Von der Intention zur Gründung - Gründerwettbewerbe in Deutschland
N. Waldmann, Michael Schwartz, Claus Michelsen
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
The number of aspiring entrepreneurs in high-tech industries that succeed in completing the transition from nascent entrepreneurship to new venture creation is too low in Germany. Responding to this unsatisfactory situation, since the mid 1990s, numerous start-up competitions (or business plan competitions) have been established to stimulate the transition from nascent to real entrepreneurship. Those competitions have too major objectives: Increasing start-up probabilities by mobilizing potential entrepreneurs while simultaneously increasing the probability of start-up success of the prospective start-ups. Despite their importance as (policy) measure to encourage entrepreneurship, a discussion of their effectiveness is missing so far. The present article tries to contribute to the understanding of start-up competitions by providing broad empirical evidence on the development, on the regional distribution and on the most important characteristics of existing start-up competitions in Germany. Further, the article presents and discusses most important empirical results regarding the effectiveness of those start-up competitions (and other important factors as well) to act as a driving force behind the transition from nascent entrepreneurship to new venture creation in high-technology industries. Finally, we derive conclusions for an agenda of main future research questions.
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Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment
Steven J. Davis, R. Jason Faberman, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, Javier Miranda
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
No. 2,
2010
Abstract
Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent by the mid 1990s. Using low frequency movements in industry-level data, we estimate that a 1 percentage point drop in the quarterly job destruction rate lowers the monthly unemployment inflow rate by 0.28 points. By our estimates, declines in job destruction intensity account for 28 (55) percent of the fall in unemployment inflows from 1982 (1990) to 2005. Slower job destruction accounts for similar fractions of long-term declines in the rate of unemployment.
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Characteristics of Business Cycles: Have they Changed?
Oliver Holtemöller, J. Rahn, M. H. Stierle
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 5,
2009
Abstract
The most recent economic downturn has shown that economic activity nowadays is still prone to large fluctuations. Despite a long tradition of research, the understanding of such fluctuations, namely business cycles, is still far from comprehensive. Moreover, in a developing world with new technologies, faster communication systems, a higher integration of world markets and increasingly better-skilled people the nature of business cycles changes continuously and new insights can be drawn from recent experience.
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Bank Credit Standards, Demand, Pro-cyclicality and the Business Cycle: A Comment
Á. Maddaloni, J. L. Peydró Alcalde, J. Suárez, Reint E. Gropp
Moneda y crédito,
No. 230,
2010
Abstract
We analyze the determinants fo standards and demand for loans to firms and house-holds over the last business cycle using the comprehensive and confidential Bank Lending Survery from the Euro area. There is significant variation of standards and demand over the cycle. Standards for business loans vary more during the business cycle than the lending standards for households, whereas credit demand from households varies more than demand from firms. Lending standards vary mainly due to charges in perception of borrower risk, bank balance sheet positions and competitive pressures. In particular, we find that higher GDP growth softens lending standards for all loans, i. e. lending standards are pro-cyclical. However, we also find pro-cyclicality in credit demand.
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CO2-Navigator – ein Softwaretool zur Unterstützung von Investitionsoptionen zur Emissionsreduktion und zum Management von Klimarisiken
Edeltraud Günther, G. Weber, M. Nowack, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Klimaschutz und Anpassung an die Klimafolgen: Strategien, Maßnahmen und Anwendungsbeispiele,
2009
Abstract
Global warming and increased climate policies are associated with risks for many companies, but also with opportunities.The chair of Business Administration, esp. Environmental Management at the TU Dresden and the Halle Institute for Economic Research studied the question of how companies can deal with these challenges funded by the BMBF project “Corporate Management under the Constraints of Climate Change Policy (CO2 Navigator)“.Specific concern of the project network was to provide companies assistance to develop a) potential emission reduction strategies and medium-term adjustments to changing environmental conditions, b) assess the economic impact and c) derive decisions for practical use on this basis.The core elements of the research, risk management and assessment of adaptation strategies with the real option approach and the CO2-Navigator software resulting from the project are described in this article.
