Investment, Financial Markets, New Economy Dynamics and Growth in Transition Countries
Albrecht Kauffmann, P. J. J. Welfens
Economic Opening Up and Growth in Russia: Finance, Trade, Market Institutions, and Energy,
2004
Abstract
The transition to a market economy in the former CMEA area is more than a decade old and one can clearly distinguish a group of relatively fast growing countries — including Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia — and a majority of slowly growing economies, including Russia and the Ukraine. Initial problems of transition were natural in the sense that systemic transition to a market economy has effectively destroyed part of the existing capital stock that was no longer profitable under the new relative prices imported from world markets; and there was a transitory inflationary push as low state-administered prices were replaced by higher market equilibrium prices. Indeed, systemic transformation in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have brought serious transitory inflation problems and a massive transition recession; negative growth rates have continued over many years in some countries, including Russia and the Ukraine, where output growth was negative throughout the 1990s (except for Russia, which recorded slight growth in 1997). For political and economic reasons the economic performance of Russia is of particular relevance for the success of the overall transition process. If Russia would face stagnation and instability, this would undermine political and economic stability in the whole of Europe and prospects for integrating Russia into the world economy.
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The State of the World Economy and the German Economy in Fall of 2003 - Report of the six economic research institutes
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 14,
2003
Abstract
Growth of total world output has accelerated since last spring. The factors that had dampened growth during the early months of 2003 have lapsed, economic policy continues to be stimulating and the assessment of the prospects has become more favourable. The recovery is led once again by the United States. Developments in Japan are surprisingly good and the phase of weakness in Southeast Asia has been overcome. Whereas output in the EU accession countries has continued to grow strongly, the euro area has remained mired in stagnation....
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Current economic situation: A silver lining on the horizon
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2003
Abstract
The Federal Statistical Office has recently released the figures for second quarter GDP and its components. At the same time, the data for the past four years has been revised. This made it necessary to update the existing IWH-forecasts for 2003 and 2004. Stimulated by an improving world economy GDP will not decline this year but merely stagnate. In 2004 the external stimulus will further increase and accounting for the additional working days economic activity will rise by 1.8%. The turnaround at the labour market will not take place before the second half of 2004. Fiscal policy is currently aiming to balance the budget, but so far the government tried to achieve this goal by increasing levies and taxes. In order to maintain the growth potential, a sustainable consolidation, though, should work by means of cutting expenditure. Overall the deficit will be 4.1% and 3.9% of nominal GDP in this and next year, respectively.
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A Study of the Competitiveness of Regions based on a Cluster Analysis: The Example of East Germany
Franz Kronthaler
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 179,
2003
Abstract
This paper examines whether some East German regions have already achieved the same economic capability as the regions in West Germany, so that they are on a competitive basis with the West German regions and are able to reach the same economic level in the long run. If this is not the case, it is important to know more about the reasons for the economic weakness of the East German regions twelve years after unification.
The study is based on a cluster analysis. Criteria for the cluster formation are several economic indicators, which provide information about the economic capability of regions. The choice of the indicators is based on a review of results of the theoretical and empirical literature on the new growth theory and new economic geography.
The results show that most of the East German regions have not yet reached the economic capability and competitiveness of their West German counterparts so that they - from the viewpoint of the new growth theory and the new economic geography - are not in the position to reach the same economic level. According to these theories economic disadvantages are most notably the consequences of less technical progress, a lack of entrepreneurship and fewer business concentration. Under these points it is especially noteworthy that young well educated people leave these East German regions so that human capital might will turn into a bottle-neck in the near future. Only a few regions in East Germany - those with important agglomerations - are comparable to West German regions that are characterised by average capability and competitiveness, but not to those with above average economic capability and competitiveness. Even those more advanced East German regions still suffer from a slower technical progress.
There are important policy implications based on these results: regional policy in East Germany was not able to assist raising all regions to a sufficient level of competitiveness. It may be more effective to concentrate the regional policy efforts on a selection of important agglomerations. This has also strong implications for the EU regional policy assuming that the accession countries will have similar problems in catching up to the economic level of the EU as have the East German regions.
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Standardised Latin and Medieval Economic Growth
Ulrich Blum, Leonard Dudley
European Review of Economic History,
2003
Abstract
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Economic outlook for the Euro area 2003
Christian Dreger, Axel Lindner, Udo Ludwig, Klaus Weyerstraß
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2003
Abstract
This article reports the spring forecast of the economic development in the Eurozone, which was carried out within the European Forecasting Network. A modest rise in GDP growth from 1.2% in 2003 up to 2.1% in 2004 is expected. The current weakness in the growth experience is caused by structural factors to a large extent. In particular, labor markets are not flexible enough in most countries.
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On the presence of important growth factors in German regions along the border with Poland
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2003
Abstract
The German regions bordering on Poland are regarded as economically weak. Prior to the EU enlargement there was great uncertainty about the economic prospects of these regions. Against this background this contribution tries to shed some light on this debate about the future of the border regions. The empirical research shows two different findings: Firstly, the border space is not a homogeneous one. Rather, certain sub-regions show strengths – for instance the university towns in terms of the availability of human capital and of service industries. Other districts are remarkable for their great share of employees in the manufacturing sector as well as for their exceptionally high industrial investment. Secondly, the border regions show an endowment with essential growth determinants which is often below East Germany as a whole. But this is the case in many other East German regions too. The East-West disparities turn out to be much more serious than the intra-East German disparities.
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Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2003
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2003
Abstract
The global economy is in the midst of a phase of weakness. In the course of next year, at the earliest, GDP will in many regions expand a little faster than potential output. The German economy, even, remains in a phase of prolonged weakness. In the second half of this year an economic recovery is expected to start here. However, it will proceed only slowly. Aggregate capacity utilisation will continue to decline, and the state of the labour market will deteriorate further. Although the recovery will firm next year and domestic demand will rise slightly, economic growth in Germany will continue to lack dynamism.
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A Projection of Future Productivity Growth Potentials in the Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries Manufacturing Sector
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2003
Abstract
The assessment of future economic development in EU accession candidates critically depends on future productivity growth. A projection of future productivity growth in manufacturing industry can make use of experience from other countries developments in the course of their integration into the European Union.
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New industries in Eastern Germany - The state of the development of modern biotechnologies in Saxony-Anhalt
Walter Komar
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 16,
2002
Abstract
East German regions are able to increase their economics and innovation potential, if they orient themselves on technologies, which release important growth effects. Such growth branch is the modern biotechnology. In this paper the development and the location factors of the biotechnology industry in Saxonia-Anhalt are analyzed and compared with the bio region Munich, which rank to among the best bio regions in Germany. The analysis shows that the development of the modern biotechnology in East German regions can be favoured, if the location factors are improved.
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