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Dr Axel Lindner

Dr Axel Lindner
Current Position

since 1/10

Deputy Head of the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 1/13

Head of the Research Group Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasts

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

Research Interests
  • monetary economics
  • European macroeconomics

Axel Lindner joined in 2001 and became Deputy Head of the Department of Macroeconomics in 2010. His research focuses on the European business cycle and on information economics applied to macroeconomic forecasting. As ombudsperson, Axel Lindner is responsible for ensuring good scientific practice at the institute.

Axel Lindner earned a diploma and doctoral degree from LMU Munich. He was visiting professor at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada and visiting scholar at Queen's University in Kingston, Canada. Prior to joining IWH, he was teaching at Goethe University Frankfurt.

Your contact

Dr Axel Lindner
Dr Axel Lindner
Mitglied - Department Macroeconomics
Send Message +49 345 7753-703

Publications

Recent Publications

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IWH-Flash-Indikator III. und IV. Quartal 2023

Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Flash Indicator, No. 3, 2023

Abstract

Im zweiten Quartal 2023 stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung in Deutschland. Die Konsumausgaben der privaten Haushalte konnten sich nach den deutlichen Rückgängen in den beiden Vorquartalen stabilisieren. Dazu dürfte wohl auch die sich in den vergangenen Monaten abschwächende Inflation beigetragen haben. Die Sorgen der Unternehmen stiegen hingegen weiter deutlich: So setzt das Gemisch aus hohen Energiepreisen, geopolitischen und regulatorischen Risiken, gestiegenen Zinsen und Fachkräftemangel vor allem das Verarbeitende Gewerbe kräftig unter Druck. Die damit verbundenen Anpassungen lassen eine konjunkturelle Besserung erst Ende des Jahres 2023 möglich erscheinen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) dürfte daher laut IWH-Flash-Indikator im dritten Quartal 2023 um 0,3% sinken. Im vierten Quartal beträgt der Zuwachs dann gemäß Indikator 0,5% (vgl. Abbildung 1).

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AIECE General Report, Part 2, Spring 2023

Andrej Drygalla Axel Lindner Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Studies, No. 4, 2023

Abstract

The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is a member of AIECE (Association d'Instituts Europeens de Conjoncture Economique/Association of European Conjuncture Institutes), an association of independent European institutes involved in surveying economic conditions and developments, and in short-term macroeconomic forecasting. The main objective of the Association is to stimulate the exchanges between its members with a view to improve their insight into international economic developments. This ranges from the exchange of statistical or institutional information to discussions on economic policy Guidelines to common research activities. The AIECE organises between its members an exchange of view, of information and of literature on international economic developments, in particular in Europe. The Association provides the framework for joint activities of its members in areas of common interest. Its structure allows its members to develop common views on the future cyclical development. In order to meet these objectives the Association has half-yearly plenary meetings, centred around a general report on the European conjuncture prepared in turn by one of the members in cooperation with the other member institutes, but also with discussions of the working group reports and of special surveys prepared by member institutes. In Spring 2023, the report was written by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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AIECE General Report, Part 1, Spring 2023

Andrej Drygalla Axel Lindner Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Studies, No. 3, 2023

Abstract

The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is a member of AIECE (Association d'Instituts Europeens de Conjoncture Economique/Association of European Conjuncture Institutes), an association of independent European institutes involved in surveying economic conditions and developments, and in short-term macroeconomic forecasting. The main objective of the Association is to stimulate the exchanges between its members with a view to improve their insight into international economic developments. This ranges from the exchange of statistical or institutional information to discussions on economic policy Guidelines to common research activities. The AIECE organises between its members an exchange of view, of information and of literature on international economic developments, in particular in Europe. The Association provides the framework for joint activities of its members in areas of common interest. Its structure allows its members to develop common views on the future cyclical development. In order to meet these objectives the Association has half-yearly plenary meetings, centred around a general report on the European conjuncture prepared in turn by one of the members in cooperation with the other member institutes, but also with discussions of the working group reports and of special surveys prepared by member institutes. In Spring 2023, the report was written by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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Refereed Publications

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For How Long Do IMF Forecasts of World Economic Growth Stay Up-to-date?

Katja Heinisch Axel Lindner

in: Applied Economics Letters, No. 3, 2019

Abstract

This study analyses the performance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook output forecasts for the world and for both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current year and the next year, we examine the durability of IMF forecasts, looking at how much time has to pass so that IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time data set for GDP and for indicators, we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts as soon as the publication of the IMF’s Outlook is only a few months old. In particular, there is an obvious gain using leading indicators from January to March for the forecast of the current year.

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On the Risk of a Sovereign Debt Crisis in Italy

Oliver Holtemöller Tobias Knedlik Axel Lindner

in: Intereconomics, No. 6, 2018

Abstract

The intention for the Italian government to stimulate business activity via large increases in government spending is not in line with the stabilisation of the public debt ratio. Instead, if such policy were implemented, the risk of a sovereign debt crisis would be high. In this article, we analyse the capacity of the Italian economy to shoulder sovereign debt under different scenarios. We conclude that focusing on growth enhancing structural reforms, would allow for moderate increases in public expenditure.

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On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU

Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner Andreas Schmalzbauer Götz Zeddies

in: Intereconomics, No. 4, 2016

Abstract

The current situation regarding the migration of refugees can only be handled efficiently through closer international cooperation in the field of asylum policy. From an economic point of view, it would be reasonable to distribute incoming refugees among all EU countries according to a distribution key that reflects differences in the costs of integration in the individual countries. An efficient distribution would even out the marginal costs of integrating refugees. In order to reach a political agreement, the key for distributing refugees should be complemented by compensation payments that distribute the costs of integration among countries. The key for distributing refugees presented by the EU Commission takes account of appropriate factors in principle, but it is unclear in terms of detail. The compensation payments for countries that should take relatively high numbers of refugees for cost efficiency reasons should be financed by reallocating resources within the EU budget.

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Working Papers

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Economic Sentiment: Disentangling Private Information from Public Knowledge

Katja Heinisch Axel Lindner

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 15, 2021

Abstract

This paper addresses a general problem with the use of surveys as source of information about the state of an economy: Answers to surveys are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only additional information that is not already publicly known has the potential to improve a professional forecast. We propose a simple procedure to disentangle the private information of agents from knowledge that is already publicly known for surveys that ask for general as well as for private prospects. Our results reveal the potential of our proposed technique for the usage of European Commissions‘ consumer surveys for economic forecasting for Germany.

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Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators

Katja Drechsel Sebastian Giesen Axel Lindner

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 4, 2014

Abstract

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.

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Evaluating communication strategies for public agencies: transparency, opacity, and secrecy

Axel Lindner

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 8, 2008

Abstract

This paper analyses in a simple global games framework welfare effects stemming from different communication strategies of public agencies if strategies of agents are complementary to each other: communication can either be fully transparent, or the agency opaquely publishes only its overall assessment of the economy, or it keeps information completely secret. It is shown that private agents put more weight to their private information in the transparent case than in case of opacity. Thus, in many cases, the appropriate measure against overreliance on public information is giving more details to the public instead of denying access to public information.

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Keywords

Forecasts East Germany Growth Financial Markets
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