Die Entwicklung der Corporate Governance deutscher Banken seit 1950
R. H. Schmidt, Felix Noth
Bankhistorisches Archiv,
No. 2,
2011
Abstract
The present paper gives an overview of the development of Corporate Governance of German banks since the 1950s. The focus will be on economic analysis. The most striking changes in Corporate Governance occurred with the ownership structure of commercial banks, in particular with the major joint-stock banks. In addition to that, the capital market has become a core element of Corporate Governance in all major German banks, which have replaced their prior concentration on the interests of a broadly defined circle of stakeholders by a one-sided concentration on shareholders’ interests. In contrast, with savings banks and cooperative cooperative banks, Corporate Governance has remained unchanged for the most part. Exceptions to this are the regional state banks: in their case, after they had turned away from traditional business models and in particular following the discontinuation of the guarantee obligation, the problems of their Corporate Governance, which were already discernible beforehand, became quite obvious. If you include the financial crisis, beginning in 2007, in the analysis, it becomes evident that it was precisely a Corporate Governance unilaterally geared to shareholders’ interest and the efficiency of the capital market that materially contributed to the evolution and widening of the crisis.
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Möglichkeiten für Vollbeschäftigungspolitik im Rahmen des Europäischen Makroökonomischen Dialogs
Toralf Pusch, A. Heise
K. Busch (Hrsg.), Wirtschaftliche und Soziale Integration in der Europäischen Union,
2010
Abstract
A decade after its introduction the European Monetary Union is no more undisputed. While a successful record regarding price stability cannot be doubted, the EMU still suffers from high unemployment – not only related to the Financial Crisis. In this contribution we want to cast light on the question how this might be related to a dismal mix of wage policy and monetary policy. Taking a consideration of the European Macroeconomic Dialogue as a starting point, we develop a game theoretic model which can explain different macroeconomic alternatives. As a result we present a reputation equilibrium which would make full employment and price stability compatible and does not rest on overriding the actors’ independence.
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Polen: Solide Erholung wird durch fiskalische Risiken überschattet
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2010
Abstract
Expansion of economic activity in Poland in 2009 continued at a markedly lower level compared to previous years, nevertheless Poland was not as hardly affected by the global financial and economic crisis as other countries. The situation of public finances had worsen due to lower economic activity and given the shrinking labour demand unemployment had risen up, but still moderately. In 2010 the economic activity increased markedly, primarily because of the recovery of situation in external trade countries, but deterioration of general government deficit will continue. Without adopted consolidation strategy the fiscal challenges in the medium term will endanger stable economic growth.
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Currency Crisis Prediction Using ADR Market Data: An Options-based Approach
Stefan Eichler, Dominik Maltritz
International Journal of Forecasting,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
During capital control episodes, large price deviations between American Depositary Receipts (ADR) and their underlying stocks signal that a currency crisis is about to occur. We interpret this price spread as the price of a call option. Using option pricing theory we derive detailed information about both the probability of a currency crisis and the expected magnitude of devaluation. Analyzing daily ADR market data preceding the Venezuelan crisis (1996), our approach predicts crisis probabilities of almost 100% and forecasts the exchange rate after floating quite accurately. During the Argentine crisis (2002), the estimated exchange rates are similar to the actual ones.
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The global downturn and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness
Filippo di Mauro, Katrin Forster, Ana Lima
ECB Occasional Paper Series,
No. 119,
2010
Abstract
World trade contracted sharply in late 2008 and early 2009 following the deepening of the financial crisis in September 2008. This paper discusses the main mechanisms behind the global downturn in trade and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness. It finds that the euro area was hit particularly hard by the contraction in global demand.
