IWH-Bauumfrage im Juni 2008: Tiefbau im Abwind, Ausbau im Aufwind
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
Die Geschäftslage bewerten die 300 vom IWH befragten ostdeutschen Bauunternehmen im Juni per saldo besser als in der vorangegangenen Umfrage im April. Anders als sonst im Frühsommer fehlt es dieser Aufwärtsbewegung aber an Schubkraft, sodass die Geschäftslage unter Ausschluss der Saisoneffekte auf dem Niveau vom April verbleibt. Die Geschäftsaussichten bis zum Jahresende werden sowohl gegenüber dem Vorjahr als auch gegenüber der Umfrage im April schlechter bewertet. Diese Gesamtkonstellation ist im Wesentlichen der verhaltenen Stimmung im Bauhauptgewerbe geschuldet, während sich das Geschäftsklima im Ausbaugewerbe im Aufwind befindet.
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Aktuelle Trends: Renditeanstieg in Ostdeutschland zum Stillstand gekommen
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
In den Unternehmen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes Ostdeutschlands betrug die Rendite im Jahr 2006 – aktuellere Daten liegen nicht vor – im Durchschnitt 3,9%, in Westdeutschland lag sie bei 3,2%. Damit stieg sie in der ostdeutschen Industrie das dritte Jahr in Folge nicht weiter an, während die westdeutsche Branche den Rückstand verkürzen konnte. Dies ergab eine im Auftrag des IWH durchgeführte Sonderauswertung der Kostenstrukturen, die jährlich vom Statistischen Bundesamt bei einer repräsentativen Stichprobe von west- und ostdeutschen Unternehmen mit 20 und mehr Beschäftigten erhoben wurden.
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Business Cycle Forecast, Summer 2008: Price Hikes and Financial Crisis Cloud Growth Prospects
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
In the summer of 2008 the turmoil on financial markets and that on the markets for energy dim the prospects for the world economy. The acceleration of the oil price hike during the first half of the year has led to an increase in expected inflation and to higher interest rates on capital markets, while stock prices are going down. At the same time, the financial crisis is far from over, and banks in the US and in Western Europe continue in their efforts to consolidate their balance sheets. Thus, the expansion of credit supply will be scarcer in the next quarters. All this means that demand will slow in the developed economies during the next quarters. However, the massive fiscal stimulus will help the US economy to stabilize, and the world economy still benefits from the high growth dynamics in the emerging markets economies. All in all, the developed economies will not reach their potential growth rate before the second half of 2009. In Germany, the upswing comes to a temporary halt during summer of this year. Slowing foreign demand and the oil price hike induce firms to postpone investments, and private consumption, the soft spot of the upswing in Germany, is still sluggish due to high inflation rates that impair purchasing power. For the end of 2008, chances are good that growth in Germany accelerates again, because German exporters are still penetrating emerging markets as competitiveness does not diminish. All in all, the German economy will grow by 2.3% in 2008 (mainly due to the very high dynamics at the beginning of the year) and by 1.3% in 2009. A main risk of this forecast is that monetary policy fails in easing the high inflationary pressures. As to fiscal policy, efforts to reach sustainable public finances should not weaken.
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Specialization as Strategy for Business Incubators: An Assessment of the Central German Multimedia Center
Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych
Technovation,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
The literature on business incubators (BIs) mainly discusses findings of incubators that do not restrict themselves to specific sectors (diversified incubators). There is a strong disregard of the possible benefits arising from the concept of a sector-specialized business incubator (SBI), although this concept has become more important in recent years. In Germany, about 19% of the incubators can be characterized as being specialized. Since 1999, nearly one-third of all new BIs in Germany opened with a sector-specific focus. This study attempts to approach this research question by examining the advantages and deficiencies of this concept and to address them with empirical observations from an SBI in the city of Halle (Germany), which has an explicit sector-focus on the media industry (MI). We identify key benefits arising from such an incubator concept: (1) high quality premises and equipment, (2) improvement of service and consultancy offerings and (3) image effects for the location. We also find deficiencies of an SBI especially regarding internal networking activities and promotion of linkages to universities. Furthermore a negative working climate impedes interaction. This study offers implications for firms, incubator managers and local policy-makers who are concerned with the instrument of an SBI.
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Technologie- und Gründerzentren im Lichte von Diversifizierung versus Spezialisierung
Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 7,
2008
Abstract
In Germany, a growing tendency can be observed to focus business incubators (BIs) and technology centers and their respective support elements and processes as well as the selection criteria applied by the incubator management on firms from solely one sector or few but complementary sectors and their specific needs and requirements. These are called specialized business incubators (SBIs). Despite the increasing importance of specialization strategies of business incubators as local and regional policy instruments, there are no reliable empirical examinations of the specifics, and advantages in particular, of SBIs compared to more diversified BIs. On the basis of survey-data, that comprises responses from 161 actual firms incubated in 13 diversified BIs and 13 specialized BIs in Germany, this study investigates the mechanisms within the specific context of specialized BIs and their value-added contribution versus the more diversified incubation model. For the first time, this study provides large-scale empirical evidence concerning the effects of adopting a specialization strategy in the context of business incubation.
