Energy Efficiency of the Housing Stock: Are potential savings overrated?
Claus Michelsen, S. Müller-Michelsen
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2010
Abstract
A core element of the European Climate Protection Policy is the reduction of Energy usage in private households. Legal instruments focus particularly on private multifamily housing. When refurbishing or building a new home, the German regulation for energy saving in buildings and building systems, Energieeinsparverordnung (EnEV 2009), thereby formulates relatively strict standards on energy conservation. But these standards mainly address the technical potentials of energy efficiency gains instead of considering market conditions and different types of housing, especially their age. Theory suggests that legal settings therefore retain owners to refurbish their homes, when returns on investment are negative, especially in regions where market conditions do not allow for higher rents or the costs of refurbishment are too high.
The article presents evidence for these theoretical considerations: based on a large scale sample provided by the company ista Germany, it can be shown, that energy usage differs by the age of dwellings and by the standard of refurbishment. Data suggests that the assumed potentials of energy conservation, which are mainly motivated by technical considerations, are too high. The differences may be a result of different cost functions of refurbishment. Further evidence for this finding is provided by architectural considerations.
As a result, the article suggests to legally distinguishing between different types of housing and to consider market conditions, when providing public funding for energy efficiency. It is suggested to implement a two multidimensional strategy, considering climate protection, urban development issues and the rationality of real estate investors.
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“Geschäftsmodell Deutschland“ und außenwirtschaftliche Ungleichgewichte in der EU
Renate Ohr, Götz Zeddies
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
2010
Abstract
During the last decades, current account imbalances increased all over the world. In this context, countries with current account surpluses, in the European Union especially Germany, are increasingly blamed for their modest wage policies, which are seen as the main reason for global imbalances. On the basis of a panel data model, the present paper indentifies the determinants of current account imbalances of EU Member States. As the results show, price competitiveness is, although significant, only one out of many explanatory variables. Instead, current account imbalances are substantially caused by divergent propensities to save. This does not only relate to public, but also to private savings. Accordingly, demands addressed to Germany and other countries for higher wage agreements alone would be unrewarding. Instead, domestic demand in surplus countries should be increased by other means. On the other hand, in countries with current account deficits, existing savings potentials should be adequately exploited.
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Langfristige Wirkungen des Konjunkturpakets II am Beispiel der sächsischen Kommunen
Peter Haug
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
2010
Abstract
The article discusses primarily the potential long-term (supply-side) effects of the public investments subsidized by the German „Economic Stimulus Package II“. Considering the allocative aspects, especially the productivity and financing effects of publicly provided capital as well as the factor price effects of investment grants (municipalities are „lured to the concrete“) have to be taken into account. The theoretical problems are supported empirically by the subsidy practice in Saxony and its focus on local consumer goods (sports and leisure facilities) and on not directly economy-related educational facilities (kindergartens, primary schools). From a distributive point of view no interdependence between the financial strength (or weakness) of the municipalities and the amount of their ESPII-grants received could be confirmed empirically. Finally, with respect to the economic short-term stabilization effects of the program a significant increase of the municipal investments – although with a time lag - was found for Saxony.
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The Emergence of Wage Coordination in the Central Western European Metal Sector and its Relationship to European Economic Policy
Vera Glassner, Toralf Pusch
Abstract
In the European Monetary Union the transnational coordination of collective wage bargaining has acquired increased importance on the trade union agenda. The metal sector has been at the forefront of these developments. This paper addresses the issue of crossborder coordination of wage setting in the metal sector in the central western European region, that is, in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, where coordination practices have become firmly established in comparison to other sectors. When testing the interaction of wage developments in the metal sector of these three countries, relevant macroeconomic (inflation and labour productivity) and sector-related variables (employment, export-dependence) are considered with reference to the wage policy guidelines of the European Commission and the European Metalworkers’ Federation. Empirical evidence can be found for a wage coordination effect in the form of increasing compliance with the wage policy guidelines of the European Metalworkers’ Federation. The evidence for compliance with the stability-oriented wage guideline of the European Commission is weaker.
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Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
Rolf Scheufele
North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
2010
Abstract
This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and its hybrid variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest resides in the average frequency of price re-optimization by firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method based on the Anderson–Rubin statistic. We find that the German Phillips curve is purely forward-looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every 2–3 quarters. These estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view. But the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity, where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanation as to why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way in which orthogonality conditions are formulated. Further, model mis-specifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. This analysis points out the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.
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Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
Abstract
While the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In the present paper we use a multivariate state space framework, that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach, to analyze the short run impact of money on prices. We contribute to the literature in three ways: First, we distinguish changes in velocity of money that are due to institutional developments and thus do not induce inflationary pressure, and changes that reflect transitory movements in money demand. This is achieved with a newly developed multivariate unobserved components decomposition. Second, we analyze whether the high volatility of the transmission from monetary pressure to inflation follows some structure, i.e., if the parameter regime can assumed to be constant. Finally, we use our model to illustrate the consequences of the monetary policy of the Fed that has been employed to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis, simulating different exit strategy scenarios.
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Macroeconomic Shocks and Banks' Foreign Assets
Claudia M. Buch, K. Carstensen, A. Schertler
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
Recent developments in international financial markets have highlighted the role of banks in the transmission of shocks across borders. We employ dynamic panel methods for a sample of OECD countries to analyze whether banks' foreign assets react to macroeconomic shocks at home and abroad. We find that banks reduce their foreign assets in response to a relative increase in domestic interest rates, and they increase their foreign assets when the growth rate of world energy prices rises. The responses are characterized by a temporal overshooting and a dynamic adjustment process that extends over several quarters.
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The ADR Shadow Exchange Rate as an Early Warning Indicator for Currency Crises
Stefan Eichler, Alexander Karmann, Dominik Maltritz
Journal of Banking and Finance,
No. 11,
2009
Abstract
We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners’ currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.
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Shadow Budgets, Fiscal Illusion and Municipal Spending: The Case of Germany
Peter Haug
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
The paper investigates the existence of fiscal illusion in German municipalities with special focus on the revenues from local public enterprises. These shadow budgets tend to increase the misperception of municipal tax prices and seem to have been neglected in the literature. Therefore, an aggregated expenditure function has been estimated for all German independent cities applying an “integrated budget” approach, which means
that revenues and expenditures of the core budget and the local public enterprises are combined to one single municipal budget. The estimation results suggest that a higher relative share of local public enterprise revenues might increase total per capita spending as well as spending for non-obligatory municipal goods and services. Empirical evidence for other sources of fiscal illusion is mixed but some indications for debt illusion, renter illusion or the flypaper effect could be found.
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