Technological Activities in CEE Countries: A Patent Analysis for the Period 1980-2009
Iciar Dominguez Lacasa, Alexander Giebler
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2014
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze the technological activities of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies and to compare them with the technological activities of other world regions. Using data from the EPO World Wide Statistical Database for the period 1980-2009 the analysis is based on counts of priority patent applications over time. In terms of priority patent applications, CEE reduced its technological activities drastically in absolute and per capita terms after 1990. The level of priority patent applications in this world region maintained more recently a stable level below the performance of EU15, South EU and the former USSR. In what concerns technological specialization, the results suggest a division of labor in technological activities among world regions where Europe, Latin America and the former USSR are mainly specializing in sectors losing technological dynamism in the global patent activities (Chemicals and/or Mechanical Engineering) while North America, the Middle East (especially Israel) and Asia Pacific are increasingly specializing in Electrical Engineering, a sector with strong technological opportunities.
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Towards Deeper Financial Integration in Europe: What the Banking Union Can Contribute
Claudia M. Buch, T. Körner, Benjamin Weigert
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2013
Abstract
The agreement to establish a Single Supervisory Mechanism in Europe is a major step towards a Banking Union, consisting of centralized powers for the supervision of banks, the restructuring and resolution of distressed banks, and a common deposit insurance system. In this paper, we argue that the Banking Union is a necessary complement to the common currency and the Internal Market for capital. However, due care needs to be taken that steps towards a Banking Union are taken in the right sequence and that liability and control remain at the same level throughout. The following elements are important. First, establishing a Single Supervisory Mechanism under the roof of the ECB and within the framework of the current EU treaties does not ensure a sufficient degree of independence of supervision and monetary policy. Second, a European institution for the restructuring and resolution of banks should be established and equipped with sufficient powers. Third, a fiscal backstop for bank restructuring is needed. The ESM can play a role but additional fiscal burden sharing agreements are needed. Direct recapitalization of banks through the ESM should not be possible until legacy assets on banks’ balance sheets have been cleaned up. Fourth, introducing European-wide deposit insurance in the current situation would entail the mutualisation of legacy assets, thus contributing to moral hazard.
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Towards Deeper Financial Integration in Europe: What the Banking Union Can Contribute
Claudia M. Buch, T. Körner, Benjamin Weigert
German Council of Economic Experts Working Paper 02/2013,
No. 2,
2013
Abstract
The agreement to establish a Single Supervisory Mechanism in Europe is a major step towards a Banking Union, consisting of centralized powers for the supervision of banks, the restructuring and resolution of distressed banks, and a common deposit insurance system. In this paper, we argue that the Banking Union is a necessary complement to the common currency and the Internal Market for capital. However, due care needs to be taken that steps towards a Banking Union are taken in the right sequence and that liability and control remain at the same level throughout. The following elements are important. First, establishing a Single Supervisory Mechanism under the roof of the ECB and within the framework of the current EU treaties does not ensure a sufficient degree of independence of supervision and monetary policy. Second, a European institution for the restructuring and resolution of banks should be established and equipped with sufficient powers. Third, a fiscal backstop for bank restructuring is needed. The ESM can play a role but additional fiscal burden sharing agreements are needed. Direct recapitalization of banks through the ESM should not be possible until legacy assets on banks’ balance sheets have been cleaned up. Fourth, introducing European-wide deposit insurance in the current situation would entail the mutualisation of legacy assets, thus contributing to moral hazard.
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Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen, A. Jung
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 5,
2012
Abstract
In the tradition of Romer and Romer (2000), this paper compares staff forecasts of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) for inflation and output with corresponding private forecasts. Standard tests show that the Fed and less so the ECB have a considerable information advantage about inflation and output. Using novel tests for conditional predictive ability and forecast stability for the US, we identify the driving forces of the narrowing of the information advantage of Greenbook forecasts coinciding with the Great Moderation.
