The Loss Distribution of the Entrepreneurial Bad Debt Risk – a Simulation-based Model
Henry Dannenberg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2006
Abstract
The risk of bad debt losses evolves for companies which grant payment targets. Possible losses have to be covered by these companies equity and liquidity reserves. The question of how to quantify the level of risk of bad debt losses will be discussed in this paper. Input values of this risk are the probability of default, exposure at default and loss given default. It is shown how companies can derive probability functions to describe uncertainty and variability for each input value. Based on these probability functions a simulation model is developed to quantify the risk of bad debt losses. Based on an empirical study probability functions for probability of default and loss given default are presented.
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On the presence of important growth factors in German regions along the border with Poland
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2003
Abstract
The German regions bordering on Poland are regarded as economically weak. Prior to the EU enlargement there was great uncertainty about the economic prospects of these regions. Against this background this contribution tries to shed some light on this debate about the future of the border regions. The empirical research shows two different findings: Firstly, the border space is not a homogeneous one. Rather, certain sub-regions show strengths – for instance the university towns in terms of the availability of human capital and of service industries. Other districts are remarkable for their great share of employees in the manufacturing sector as well as for their exceptionally high industrial investment. Secondly, the border regions show an endowment with essential growth determinants which is often below East Germany as a whole. But this is the case in many other East German regions too. The East-West disparities turn out to be much more serious than the intra-East German disparities.
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Innovative Milieux: Advanced Posts of Interpenetration between the Economic System and the Science System
Peter Franz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 71,
1998
Abstract
A growing number of governments, political parties, and enterprises set the theme „innovation“ on their agenda and join in the global race to more competitive national economies. In this race the concept of the „innovative milieu“ serves as an important point of orientation and as a political target that, on the first glance, seems to be transferable in concrete political measures. A basic feature of innovative milieux is the quick and easy transfer of knowledge to products in demand. This speed-up in the diffusion of knowledge is not only interesting with respect to the economic advantages but also with respect to science. It is the basic thesis of this paper that innovative milieux represent special cases where the economic system and the science system interpenetrate in an extreme way. Empirical findings show that the actors of innovative milieux have a strong cultural proximity to basic attitudes and behavior within the science system. This relates to the institutionalization of trial and error, the reinforcement of exploratory behavior, the flow of information, and to a special mixture of cooperation and competition. An essential feature of innovative milieux derives from the network relations of its actors. These relations have to be balanced a) to the need to create trust and reduce uncertainty, and b) to the need to stay permeable enough for linkages with new actors from outside. With regard to time innovative milieux have to be conceived from an evolutionary perspective. This involves several steps: Development of prerequisites, consolidation, attraction of labor and enterprises from other regions. From the evolutionary perspective, too, possible factors of preventing or accelerating the „entropic death“ (Camagni 1991) of innovative milieux can be discussed. The exceptional character of innovative milieux has consequences for innovation-oriented political strategies. The self-enforcing dynamics of innovative milieux create a tendency to more economic inequality between regions (core-periphery differences). This is contradictory to political strategies in which innovation-oriented policy is applied to reach an offset between prospering and impoverished regions. In many cases a strategy starting from the assumption of an enduring non-innovative milieu seems to be more realistic and more promising. Further on, the new more direct links between enterprises and research institutes question the current shape of technology transfer institutions. Finally the potential effects of the new trend to encourage the entrepreneurship of research staff on the science system are discussed.
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