Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

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German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth

The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). 

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Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties

Globalisation has led to an increase in votes for the political fringes in Europe. A study by the Halle Institute is the first to show the long-term consequences of increased Chinese imports: Far-right and populist parties have benefited from the China shock.

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Risky ties between banks and supervisors

Many top managers at European banks move seamlessly to supervisory authorities. An IWH study has revealed the extent of these links for the first time. They can pave the way for lax regulation and jeopardise financial stability. Three things politicians should improve.

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Blathering managers harm their company

If a senior executive refuses to give information to professional investors, the company's stock market value drops afterwards. This is shown in an IWH study after evaluating 1.2 million answers from telephone conferences.

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New database on Europe's real estate markets

Exclusively for non-commercial scientific purposes, the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) provides a comprehensive overview of residential property offers for sale and rent in 18 European countries.

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Solidarity with Israel

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany stands in solidarity with Israel.

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Solidarity with Ukraine

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany draws consequences for academia.

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Press Releases

26.09.2024 • 27/2024

Services stabilise the East German economy – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2024 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Statistical Offices

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

In 2024, the East German economy is expected to grow by 0.2%, while it will decline by 0.1% in Germany as a whole. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is forecasting an East German growth rate of 0.7% in 2025, and a rate of 1.2% in 2026. According to the IWH forecast, the unemployment rate in eastern Germany is likely to be 7.5% in 2024 as well as 2025 and 7.2% in 2026.

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26.09.2024 • 26/2024

Joint Economic Forecast 2/2024: German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). Compared to the spring forecast, this represents a down-ward revision of 0.2 (2024) and 0.6 (2025) percentage points. “In addition to the economic downturn, the German economy is also being weighed down by structural change,” says Dr Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of Forecasting and Economic Policy at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). “Decarbonisation, digitalisation, and demographic change – alongside stronger competition with companies from China – have triggered structural adjustment processes that are dampening the long-term growth prospects of the German economy.”

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10.09.2024 • 25/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten im August leicht gesunken

Abstract

Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im August zwar leicht zurückgegangen. Dennoch liegt der Wert deutlich höher als vor der Corona-Pandemie. Besonders viele Insolvenzen gab es in Baden-Württemberg, Bayern und Sachsen.

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05.09.2024 • 24/2024

Moderate economic growth in the world – German economy continues to stagnate

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

Production in Germany has been stagnating for two years and is roughly the same level as shortly before the outbreak of the pandemic. Investment of firms is particularly weak. An important reason for fewer investments is the sluggish export business. Private households are also holding back on consumption, mainly due to concerns about the longer-term economic outlook. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product in Germany is likely to stagnate in 2024 and to increase by 1.0% in 2025 as capacity utilisation normalises. In June, the IWH forecast had still assumed a growth of 0.3% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025. In East Germany, gross domestic product will increase by 0.3% this year and by 0.9% in 2025.

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Veranstaltung
15
Oct 2024

14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Political Partisanship and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy

Francesco D'Acunto  Georgetown University
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