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Central and Eastern European Countries in the Global Financial Crisis: A Typical Twin Crisis?
Diemo Dietrich, Tobias Knedlik, Axel Lindner
Post-Communist Economies,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
This paper shows that during the Great Recession, banking and currency crises occurred simultaneously in Central and Eastern Europe. Events, however, differed widely from what happened during the Asian crisis that usually serves as the model case for the concept of twin crises. We look at three elements that help explaining the nature of events in Central and Eastern Europe: the problem of currency mismatches, the relation between currency and banking crises, and the importance of multinational banks for financial stability. It is shown that theoretical considerations concerning internal capital markets of multinational banks help understand what happened on capital markets and in the financial sector of the region. We discuss opposing effects of multinational banking on financial stability and find that institutional differences are the key to understand differing effects of the global financial crisis. In particular, we argue that it matters if international activities are organized by subsidiaries or by cross-border financial services, how large the share of foreign currency-denominated credit is and whether the exchange rate is fixed or flexible. Based on these three criteria we give an explanation why the pattern of the crisis in the Baltic States differed markedly from that in Poland and the Czech Republic, the two largest countries of the region.
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Upswing Continues - European Debt Crisis still Unresolved: Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2011
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie,
2011
Abstract
In spring 2011 the world economy is in an upswing phase, especially due to the momentum in the emerging economies. Germany too is experiencing a strong upturn. The institutes expect that German GDP will increase this year by 2.8% and by 2.0% next year. For 2011 and 2012, an unemployment rate of 6.9% and 6.5%, respectively, is forecast. Growth forces will gradually shift towards domestic demand. Wages will increase in the wake of the upswing, and the inflation rate will be relatively high at 2.4% in 2011 and 2.0% in 2012. Government net borrowing will amount to 1.7% in 2011 and in 2012 will decline to 0.9%, in relation to nominal GDP. The greatest forecast risks are international. If a reduction in the oil supply were to come about because of increasing unrest in the Arab world or if the European debt and confidence crisis were to worsen, this would have a clear effect on the economy. German economic policy is well-advised to maintain its consolidation course and to work for amendments to the European Stability Mechanism.
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Prävention und Management von Staatsinsolvenzen in der Europäischen Währungsunion
Oliver Holtemöller, Tobias Knedlik
Wirtschaftsdienst,
2011
Abstract
EU institutions are currently dealing with the management of debt crises in European countries. The instruments of crisis management are, however, timely restricted and expire in 2013. It is planned to install a permanent crisis prevention and resolution mechanism for the time after. In this contribution the authors develop such a permanent crisis prevention and resolution mechanism.
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The Political Setting of Social Security Contributions in Europe in the Business Cycle
Toralf Pusch, Ingmar Kumpmann
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
Social security revenues are influenced by business cycle movements. In order to
support the working of automatic stabilizers it would be necessary to calculate social insurance contribution rates independently from the state of the business cycle. This paper investigates whether European countries set social contribution rates according to such a rule. By means of VAR estimations, country-specific effects can be analyzed – in contrast to earlier studies which used a panel design. As a result, some countries under investigation seem to vary their social contribution rates in a procyclical way.
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Möglichkeiten für Vollbeschäftigungspolitik im Rahmen des Europäischen Makroökonomischen Dialogs
Toralf Pusch, A. Heise
K. Busch (Hrsg.), Wirtschaftliche und Soziale Integration in der Europäischen Union,
2010
Abstract
A decade after its introduction the European Monetary Union is no more undisputed. While a successful record regarding price stability cannot be doubted, the EMU still suffers from high unemployment – not only related to the Financial Crisis. In this contribution we want to cast light on the question how this might be related to a dismal mix of wage policy and monetary policy. Taking a consideration of the European Macroeconomic Dialogue as a starting point, we develop a game theoretic model which can explain different macroeconomic alternatives. As a result we present a reputation equilibrium which would make full employment and price stability compatible and does not rest on overriding the actors’ independence.
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