Trade Growth Driven by a Cyclical Upswing of the World Economy

The surge in world trade since autumn 2016 is mainly caused by a worldwide cyclical upswing. In particular, stronger investment activity has a strong impact on international trade since the import content of investment goods is generally high. However, important structural causes for a slow down in trade still apply, and hence, its trend growth rate will not reach the level it has reached in the two decades before 2009.

18. November 2017

Authors Klaus-Jürgen Gern Axel Lindner Martin Micheli

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