07.05.2020 • 7/2020
Launch of IWH Bankruptcy Update: Number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany constant despite Corona crisis
Despite the Corona outbreak, the number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany so far remains at 2019 levels. This is according to the new IWH Bankruptcy Update provided by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) on a monthly basis and much earlier than official statistics.
Steffen Müller
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Coal Phase-out in Germany – Implications and Policies for Affected Regions
Pao-Yu Oei, Hauke Hermann, Philipp Herpich, Oliver Holtemöller, Benjamin Lünenbürger, Christoph Schult
Energy,
April
2020
Abstract
The present study examines the consequences of the planned coal phase-out in Germany according to various phase-out pathways that differ in the ordering of power plant closures. Soft-linking an energy system model with an input-output model and a regional macroeconomic model simulates the socio-economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regions, as well as in the rest of Germany. The combination of two economic models offers the advantage of considering the phase-out from different perspectives and thus assessing the robustness of the results. The model results show that the lignite coal regions will exhibit losses in output, income and population, but a faster phase-out would lead to a quicker recovery. Migration to other areas in Germany and demographic changes will partially compensate for increasing unemployment, but support from federal policy is also necessary to support structural change in these regions.
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12.02.2020 • 2/2020
Causes of populism: IWH begins international research project
Is the increasing strength of populist parties due to economic causes? The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is set to play a leading role in scrutinising this controversial question with immediate effect, together with researchers from England, Scotland and the Czech Republic. The Volkswagen Foundation is funding this interdisciplinary project to the tune of almost one million euro for four years.
Steffen Müller
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Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach
João Carlos Claudio, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller
Empirical Economics,
No. 1,
2020
Abstract
Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.
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Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach
João Carlos Claudio, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract
Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.
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Sinkendes Potenzialwachstum in Deutschland, beschleunigter Braunkohleausstieg und Klimapaket: Finanzpolitische Konsequenzen für die Jahre bis 2024
Andrej Drygalla, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Christoph Schult, Matthias Wieschemeyer, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 4,
2019
Abstract
Nach der Mittelfristprojektion des IWH wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland in den Jahren bis 2024 preisbereinigt um durchschnittlich 1% wachsen; das nominale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird um durchschnittlich 2¾% zunehmen. Die Durchschnittswerte verschleiern die Tatsache, dass das Wachstum gegen Ende des Projektionszeitraums aufgrund der dann rückläufigen Erwerbsbevölkerung spürbar zurückgehen wird. Dies wird sich auch bei den Staatseinnahmen niederschlagen. Allerdings wird die Bevölkerung nicht regional gleichverteilt zurückgehen. Strukturschwache Regionen dürften stärker betroffen sein. Die regionalen Effekte auf die Staatseinnahmen werden zwar durch Umverteilungsmechanismen abgefedert, aber nicht völlig ausgeglichen. Regionen mit schrumpfender Erwerbsbevölkerung müssen sich auf einen sinkenden finanziellen Spielraum einstellen. Der beschleunigte Braunkohleausstieg wird diesen Prozess verstärken, das Klimapaket der Bundesregierung hat hingegen vergleichsweise geringe Auswirkungen auf die öffentlichen Finanzen.
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12.12.2019 • 24/2019
Global economy slowly gains momentum – but Germany still stuck in a downturn
In 2020, the global economy is likely to benefit from the recent thaw in trade disputes. Germany’s manufacturing sector, however, will recover only slowly. “In 2020, the German economy will probably grow at a rate of 1.1%, and adjusted for the unusually high number of working days the growth rate will only be 0.7%”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). With an estimated growth rate of 1.3%, production in East Germany will outpace total German production growth.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Industrial Cores in East Germany and Its Interaction with the Surrounding Territories—Findings from Four Case Studies
Gerhard Heimpold
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
No. 2,
2019
Abstract
Subject to this article is how four cases of so called industrial cores have developed in East Germany since 1990. Industrial cores represent former state-owned firms which were regarded as economically viable by the Treuhand. But there was no chance to privatize them in the short run. The case studies show the development prior to and after privatization. A special focus is laid on the interaction between the respective firm and its spatial environment. To sum up: All four firms are still existent. They provide competitive goods and services. Nonetheless, the interaction with the surrounding region differs from case to case. There were spin-offs in all cases. Organizational units previously belonging to the former state owned firms were split up, and became independent firms. In addition, new firms were established. Partly the establishment of new firms was supported directly by—de facto—structural policy measures implemented by the core firms. Partly the new establishments were simply cases of co-location resulting from a prospering regional environment. Taking the four cases, urban areas obviously formed a particularly fertile economic environment.
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