East German economy in 2011: Despite overall Economic Growth no Progress in Catching Up
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß, Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
All in all, the IWH expects that GDP of East Germany will increase by 2.8% this year. With this forecast, the growth gap with the West will indeed reduce significantly, but the growth rate remains once again behind the West. The reason is not only that the East German federal states have to consolidate their budgets. The weaker increase in aggregate output is also due to export and innovation weakness, the lack of large enterprises, the aging and declining population.
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An Economic Life in Vain − Path Dependence and East Germany’s Pre- and Post-Unification Economic Stagnation
Ulrich Blum
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2011
Abstract
20 years after unification, the East German twin’s economic position is relatively stagnant compared to most of the West German productivity and income variables. The strong initial takeoff until the mid-end 1990s ended at a level of 70% to 80% of the western reference. In this paper, two interdependent hypotheses are put to the test: (i) that the communist economy prior to unification was on a stagnating path contrary to what standard analyses show; (ii) that strong elements of path dependence exist and that the switch from plan to market offset the pre-unification stagnation but was not able to repair structural deficits inherited from the past. In fact, looking into West German long-term data, an extremely stable development path can be found that extends from the 19th century to the present. Thus, the analysis of the East German development path is both economically relevant and politically interesting if economic policies are to be formulated.
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Upswing Continues - European Debt Crisis still Unresolved: Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2011
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie,
2011
Abstract
In spring 2011 the world economy is in an upswing phase, especially due to the momentum in the emerging economies. Germany too is experiencing a strong upturn. The institutes expect that German GDP will increase this year by 2.8% and by 2.0% next year. For 2011 and 2012, an unemployment rate of 6.9% and 6.5%, respectively, is forecast. Growth forces will gradually shift towards domestic demand. Wages will increase in the wake of the upswing, and the inflation rate will be relatively high at 2.4% in 2011 and 2.0% in 2012. Government net borrowing will amount to 1.7% in 2011 and in 2012 will decline to 0.9%, in relation to nominal GDP. The greatest forecast risks are international. If a reduction in the oil supply were to come about because of increasing unrest in the Arab world or if the European debt and confidence crisis were to worsen, this would have a clear effect on the economy. German economic policy is well-advised to maintain its consolidation course and to work for amendments to the European Stability Mechanism.
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Vigorous upswing continues
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
The worldwide upswing has gained momentum since last autumn. The main cause for the high growth dynamics is a monetary policy that is very expansive not only in advanced economies, where the utilization rates for production capacities are mostly still low, but also in emerging market economies that in general have already recovered from the Great Recession.
The German economy participates in the worldwide upswing. Here the recovery is ahead of those in most other advanced economies. Both exports and domestic demand are strongly expanding. One reason for the high growth dynamics is that key interest rates are particularly low for Germany, as the ECB has to take into account that many euro area economies are much more fragile. In addition, Germany still benefits from the wage moderation and the labour market reforms in the past decade: employment is expanding strongly, and firms find many profitable investment projects.
Major risks for this forecast are structural problems of some advanced economies that had become visible during the Great Recession and are still unresolved (concerning the US housing market and the crisis of confidence in the fiscal sustainability of some euro area countries in particular). A further risk is the possibility of further oil price hikes due to political instability in North Africa and the Middle East.
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Can Korea Learn from German Unification?
Ulrich Blum
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
We first analyze pre-unification similarities and differences between the two Germanys and the two Koreas in terms of demographic, social, political and economic status. An important issue is the degree of international openness. “Stone-age” type communism of North Korea and the seclusion of the population prevented inner-Korean contacts and contacts with rest of the world. This may create enormous adjustment costs if institutions, especially informal institutions, change. We go on by showing how transition and integration interact in a potential unification process based on the World Bank Revised Minimum Standard Model (RMSM) and on the Salter-Swan-Meade model. In doing so, we relate the macro and external impacts on an open economy to its macro-sectoral structural dynamics. The findings suggest that it is of utmost importance to relate microeconomic policies to the macroeconomic ties and side conditions for both parts of the country. Evidence from Germany suggests that the biggest general error in unification was neglecting these limits, especially limitations to policy instruments. Econometric analysis supports these findings. In the empirical part, we consider unification as an “investment” and track down the (by-and-large immediate to medium-term) costs and the (by-and-large long-term) benefits of retooling a retarded communist economy. We conclude that, from a South-Korean
perspective, the Korean unification will become relatively much more expensive than the German unification and, thus, not only economic, but to a much larger degree political considerations must include the tying of neighboring countries into the convergence process. We finally provide, 62 years after Germany’s division and 20 years after unification, an outlook on the strength of economic inertia in order to show that it may take much more than a generation to compensate the damage inflicted by the communist system.
