22.09.2016 • 39/2016
Strong Financial Literacy could Lead to More Self-employment
The probability that a person is self-employed also depends on how much financial literacy they have. A new study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association recently confirmed this correlation.
Walter Hyll
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02.09.2016 • 35/2016
The German Economy: Still Robust Despite Sliding Sentiment
The prospects for the German economy are still quite favorable. While sentiment indicators suggest that growth will slow at the end of the year, domestic demand will continue on an upward trend. The German GDP should increase by 1.9% in 2016. For 2017 we expect a lower growth rate of 1.2%“Weaker export volumes and higher growth of imports are the relevant factors for the slowdown”, says Prof Oliver Holtemöller, IWH Vice president. Unemployment will rise a bit as more refugees enter the labor market. Consumer price inflation remains moderate. The general government balance (cyclically ad¬justed as well as unadjusted) will be in surplus in both 2016 and 2017.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Does Administrative Status Matter for Urban Growth? Evidence from Present and Former County Capitals in East Germany
Bastian Heider, Albrecht Kauffmann, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Abstract
Public sector activities are often neglected in the economic approaches used to analyze the driving forces behind urban growth. The institutional status of a regional capital is a crucial aspect of public sector activities. This paper reports on a quasi-natural experiment on county towns in East Germany. Since 1990, cities in East Germany have demonstrated remarkable differences in population development. During this same period, many towns have lost their status as a county seat due to several administrative reforms. Using a difference-in-difference approach, the annual population development of former county capitals is compared to population change in towns that have successfully held on to their capital status throughout the observed period. The estimations show that maintaining county capital status has a statistically significant positive effect on annual changes in population. This effect is furthermore increasing over time after the implementation of the respective reforms.
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09.06.2016 • 22/2016
The German Economy Benefits from Strong Domestic Demand
In 2016, the moderate upswing of the German economy continues. Incomes grow due to the steady expansion in employment, and the fall in energy prices has propped up the purchasing power of private households. As a consequence, private consumption expands healthily; investment in housing is additionally stimulated by very low interest rates. Exports, however, expand only moderately, as the world economy is rather weak. All in all, the IWH forecasts the German GDP to expand by 1.8% in this year and by 1.6% in 2017.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Declining Business Dynamism: What We Know and the Way Forward
Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, Javier Miranda
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings,
No. 5,
2016
Abstract
A growing body of evidence indicates that the U.S. economy has become less dynamic in recent years. This trend is evident in declining rates of gross job and worker flows as well as declining rates of entrepreneurship and young firm activity, and the trend is pervasive across industries, regions, and firm size classes. We describe the evidence on these changes in the U.S. economy by reviewing existing research. We then describe new empirical facts about the relationship between establishment-level productivity and employment growth, framing our results in terms of canonical models of firm dynamics and suggesting empirically testable potential explanations.
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Regional Capital Flows and Economic Regimes: Evidence from China
Liuchun Deng, Boqun Wang
Economics Letters,
April
2016
Abstract
Using provincial data from China, this paper examines the pattern of capital flows in relation to the transition of economic regimes. We show that fast-growing provinces experienced less capital inflows before the large-scale market reform, contrary to the prediction of the neoclassical growth theory. As China transitioned from the central-planning economy to the market economy, the negative correlation between productivity growth and capital inflows became much less pronounced. From a regional perspective, this finding suggests domestic institutional factors play an important role in shaping the pattern of capital flows.
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Vierteljährliche Konjunkturberichterstattung für das Land Sachsen-Anhalt - Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Lage im 4. Quartal 2015 -
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß, Brigitte Loose
IWH Online,
No. 1,
2016
Abstract
Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Sachsen-Anhalt hat nach den indikatorgestützten Schätzungen des IWH im vierten Quartal des Jahres 2015 um 0,3% zugenommen, nachdem sie im Quartal zuvor zurückgegangen war. Damit dürfte die Expansion im vierten Quartal 2015 in etwa mit der in Deutschland in Gleichklang gewesen sein.
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16.03.2016 • 10/2016
German Economy Stays Stable Despite Shaky Environment
The German economy had a good start into the year 2016, in spite of heightened risks for the world economy and political turmoil in Europe. Employment and incomes are expanding, as is internal de-mand, additionally supported by government spending related to the high number of newly arrived refugees. However, sliding sentiment indicates a temporary slow down of the economy during this spring. We assume that the present political tensions inside the European Union can be mitigated in the coming months and that confidence will rise again. All in all, gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise by 1.5% in 2016.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Vierteljährliche Konjunkturberichterstattung für das Land Sachsen-Anhalt - Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Lage im 3. Quartal 2015 -
Brigitte Loose, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß
IWH Online,
No. 12,
2015
Abstract
Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Sachsen-Anhalt ist nach den indikatorgestützten
Schätzungen des IWH im dritten Quartal des Jahres 2015 um 0,4% zurückgegangen, nachdem sie im Quartal zuvor kräftig zugelegt hatte. Damit blieb die Expansion im laufenden Quartal deutlich hinter der in Deutschland zurück.
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