Government Interventions in Banking Crises: Assessing Alternative Schemes in a Banking Model of Debt Overhang
Diemo Dietrich, Achim Hauck
Abstract
We evaluate policy measures to stop the fall in loan supply following a banking crisis. We apply a dynamic framework in which a debt overhang induces banks to curtail lending or to choose a fragile capital structure. Government assistance conditional on new banking activities, like on new lending or on debt and equity issues, allows banks to influence the scale of the assistance and to externalize risks, implying overinvestment or excessive risk taking or both. Assistance granted without reference to new activities, like establishing a bad bank, does not generate adverse incentives but may have higher fiscal costs.
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Stochastic Income Statement Planning and Emissions Trading
Henry Dannenberg, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Abstract
Since the introduction of the European CO2 emissions trading system (EU ETS), the
development of CO2 allowance prices is a new risk factor for enterprises taking part in this system. In this paper, we analyze how risk emerging from emissions trading can be considered in the stochastic profit and loss planning of corporations. Therefore we explore which planned figures are affected by emissions trading. Moreover, we show a way to model these positions in a planned profit and loss account accounting for uncertainties and dependencies. Consequently, this model provides a basis for risk assessment and investment decisions in the uncertain environment of CO2 emissions trading.
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CO2-Navigator – ein Softwaretool zur Unterstützung von Investitionsoptionen zur Emissionsreduktion und zum Management von Klimarisiken
Edeltraud Günther, G. Weber, M. Nowack, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Klimaschutz und Anpassung an die Klimafolgen: Strategien, Maßnahmen und Anwendungsbeispiele,
2009
Abstract
Global warming and increased climate policies are associated with risks for many companies, but also with opportunities.The chair of Business Administration, esp. Environmental Management at the TU Dresden and the Halle Institute for Economic Research studied the question of how companies can deal with these challenges funded by the BMBF project “Corporate Management under the Constraints of Climate Change Policy (CO2 Navigator)“.Specific concern of the project network was to provide companies assistance to develop a) potential emission reduction strategies and medium-term adjustments to changing environmental conditions, b) assess the economic impact and c) derive decisions for practical use on this basis.The core elements of the research, risk management and assessment of adaptation strategies with the real option approach and the CO2-Navigator software resulting from the project are described in this article.
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Estimation Uncertainty in Credit Risk Assessment: Comparison of Credit Risk Using Bootstrapping and an Asymptotic Approach
Henry Dannenberg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 3,
2009
Abstract
For credit risk assessment, probability of default and correlation have to be estimated simultaneously. However, these estimates are uncertain. To assess this uncertainty the literature has discussed the use of asymptotic confidence regions. This kind of region though needs a long credit history for exact assessment. An alternative method to generate a confidence region for a short credit history is bootstrapping. Hence, it could be more appropriate to assess estimation uncertainty with bootstrapping than with asymptotic methods if only a short credit history is available. Based on a simulation study, it is analyzed how many periods should be available for assessing credit risk – taking account of estimation uncertainty – if bootstrapping and a Wald confidence region shall achieve similar results. This article shows that more than 100 cycles have to be available for similar results.
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Vergleich der Kreditrisikobewertung bei Berücksichtigung von Schätzunsicherheit und Korrelation – Welche Risikokomponente Sollten Unternehmen bei der Bewertung von Forderungsportfoliorisiken wann berücksichtigen?
Henry Dannenberg
Die Unternehmung Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice,
2008
Abstract
The use of probability of default estimates to assess the risks of a credit portfolio should not ignore estimation uncertainty. The latter can be quantified by confidence intervals. But assumptions about dependencies of these intervals are inconsistent with assumptions of conventional credit portfolio models. Based on simulation studies this paper shows that a model which includes estimation uncertainty but ignores default correlation might estimate the real credit risk more correctly than a model that implicates default correlation but ignore estimation uncertainty. The latter is a trait of conventional credit portfolio models. In this paper quantifying of estimation uncertainty based on the idea of confidence intervals and the underlying probability distributions of these intervals.
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Die volkswirtschaftliche Bedeutung von Private Equity
Ulrich Blum
Private Equity. Beurteilungs- und Bewertungsverfahren von Kapitalbeteiligungsgesellschaften,
2008
Abstract
Private equity is a very specific institutional way of providing private capital to enterprises. The contribution inquires why it increased its economic importance and public visibility over the last years. The role of private capital within the framework of the innovation theory, transaction cost theory and the risk theory is assessed. Private equity is a specific way of organizing the procurement with private capital for enterprises in risky markets in order to efficiently reducing transaction costs. More and above, it is important for credible market-entry strategies. As most markets are incomplete and because of tax regulations which cannot be considered to be efficient under present conditions, the economic role of private equity has increased. The increase economic role, but also importance in the firm, necessitates a steering of enterprises along value-oriented objectives. As the “hype” has decreased in summer 2007, the article ends with an assessment of future prospects.
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Schätzunsicherheit oder Korrelation, Welche Risikokomponente sollten Unternehmen bei der Bewertung von Kreditportfoliorisiken wann berücksichtigen?
Henry Dannenberg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 5,
2007
Abstract
The use of probability of default estimates to assess the risks of a credit portfolio should not ignore estimation uncertainty. The latter can be quantified by confidence intervals. But assumptions about dependencies of these intervals are inconsistent with assumptions of conventional credit portfolio models. Based on simulation studies this paper shows, that a model which include estimation uncertainty but ignore default correlation might estimate the real credit risk more correctly than a model that implicates default correlation but ignore estimation uncertainty. The latter is a trait of conventional credit portfolio models. In this paper quantifying of estimation uncertainty based on the idea of confidence intervals and the underlying probability distributions of these intervals.
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The IWH signals approach: the present potential for a financial crisis in selected Central and East European countries and Turkey
Hubert Gabrisch, Simone Lösel
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2006
Abstract
The steep increase of oil prices, general threats rooting from Iran’s nuclear program, and doubts about the future policy of important central banks recently caused more uncertainties of investors on international financial markets. This explains the higher volatility and the fall of indices on stock markets including those of some Central and East European countries. International investors could respond with adjustments of their portfolio and trigger off a financial crisis. On this background, the article studies the potential for a financial crises in the region mentioned. The analytical tool is the IWH signals approach. The study concludes that the risk of the outbreak of a financial crisis within the next 18 months is rather unrealistic in most countries. A stable economic policy, high real growth rates, a financial system already robust compared to earlier times of transition, and appropriate exchange rate arrangements protect the countries against speculative attacks and portfolio adjustments. When the composite indicator shows deterioration like in the Baltic countries, it turned out to be negligible. For the Slovak Republic and Slovenia, the composite indicator even improved. A closer look to individual indicators reveals still some problems in the banking sectors of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary, however, without out major impact on the composite indicator.
This general assessment does not apply to Romania, and, in particular, to Turkey. The composite indicator signals a significant increase of the risk potential for the next 18 months in both countries. There is a considerable need for sound policy action.
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The Loss Distribution of the Entrepreneurial Bad Debt Risk – a Simulation-based Model
Henry Dannenberg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2006
Abstract
The risk of bad debt losses evolves for companies which grant payment targets. Possible losses have to be covered by these companies equity and liquidity reserves. The question of how to quantify the level of risk of bad debt losses will be discussed in this paper. Input values of this risk are the probability of default, exposure at default and loss given default. It is shown how companies can derive probability functions to describe uncertainty and variability for each input value. Based on these probability functions a simulation model is developed to quantify the risk of bad debt losses. Based on an empirical study probability functions for probability of default and loss given default are presented.
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