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Construction Industry Survey 2011: Modernization Boosts Construction Upswing
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2011
Abstract
In 2010 the East German construction sector has raised mainly thanks to a very strong demand for renovation and modernization activities of private households. This segment is likely to continue its overall trend towards growth in 2011 due to an increase in average net incomes and low mortgage interest rates. The private non-residential sector will be boosted by a strong development of the whole German economy. However, the civil contractors look to the future more skeptically. Their activities depend to a large extent on public investment, which as a result of diminishing stimulation after the crisis will likely shrink in 2011.
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Midterm Projection: Economic Development and the Public Budget in the Years 2011 - 2015
Kristina vanDeuverden, Rolf Scheufele
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
In 2010 economic activity in Germany improved steadily. While global trade increased in the first half of the year – and, thus, German exports – domestic demand became increasingly important. Private Investment recovered and – even more important – consumption contributed to economic growth. Moreover, employment reached an all-time high and unemployment decreased further during the year.
Until 2015 economic growth will keep to be relatively high. German external trade will still gain momentum by the development of global trade. However, economic development will be driven more and more by domestic demand. Interest rates will remain relatively low and stimulate investment activity. Moreover, unemployment will continually shrink, partly reflecting demographic developments, but partly mirrored in increasing employment. Due to a higher degree of employment security and rising wages consumption will gain momentum. Real GDP will increase by 2.3% in 2011 and by 1.7% in 2012. From 2013 – 2015 it will rise by 1½% on average.
While the German economy will gain strength, public budgets will clearly improve. In 2010 the deficit ratio exceeds the Maastricht threshold only slightly; in relation to nominal GDP the German budget deficit was about 3.2%. Concerning the high fiscal stimulus, mainly given in the years 2009 and 2010, the deficit ratio is surprisingly low. While income and wage taxes as well as the receipts from social security contributions already increased, unemployment benefits already declined substantially.
The midterm projection shows a favorable development of public budgets. While employment remains high and unemployment continually decreases, the wage tax and the social security contributions will boost revenue. On contrast the same development will lessen public expenditure, especially transfers.
This projection relies heavily on the assumption that fiscal policy will trace its consolidation plans. For instance, it is assumed that the federal level will implement their plans from summer/autumn 2010 and that there will be no additional measures. In this case, in 2015 the German public budget will show a surplus of ¼% in relation to GDP.
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Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland geht weiter – Krisenprävention und Krisenmanagement in Europa unter Reformdruck
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
We estimate that in 2010, the German GDP has expanded by 3.7%. In all probability, growth will continue in the two following years, with output rising by 2.3% in 2011 and by 1.7% in 2012. Thus, we see the recovery of the German economy after the Great Recession as a starting point for a strong upswing. In case the fiscal crisis of peripheral euro area countries intensified, however, or if confidence in the US dollar waned due to the extremely expansive policy in the US, expectations would quickly turn pessimistic. The key task for the European economic policy is improving its ability to manage and prevent financial and fiscal crises.
The recovery of the world economy continues. This is particularly true for the US, but for the European Union as well, in spite of drastic fiscal adjustment programs in Britain and Spain. In most of emerging markets economies, economic policy has been trying to dampen frothy upswings without damaging the high growth dynamics. As a consequence, growth slowed down in Asia after last spring. Leading indicators for China and India, however, point to an acceleration of economic activity during this winter. Neighboring economies, not least the Japanese, will soon benefit from higher exports.
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