Martina Kämpfe

Martina Kämpfe
Current Position

since 1/92

Economist in the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

Research Interests

  • forecasting German foreign trade within economic forecasts of the German economy
  • forecasting economic developments in Central and Eastern European countries
  • analysing adjustment processes in Central and Eastern European countries to the EU policies

Martina Kämpfe joined the institute in 1992 and the Department of Macroeconomics in 2005. She investigates the foreign trade of the German economy for the forecasting and observes the economic situation and transition processes of Central and Eastern European countries.

Martina Kämpfe studied Eastern European languages and literature at the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin as well as economics at Higher School of Economics in Berlin. Prior to joining IWH, she worked as a translator and documentalist.

Your contact

Martina Kämpfe
Martina Kämpfe
Mitglied - Department Macroeconomics
Send Message +49 345 7753-838

Publications

Recent Publications

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Short-term Economic Effects of a "Brexit" on the German Economy

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch Geraldine Dany-Knedlik Andrej Drygalla Stefan Gebauer Oliver Holtemöller Martina Kämpfe Axel Lindner Claus Michelsen Malte Rieth Thore Schlaak

in: IWH Online, No. 3, 2019

Abstract

Many questions about Brexit remain open. It is still possible that the UK and the European Union will not be able to agree on a withdrawal agreement. In this case a so-called hard Brexit (No-Deal Brexit) would happen. We have examined the short-term effects of a hard Brexit for the German economy. In a first step, effects via the trading channel are estimated based on an input-output analysis of international and sectoral links. The result is a loss of 0.3% relative to gross domestic product. This magnitude also results from the international Halle Economic Projection Model, which takes into account macroeconomic repercussions. A hard Brexit would, in addition to the trade barriers, mean significant uncertainty for firms and households. On the demand side, this has a negative impact on investment activity and private consumption. Taken alone, these effects amount to 0.1% of gross domestic product. Overall, German gross domestic product could be dampened by several tenths of a percentage point in the one to two years following a hard Brexit. The automotive industry would probably suffer most. However, recommendations for discretionary economic policy measures aimed at dampening short-term macroeconomic effects or at individual economic sectors cannot be derived from this. The automatic stabilizers are sufficient given the expected magnitude of the effects.

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The Appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries

Martina Kämpfe Tobias Knedlik

in: Empirica, forthcoming

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Aktuelle Trends: Der Rückgang der Exporte nach Russland betrifft alle Bundesländer und ist nur zum Teil durch die Sanktionen der EU gegenüber Russland zu erklären

Oliver Holtemöller Martina Kämpfe

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 2, 2019

Abstract

In den vergangenen 20 Jahren waren die deutschen Exporte nach Russland in Relation zur gesamten Wertschöpfung zweimal rückläufig: zunächst im Jahr 2009 und dann wieder seit etwa dem Jahr 2012, also bevor die Europäische Union 2014 erstmals Handelssanktionen gegenüber Russland verhängte. Betroffen sind alle Bundesländer, der Rückgang dauert meist bis in die heutige Zeit an. Die Sanktionen dürften nur einen Teil des Rückgangs erklären. Vielmehr schwächte sich die Nachfrage nach Investitions- und Konsumgütern aus Russland mit dem Ölpreisverfall und der damit verbundenen Abwertung des Rubels Ende 2014 deutlich ab. Dies betraf nicht nur Deutschland, sondern beispielsweise auch China, das an Sanktionen gegenüber Russland nicht beteiligt ist. Erst 2016, als der Ölpreis wieder stieg, setzte eine teilweise Erholung der russischen Importe ein.

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Refereed Publications

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The Appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries

Martina Kämpfe Tobias Knedlik

in: Empirica, forthcoming

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The New EU Countries and Euro Adoption

Hubert Gabrisch Martina Kämpfe

in: Intereconomics, No. 3, 2013

Abstract

In the new member states of the EU which have not yet adopted the euro, previous adoption strategies have come under scrutiny. The spillovers and contagion from the global financial crisis revealed a new threat to the countries’ real convergence goal, namely considerable vulnerability to the transmission of financial instability to the real economy. This paper demonstrates the existence of extreme risks for real convergence and argues in favour of a new adoption strategy which does not announce a target date for the currency changeover and which allows for more flexible and countercyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies.

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Working Papers

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The Appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries

Martina Kämpfe Tobias Knedlik

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 16, 2017

Abstract

The experience of Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) during the global financial crisis and in the resulting European debt crises has been largely different from that of other European countries. This paper looks at the specifics of the CEEC in recent history and focuses in particular on the appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure for this group of countries. In doing so, the macroeconomic situation in the CEEC is highlighted and macroeconomic problems faced by these countries are extracted. The findings are compared to the results of the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure of the European Commission. It is shown that while the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure correctly identifies some of the problems, it understates or overstates other problems. This is due to the specific construction of the broadened surveillance procedure, which largely disregarded the specifics of catching-up economies.

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