Economic Failure and the Role of Plant Age and Size
Steffen Müller, Jens Stegmaier
Small Business Economics,
No. 3,
2015
Abstract
This paper introduces a large-scale administrative panel data set on corporate bankruptcy in Germany that allows for an econometric analysis of involuntary exits where previous studies mixed voluntary and involuntary exits. Approximately 83 % of all bankruptcies occur in plants with not more than 10 employees, and 61 % of all bankrupt plants are not older than 5 years. The descriptive statistics and regression analysis indicate substantial negative age dependence with respect to bankruptcy risk but confirm negative size dependence for mature plants only. Our results corroborate hypotheses stressing increasing capabilities and positional advantage, both predicting negative age dependence with respect to bankruptcy risk due to productivity improvements. The results are not consistent with the theories explaining age dependence via imprinting or structural inertia.
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Was wissen wir über Betriebsschließungen? Erkenntnisse für West- und Ostdeutschland
Daniel Fackler, Claus Schnabel
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 2,
2015
Abstract
This paper reports the results of several investigations into the determinants of company shutdowns using administrative data for Germany. We show that between 1975 and 2008, the average shutdown rate has risen considerably in western Germany. For most of the time, shutdown rates in eastern Germany were higher, but they have converged to the western level recently. The shutdown risk falls with company size and is substantially higher for young companies. Shutdown rates initially decline as companies age, reaching a minimum at ages 15 to 18, and then rise again. Companies begin to shrink several years before closure, and the remaining workforce becomes on average more skilled, more female and older in companies about to close compared to surviving ones.
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Can R&D Subsidies Counteract the Economic Crisis? – Macroeconomic Effects in Germany
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Jutta Günther, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig, Nicole Nulsch
Research Policy,
No. 3,
2015
Abstract
During the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, governments in Europe stabilized their economies by means of fiscal policy. After decades of absence, deficit spending was used to counteract the heavy decline in demand. In Germany, public spending went partially into R&D subsidies in favor of small and medium sized enterprises. Applying the standard open input–output model, the paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of R&D subsidies on employment and production in the business cycle. Findings in the form of backward multipliers suggest that R&D subsidies have stimulated a substantial leverage effect. Almost two thirds of the costs of R&D projects are covered by the enterprises themselves. Overall, a subsidized R&D program results in a production, value added and employment effect that amounts to at least twice the initial financing. Overall, the R&D program counteracts the decline of GDP by 0.5% in the year 2009. In the year 2010 the effects are already procyclical since the German economy recovered quickly. Compared to the strongly discussed alternative uses of subsidies for private consumption, R&D spending is more effective.
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Municipal Size, Administrative Structure and Election Turnout: Consequences of Municipal Reform for the Legitimisation of Political Decision-making Processes
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Claus Michelsen
Gebiets- und Verwaltungsstrukturen im Umbruch: Beiträge zur Reformdiskussion aus Erfahrungen in Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen,
No. 360,
2015
Abstract
In the political debate voices are repeatedly heard calling for municipal territories to be enlarged and to dispense with internal administrative sub-divisions of the municipal entities, hence realising the model of the so-called unitary municipality and not that of the federally conceived municipalities. The “costs“ in terms of the economic disadvantages of this centralised model are usually only mentioned in passing, not least due to the problems of quantifying these costs. This paper attempts such a quantification for one aspect of the economic disadvantages of larger and more centralised municipal entities, namely their negative effects on election turnouts. The results of the empirical investigations show that the theoretical suppositions are confirmed, demonstrating that (1.) the choice of the organisational form of municipal administrative entity affects turnout, and (2.) the unitary municipality form leads to a significantly lower election turnout than that found in federally organised types of municipality.
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The Efficiency of Municipal Service Provision: A Study on the Example of Saxony-Anhalt
Peter Haug, Annette Illy, Claus Michelsen
Gebiets- und Verwaltungsstrukturen im Umbruch: Beiträge zur Reformdiskussion aus Erfahrungen in Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen,
No. 360,
2015
Abstract
Against the background of the latest reforms of municipal territories in Sachsen-Anhalt, this paper aims to empirically investigate for this federal state whether the former, very small scale structure of municipal administration could generally be termed “inefficient“. It is of particular importance to determine whether decentralised forms of administration, such as the administrative associations that have been dissolved, are characterised by an efficiency disadvantage in comparison to more strongly centralised standard-municipalities, and whether the former municipalities were too small in terms of their “operational size“.