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Eastern German Economy: No Catching-up in 2008 and 2009
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2008
Abstract
In the New Lander, growth of production is characterized by two diverging developments. On the one hand, the manufacturing sector has expanded strongly while the public service sector as well as the retail sectors has considerably damped economic activity. On the other hand, those firms primarily bound to local markets have gained hardly any momentum, whereas others have been stimulated by external markets in Western Germany and abroad. These differences are mainly due to weak local demand in the wake of a low purchasing power and an ongoing reduction in the population. At the same time, export-oriented firms in the manufacturing sector have benefited from strong external demand, and they will further benefit from it, although somewhat less owing to the slowing world economy. However, as East German exporting firms are less exposed to those countries where the ongoing crisis in the real estate and the financial sector has unfolded its dampening effects the most, they are also less prone to it. Accordingly, gross domestic product will increase by 1,7% this year and 0,8% in 2009. This translates into further improvements on labor markets. Registered unemployment will fall below one million. In particular, manufacturing firms and the private business service sector will increase their demand for labor.
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The Role of the Human Capital and Managerial Skills in Explaining the Productivity Gaps between East and West
Johannes Stephan, Wolfgang Steffen
Eastern European Economics,
No. 6,
2008
Abstract
This paper assess determinants of productivity gaps between firms in the European transition countries and regions and firms in West Germany. The analysis is conducted at the firm level by use of a unique database constructed by field work. The determinants tested in a simple econometric regression model are focussed upon the issue of human capital and modern market-oriented management. The results are novel in as much as a solution was established for the puzzling results in related research with respect to a comparison of formal qualification between East and West. Furthermore, the analysis was able to establish that the kind of human capital and expertise mostly needed in the post-socialist firms are related to the particular requirements of a competitive market-based economic environment. Finally, the analysis also finds empirical support for the role of capital deepening in productivity catch-up, as well as the case that the gaps in labour productivity are most importantly rooted in a more labour-intense production, which does not give rise to a competitive disadvantage.
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Foreign Subsidiaries in the East German Innovation System – Evidence from Manufacturing Industries
Jutta Günther, Björn Jindra, Johannes Stephan
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2008
Abstract
This paper analyses the extent of technological capability of foreign subsidiaries located in East Germany, and looks at the determinants of foreign subsidiaries’ technological sourcing behaviour. The theory of international production underlines the importance of strategic and regional level variables. However, existing empirical approaches omit by and large regional level factors. We employ survey evidence from the “FDI micro data- base” of the IWH, that was only recently made available, to conduct our analyses. We find that foreign subsidiaries are above average technologically active in comparison to the whole East German manufacturing. This can be partially explained by the industrial structure of foreign direct investment. However, only a limited share of foreign subsidiaries with R&D and/or innovation activity source technological knowledge from the East German innovation system. If a subsidiary follows a competence augmenting strategy or does local trade, it is more likely to source technological knowledge locally. The endowment of a region with human capital and a scientific infrastructure has a positive effect too. The findings suggest that foreign subsidiaries in East Germany are only partially linked with the regional innovation system. Policy implications are discussed.
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IWH-Bauumfrage im April 2008: Frühjahr beginnt mit Rückschlag
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2008
Abstract
Die gute Stimmung im ostdeutschen Baugewerbe zu Jahresbeginn hat sich laut Umfrage unter knapp 300 Bauunternehmen im April nicht fortgesetzt. Da sich die witterungsbedingten Behinderungen der Bautätigkeit im ersten Quartal in Grenzen hielten und Aufträge aus den Folgemonaten vorgezogen wurden, fiel die sonst übliche Frühjahrsbelebung bei der aktuellen Lage nur gering aus. Bei den Aussichten blieb sie sogar gänzlich aus. Auch gegenüber dem Vorjahr schätzten die Bauunternehmen sowohl die aktuelle Geschäftslage als auch die Geschäftsaussichten bis zum Spätsommer deutlich schlechter ein.
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Export Promotion Needs the Disclosure of Industrial Potentials – A Case Study for the Federal State of Thuringia
Udo Ludwig, Brigitte Loose, Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2008
Abstract
In countries and regions with weak domestic markets, the orientation towards external markets plays an important rule. This applies even more for economies emerging from the transformation process from a state to a market economy with a small export sector and a continuous decline in the number of residents. The federal state Thuringia presents such an example. There is still a large gap in exports compared to Germany as a whole. The paper deals with the role of exports in economic development and economic measures to increase the export activities of small and medium-sized companies (SMEs) in Thuringia. The study is based on a survey among SMEs in Thuringia on the performance of exporters and non-exporters. One of the main findings shows that export promotion was important only for one among three exporting companies during the last three years. That speaks for the confidence of the firms in their own power. The most measures used to implement or advance export activities are participation in a fair, information sessions on foreign markets and two general instruments to support companies: investment and innovation stimulation. As a result, economic measures make sense, but it should not depend on the age or the size of a company. Besides, the support should not only be given by department of foreign trade, but also by other departments. Finally, especially newcomers should be supported to entry foreign markets.
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