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  2. Wirtschaft im Wandel, 6/2010
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Aktuelle Trends: IWH-Konjunkturbarometer Ostdeutschland

Das kräftige Aufbäumen der Konjunktur im letzten Quartal des Krisenjahres 2009 war von kurzer Dauer. Erst im Frühjahr 2010 hat die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft wieder Fahrt aufgenommen. In den ersten Monaten dieses Jahres stagnierte die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Ostdeutschland. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist nach Berechnung des IWH sogar mit −0,1% leicht gesunken. Ausschlaggebend waren die witterungsbedingten Ausfälle in der Bauwirtschaft, die Umsatzrückgänge des Handels infolge der sinkenden Verkäufe von Kraftfahrzeugen und die andauernde Konsolidierung im Personalbereich des öffentlichen Dienstes.

23. June 2010

Authors Udo Ludwig Franziska Exß

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Topics

current trend economy

Also in this issue

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Editorial

Ulrich Blum

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 6, 2010

Abstract

Gerät man in eine Zwickmühle, so hilft ein Befreiungsschlag. Zwänge sind durch innovatives und damit vor allem auch überraschendes Handeln, das nicht vorhergesehen und damit in der Wirkung abgeschwächt werden kann, zu überwinden. Schuldenlast und die Steuerbelastung bewirken derartige Zwänge, weshalb beide zurückgeführt werden müssen. Das gelingt durch Sparen und Konsolidieren oder auch durch dynamisches Wachstum. Beides steht in einem scheinbaren Widerspruch. Da Schulden aber unbillige personale und generationenspezifische Verteilungsungerechtigkeiten erzeugen und „Schuldenblasen“ in einer Spekulationsblase mit verheerenden Wirkungen für die Volkswirtschaft platzen können, müssen sie zurückgeführt werden. Eine effiziente Besteuerung kann helfen: Die Orientierung an der ökonomischen Leistungsfähigkeit impliziert auch, dass der Finanzsektor an den Kosten seiner Rettung beteiligt wird. Die Maßnahmen dürfen das Wachstum nicht abwürgen, plakativ: statt einer keynesianischen Hölle ein ricardianisches Paradies!

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Poverty in EU Countries

Herbert S. Buscher Ingmar Kumpmann Li Huan

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 6, 2010

Abstract

The contribution provides an overview of several poverty measures in European countries. These measures are recommended by the so-called Laeken criteria and include, among others, the level of poverty income, the Gini coefficient as a measure of inequality of the income distribution as well as the 90/10- and the 80/20-ratio of the income distribution to shed light on the relation of the income shares in the extreme tails of the distribution. Compared over the years 2000 and 2008, the results indicate an increase in poverty in Europe over time, with Germany being located in the middle of the selected countries. Relative poverty is most severe in the new EU member states such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Latvia.

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IWH-Industrieumfrage im Mai 2010: Stimmungsaufhellung hält an – Vorkrisenstand in Sichtweite

Cornelia Lang

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 6, 2010

Abstract

Die Geschäfte in der ostdeutschen Industrie florieren zurzeit. Die Ergebnisse der IWH-Industrieumfrage vom Mai unter knapp 300 Unternehmen zeigen, dass sich die konjunkturelle Erholung auf breiter Front gefestigt hat. Der Saldo der Geschäftslage legte seit März um 24 Punkte zu. Einen ähnlich großen Sprung gab es das letzte Mal im Spätsommer 2005. Auch der Saldo der Geschäftsaussichten.

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The Attractiveness of East Germany as Investment Location for Multinational Enterprises (MNEs)

Andrea Gauselmann Björn Jindra

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 6, 2010

Abstract

The article analyses the general motives of MNEs for investment in East Germany as well as the quality of selected locational factors in East Germany from multinational affiliates’ point of view. In contrast to existing studies for East Germany the article dedicates particular attention to the role of MNEs’ heterogeneity. The research draws from the third survey of the IWH FDI-Micro database in 2009, which offers a representative sample of multinational affiliates of the East German economy. The results show a fundamental shift in the relative importance of investment motives during the transition process of East Germany. Since the mid 1990s East Germany attracts increasingly investors that target economies of scope of local technological advantage rather than low-cost advantages of local production factors as the case in the early transition period. It can be demonstrated that the investment motives depends on the country of origin, the type and timing of market entry as well as the sector of the multinational affiliate. Amongst the given locational factors affiliates value the quality of the socio-cultural context highest. This group of soft factors is followed by locational aspects related the potential for technological cooperation, the availability of labour, and finally the extent of fiscal and financial incentives. There exist significant differences in the judgment about quality of different locational aspects depending on the country of origin and the underlying investment motive. Finally the article identifies possible policy measures in the area of skilled labour, technology and investment policy in order to sustain the attractiveness of East Germany as investment location in the future.

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Russia: Overcoming the Effects of Economic Crisis Takes Time

Martina Kämpfe

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 6, 2010

Abstract

The last year's decline of Gross Domestic Product in Russia was harder than in most big economies of the world. The financial crisis has revealed specific circumstances of growth in Russia: The situation deteriorated not only by the downfall of crude oil prices, but especially by the Russian banking sector not being able to satisfy financing demand of the private sector enterprises. So foreign liabilities of enterprises had increased and the dependence of the enterprises on the international financial markets had strengthened. In that way impacts of the global financial crisis affected Russia harder. Although external conditions for the Russian economy improved in the last months due to the rise of world oil prices and global demand for commodities, domestic demand still suffers from small revenues and bad financing conditions for enterprises. Because of its structural weakness it will take Russia longer than other transformation countries to overcome the crisis. Economic growth in the near future will expand much smaller than on last years’ average.

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Urban Development by Protecting Historic Buildings? An Analysis of Incentives and Regulations in Heritage Conservation

Peter Franz

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 6, 2010

Abstract

Regulations in heritage conservation play an important role in the redevelopment processes of East German cities. Numerous cities dispose of built cultural heritage still lending the cityscapes its character. As a reaction to the neglect of this cultural heritage during the GDR regime the East German Länder have enacted relatively restrictive heritage conservation laws. In addition to this the federal program “Städtebaulicher Denkmalschutz” was started in 1991 especially for the East German cities. In many cities activities for and investment in historic buildings have led to attractive urban centers. On the other side indicators become visible that an exaggerated heritage protection policy can turn out to be an obstacle for urban development. This paper takes an economic perspective on the topic of built heritage protection. In addition to this it contains a systematic overview over the policy arena, involving national and sub-national levels, actors and regulations. The financing of built heritage protection and recognizable intended and not intended effects of its measures are further topics of the paper. The results show that in East Germany a higher proportion of buildings is listed as in West Germany. The same is true when the public expenditures per head for heritage protection are compared. The analysis suffers from difficulties in assessing an optimal state of built heritage protection; a fact that signals further need in specific research.

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