No justification for the creation of large municipal entities can be derived from the analysis conducted. Owing to the settlement structure and limited possible economies of scale, it is thus not only to be feared that territorially large municipalities in rural areas will fail to significantly improve cost efficiency in the provision of municipal services. Rather, it may also be the case that efficiency will actually decline, as such “giant municipalities“ are often attended by disincentive effects for citizens as well as for policy and administration (e.g. little civil society involvement arising from a lack of identification with the municipality, lack of control of political decision-makers, low levels of preference-justice in administrative action).
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Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters
Andrej Drygalla
FIW Working Paper, Nr. 139,
No. 139,
2015
Abstract
This paper analyzes changes in the monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland following the policy shift from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting around the turn of the millennium. Applying a Markovswitching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, switches in the policy parameters and the volatilities of shocks hitting the economies are estimated and quantified. Results indicate the presence of regimes of weak and strong responses of the central banks to exchange rate movements as well as periods of high and low volatility. Whereas all three economies switched to a less volatile regime over time, findings on changes in the policy parameters reveal a lower reaction to exchange rate movements in the Czech Republic and Poland, but an increased attention to it in Hungary. Simulations for the Czech Republic and Poland also suggest their respective central banks, rather than a sound macroeconomic environment, being accountable for reducing volatility in variables like inflation and output. In Hungary, their favorable developments can be attributed to a larger extent to the reduction in the size of external disturbances.
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Spatial Development in View of the Re-structuring of Public Administrations – What are the Implications of the Individual Contributions?
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, M. Gather
Gebiets- und Verwaltungsstrukturen im Umbruch: Beiträge zur Reformdiskussion aus Erfahrungen in Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen,
No. 360,
2015
Abstract
It must be clear that any kind of appraisal drawn from the results of the individual papers can only be an interim one. Many of the issues raised in the pertinent field of investigation could only be touched upon without being sufficiently debated. In other cases the results of the papers show that further and more thorough investigations are urgently required. It may be stated that public administration structures are basically in a state of constant change, and must repeatedly be adapted to changing economic and social framework conditions. In terms of legal boundaries to territorial restructuring, it should be noted that the size of a municipality may not be permitted to obstruct either the political participation of citizens or the possibility of the municipal decision-makers being sufficiently well-informed.
The overall picture furthermore suggests that reforms in the public sector sphere that are initiated by state actors (i.e. top down) are always extremely complicated affairs.
The objective of the regional working group of the Academy of Spatial Research and Planning (ARL) for the states Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt and Thüringen was to highlight some of the most significant aspects of the process of municipal re-structuring and its effects on spatial development, considering these in the three states against the background of current discussions and reform measures.
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Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity
Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ron S. Jarmin, Josh Lerner, Javier Miranda
American Economic Review,
No. 12,
2014
Abstract
Private equity critics claim that leveraged buyouts bring huge job losses and few gains in operating performance. To evaluate these claims, we construct and analyze a new dataset that covers US buyouts from 1980 to 2005. We track 3,200 target firms and their 150,000 establishments before and after acquisition, comparing to controls defined by industry, size, age, and prior growth. Buyouts lead to modest net job losses but large increases in gross job creation and destruction. Buyouts also bring TFP gains at target firms, mainly through accelerated exit of less productive establishments and greater entry of highly productive ones.
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Taxes, Banks and Financial Stability
Reint E. Gropp
Taxation and Regulation of the Financial Sector,
2014
Abstract
In response to the financial crisis of 2008/2009, numerous new taxes on financial institutions have been discussed or implemented around the world. This paper discusses the connection between the incidence of the taxes, their incentive effects, and policy makers’ objectives. Combining basic insights from banking theory with standard models of tax incidence shows that the incidence of such taxes will disproportionately fall on small and medium size enterprises. The arguments presented suggest it is unlikely that the taxes will have a beneficial impact on financial stability or raise significant amounts of revenue without increasing the cost of capital to bank dependent firms significantly.
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