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Allmähliche Erholung der Wirtschaft Sachsen-Anhalts nach dem Krisenschock
Udo Ludwig, Brigitte Loose, Hardy Gude
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2010
Abstract
Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Sachsen-Anhalt ist im Krisenjahr 2009 mit 4,7% fast so stark gesunken wie im Bundesdurchschnitt. Maßgeblich für den hohen
Produktionseinbruch war nicht ein Mangel an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der hiesigen Unternehmen, sondern ein weltweiter Nachfrageschock bei Industriegütern. Er betraf vor allem Hersteller aus der Metall- und Elektroindustrie sowie der Chemischen Industrie. Allerdings mussten in Sachsen-Anhalt auch die beiden weniger auf die Außenmärkte ausgerichteten umsatzstärksten Branchen, nämlich das Ernährungsgewerbe und die Mineralölverarbeitung, im Vergleich mit den anderen Neuen Bundesländern überdurchschnittliche Rückschläge hinnehmen. Hinzu kommt ein Basiseffekt im Baugewerbe: Die Wertschöpfung ließ hier nach einigen Jahren starker Zuwächse überdurchschnittlich nach. Zudem sind die unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungen, die im Allgemeinen konjunkturglättend wirken, in Sachsen-Anhalt unterrepräsentiert. Insgesamt konnten die Unternehmen aus Sachsen-Anhalt ihre im vergangenen Aufschwung erarbeitete Wettbewerbsposition im Wesentlichen behaupten. Zwar haben sie den Arbeitsinput nur zögerlich an die niedrigere Produktion angepasst, sodass die Produktivität kräftig gesunken und die Lohnstückkosten entsprechend stark gestiegen sind. Trotzdem blieb ihr preislicher Wettbewerbsvorteil mit 17% gegenüber dem Industriedurchschnitt der Neuen Länder groß. Angetrieben von der florierenden Auslandsnachfrage holt die Wirtschaft Sachsen-Anhalts die Produktionsrückstände seit Mitte 2009 wieder auf. Die Aufwärtsdynamik dürfte in diesem Jahr mit einer Wachstumsrate des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 1½% etwa der in den Neuen Ländern insgesamt entsprechen. Aufgrund der hiesigen Wirtschaftsstruktur, die weniger industriell geprägt und weniger exportorientiert ist, wird sie aber hinter der in Deutschland zurückbleiben. Das in der Krise verzehrte Eigenkapital könnte dabei die künftige Entwicklung belasten. Das ist das Ergebnis einer gemeinsamen Prognose des IWH mit dem Verband der Vereine Creditreform.
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Reform der Aufsichtsräte von Banken - Lösung des Problems?
Reint E. Gropp, M. Köhler
Zeitschrift für das gesamte Kreditwesen,
No. 14,
2010
Abstract
Nicht nur die Regulatoren, sondern auch die große Mehrheit der Bankpraktiker gibt den Aufsichts- und Verwaltungsräten der Institute eine Mitschuld an der Finanzkrise und befürwortet Strukturänderungen in den Kontrollgremien. Der als sinnvoll erachtete Maßnahmenkatalog reicht von einer Begrenzung der Mandate über eine erfolgsabhängige Entlohnung bis hin zu verstärkten Informationsrechten gegenüber dem Vorstand. Nach Ansicht der Autoren setzen diese Vorschläge ebenso wie die Initiativen der Aufseher an den richtigen Stellen an. In Bezug auf die Abhängigkeit des Aufsichtsrats von den Aktionären und seiner stärkeren Ausrichtung auf die Nachhaltigkeit der Geschäftsstrategie sehen sie aber noch Nachbesserungsbedarf.
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Liberalization and Rules on Regulation in the Field of Financial Services in Bilateral Trade and Regional Integration Agreements
Diemo Dietrich, J. Finke, C. Tietje
Beiträge zum Transnationalen Wirtschaftsrecht Nr. 97,
2010
Abstract
The recent international financial crisis has sparked a fierce debate about its causes and about how to prevent a recurrence. As liberalization and deregulation were widely considered being among the major culprits, de-liberalization and re-regulation seemed a natural response. However, an economic approach to this issue does not support such black-and-white solutions. Although liberalizing financial services sectors may threaten a developing country's financial stability in the short run, it also fosters long-run economic growth if sound legal and economic institutions are in place that can mitigate the adverse side-effects of liberalization. For achieving this objective, states need the policy space to implement such regulatory measures. Contrary to a wide-spread belief, states are not unduly hampered by bilateral or multilateral agreements. Instead, by providing a far-reaching exception concerning prudential regulation states can define their own regulatory approach. The challange for developing countries thus is to install regulatory capacities.
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The Role of Rating Agencies in Financial Crises: Event Studies from the Asian Flu
Makram El-Shagi
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
2010
Abstract
Based on case studies from countries that have been hit hardest by the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the present paper shows that the accusation that sovereign ratings led to a severe acceleration of the crisis is unconvincing and that the empirical method often used to support accusations against rating agencies is inappropriate for the problem under analysis. Rather, it must be emphasised that ratings were downgraded in most countries very shortly before the end of the crisis. In some countries, the ratings were even further downgraded after the end of the crisis as countries started to recover. This is not in line with the thesis that the crisis was accelerated by rating agencies.
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Russia: Overcoming the Effects of Economic Crisis Takes Time
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2010
Abstract
The last year's decline of Gross Domestic Product in Russia was harder than in most big economies of the world. The financial crisis has revealed specific circumstances of growth in Russia: The situation deteriorated not only by the downfall of crude oil prices, but especially by the Russian banking sector not being able to satisfy financing demand of the private sector enterprises. So foreign liabilities of enterprises had increased and the dependence of the enterprises on the international financial markets had strengthened. In that way impacts of the global financial crisis affected Russia harder. Although external conditions for the Russian economy improved in the last months due to the rise of world oil prices and global demand for commodities, domestic demand still suffers from small revenues and bad financing conditions for enterprises. Because of its structural weakness it will take Russia longer than other transformation countries to overcome the crisis. Economic growth in the near future will expand much smaller than on last years’ average.
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