Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

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German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth

The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). 

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Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties

Globalisation has led to an increase in votes for the political fringes in Europe. A study by the Halle Institute is the first to show the long-term consequences of increased Chinese imports: Far-right and populist parties have benefited from the China shock.

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Risky ties between banks and supervisors

Many top managers at European banks move seamlessly to supervisory authorities. An IWH study has revealed the extent of these links for the first time. They can pave the way for lax regulation and jeopardise financial stability. Three things politicians should improve.

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Blathering managers harm their company

If a senior executive refuses to give information to professional investors, the company's stock market value drops afterwards. This is shown in an IWH study after evaluating 1.2 million answers from telephone conferences.

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New database on Europe's real estate markets

Exclusively for non-commercial scientific purposes, the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) provides a comprehensive overview of residential property offers for sale and rent in 18 European countries.

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Solidarity with Israel

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany stands in solidarity with Israel.

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Solidarity with Ukraine

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany draws consequences for academia.

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We provide independent research on economic topics that aim to enrich society with facts and evidence-based insights that facilitate better economic decisions. We focus on growth and productivity. We promote young talents and work in flat hierarchies.

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Press Releases

07.11.2024 • 29/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten bricht im Oktober den nächsten Rekord

Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Abstract

Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im Oktober sprunghaft auf 1 530 angestiegen. Das ist der höchste Oktoberwert seit 20 Jahren.

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10.10.2024 • 28/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten im September gestiegen, drittes Quartal 2024 erreicht damit Rekordwerte

Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Abstract

Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im September angestiegen. Im dritten Quartal 2024 lag die Zahl der Insolvenzen damit so hoch wie in keinem anderen Quartal seit Mitte 2010.

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26.09.2024 • 27/2024

Services stabilise the East German economy – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2024 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Statistical Offices

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

In 2024, the East German economy is expected to grow by 0.2%, while it will decline by 0.1% in Germany as a whole. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is forecasting an East German growth rate of 0.7% in 2025, and a rate of 1.2% in 2026. According to the IWH forecast, the unemployment rate in eastern Germany is likely to be 7.5% in 2024 as well as 2025 and 7.2% in 2026.

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26.09.2024 • 26/2024

Joint Economic Forecast 2/2024: German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). Compared to the spring forecast, this represents a down-ward revision of 0.2 (2024) and 0.6 (2025) percentage points. “In addition to the economic downturn, the German economy is also being weighed down by structural change,” says Dr Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of Forecasting and Economic Policy at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). “Decarbonisation, digitalisation, and demographic change – alongside stronger competition with companies from China – have triggered structural adjustment processes that are dampening the long-term growth prospects of the German economy.”

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Das deutsche Finanzsystem hat den Zinsanstieg gut verarbeitet – Welche Risiken sollten wir dennoch im Blick behalten?

Manuel Buchholz, Moritz Stieglitz (Deutsche Bundesbank)
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