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Yes to Investments by Public Authorities for the Future! But Business Cycle will no Longer be Saved by it!
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2009
Abstract
In order to mitigate the effects of the deep economic recession, the German federal government has adopted two economic stimulus packages to be applied in the period from 2009 to 2010. According to our estimations, these programs include investments amounting to 25.3 billion Euros mainly in infrastructure and education. We investigate the total effects of these investments on production and employment using a static input-output model. We find that the gross domestic product will increase by at most one percentage point, namely 0.4 points in 2009 and 0.7 points in 2010. This implies that approximately 400 000 jobs will be safeguarded. About one quarter of the effects will concern construction and business services respectively. For several reasons, our calculations constitute the upper bound to the expected effects. The increasing demand in construction could lead to significantly increasing prices. In light of the expected decline in production, the economic effects of the programs may appear to be low. Obviously, the strong decrease in external demand and its impact on the economy cannot be effectively combated by instruments of national economic policies.
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Business Cycle Forecast 2009: World Financial Crisis Triggers Deep Recession in Germany
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
At the beginning of 2009, the major industrialized economies are in recession. The financial turmoil has developed into a crisis of confidence to and solvency of the financial sector, raising financing costs and lowering the value of assets for firms and households. Monetary and fiscal policies have reacted strongly, but they will not succeed in ending the recession until the financial sectors in the US and in Western Europe have stabilized. This forecast is made under the assumption that stabilization will start in the second half of 2009 because the continued protection of important financial institutions by governments will restore confidence – albeit at a low level – and because at this time, the fall of US-house prices will start to fade off.
The German economy is hit particularly hard, because the financial crisis depresses worldwide investment demand and the sectors producing investment goods are at the heart of the German economy. The recession will not end before the second half of 2009, and capacity utilization will decrease throughout the year. We expect a tentative revival to begin in a recovery of exports. While private investment will shrink markedly, consumption of private households and the government as well as public investment will dampen the downturn. GDP will shrink by 1.9% in Germany and in East Germany by 1.5% because this region is less dependent on exports.
Economic policy has to help restoring confidence, and this can only be achieved if it behaves in a consistent and predictable way.
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The Great Risk Shift? Income Volatility in an International Perspective
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2465,
2008
Abstract
Weakening bargaining power of unions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This paper documents and explains changes in income volatility. Using a theoretical framework which builds distribution risk into a real business cycle model, hypotheses on the determinants of the relative volatility of capital and labor are derived. The model is tested using industry-level data. The data cover 11 industrialized countries, 22 manufacturing and services industries, and a maximum of 35 years. The paper has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor and capital incomes has declined, reflecting the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the idiosyncratic component of income volatility has hardly changed over time. Third, crosssectional heterogeneity in the evolution of relative income volatilities is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high- and low-skilled workers have become more volatile in relative terms. Fourth, income volatility is related to variables measuring the bargaining power of workers. Trade openness has no significant impact.
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Business Cycle Forecast: On the Edge?
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
During the summer of 2008, the world economy was further slowing. The financial crisis affects the real economy by tightened credit standards in the US and in the European Union, and housing markets are now in a severe crisis not only in the US, but also in some countries in Western Europe. Finally, consumption of households is affected by stagnating real disposable incomes due to the energy price hike. The slowing world economy, however, has caused the oil price to fall since July, and most emerging markets economies are, up to now, quite resilient.
In Germany, sentiment has deteriorated significantly. Production appears to be about stagnating in the summer. During winter, the devaluation of the euro and a beginning pick up of demand since July will help producers of tradable goods in Germany. Domestic demand will be supported by lower energy prices and healthily growing wage incomes. All in all, gross domestic product (gdp) (adjusted for the number of working days) will increase by 1,8% this year and by 0,8% in 2009.
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