen, die Beschäftigungsverhältnisse mit einer Entlohnung bis zu 400 Euro haben – im gleichen Zeitraum von 2 873 100 auf 4 746 883 an. Auf 100 sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigte kommen nunmehr 18 ausschließlich geringfügig Beschäftigte, das ist eine Zunahme von acht Personen innerhalb von sechs Jahren.
Read article
Hartz IV: 1-Euro-Jobs setzen falsche Anreize
Herbert Buscher
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2004
Abstract
The paper analyzes the different incentives due to different possibilities of additional earnings to the receipt of unemployment benefits. Long term unemployed people may earn additional income due to a regular occupation in the first labor market or due to social work. In the latter case people receive a expense allowance which they are allowed to hold for the full amount. Contrary to this income earned in a regular job is partly reduced (by 85 % for the first 400 Euro, e.g.) which might make working in the social or common sector more attractive than working in the first labor market. Secondly, given the unemployment benefits and the additional amount of earnings it might be more attractive with respect to total income than the income earned in the low wage sector of the economy. This might imply a negative incentive for those who are working in a low wage sector.
Read article
Occupation-by-Sector Matrices
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Computer-Integrated Manufacturing,
1992
Abstract
Read article