IWH-Bauumfrage im August 2007: Geschäftsklima hat sich stabilisiert
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2007
Abstract
Die Geschäftslage und die Geschäftsaussichten wurden von den 300 vom IWH befragten ostdeutschen Bauunternehmen im August per saldo schlechter beurteilt als vor Jahresfrist. Diese Entwicklung war insofern zu erwarten, als die Basis im vergangenen Jahr durch Vorzieheffekte im Zusammenhang mit der Abschaffung der Eigenheimzulage und der Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer überhöht war. Gegenüber der vorangegangenen Umfrage im Juni gaben mehr Unternehmen eine Besserung ihrer Lage an, unter Ausschluß der Saisoneffekte bedeutet dies aber nicht mehr als Stabilisierung. Die Geschäftsaussichten bis über den Jahreswechsel hinaus werden geringfügig schlechter bewertet.
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Research and Development: important source for product innovation also in East Germany
Jutta Günther, François Peglow
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2007
Abstract
The development and successful introduction of new products is a fundamental feature of a modern knowledge society. After completion of the retrieving technological renewals in East Germany, businesses in the newly-formed German states have to stand up to the competition for marketable concepts and ideas. In doing so, the structural particularities on the strength of transformation are still in force and besides, the embedding of East Germany between high-tech in the West and catching up countries in the East constitutes an additional challenge. This article outlines the innovation activities of East German companies and pursues in the framework of an multivariate analysis to follow up intra-corporate determining factors for product innovations The empirical analysis, employing the IAB establishment panel, shows an active share of innovation participation of companies belonging to the manufacturing industry in East Germany during the years 2002 and 2003. The proportion of companies with product innovation in the newly-formed German states even lies slightly above the reference value for West Germany. Especially companies with an own Research and Development (R&D) department are introducing new products twice as much as companies without an R&D division. The regression analysis proves that own R&D represents the strongest driving force for product innovations in regard to input factors. Moreover, continuing operational education can also be attested a positive impact on innovation activities and emphasizes concurrently the meaning of long-life learning. In reference to business specific characteristics, it stands out that foreign equity participation imposes a significant negative impact of on product innovations. This result, deserving further analysis, indicates the phenomenon of so-called subcontracting.
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Vergleich der Weiterbildungsaktivitäten von Arbeitslosen und Vollzeiterwerbstätigen
Birgit Schultz, Joachim Wilde
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2007
Abstract
Many empirical studies consider either training activities of the unemployed or training activities of the employees in Germany. However, a comprehensive comparison of both groups is missing. The paper closes this gap. Using data of the latest time use survey (Zeitbudgeterhebung) of the Federal Statistical Office, the amount of training is compared for both groups. Furthermore, it is described which types of activities are made use of in particular. Heterogeneity due to different relevant socioeconomic characteristics in the two groups is eliminated by the appliance of a matching procedure. Findings demonstrate that only 49% of the unemployed persons participate in any kind of training activities off the job. In case of the full-time employment 59 % would take part. Concerning the average expenditure of time per week the difference turns around, i.e. the expenditure of time is higher during unemployment. However, a high proportion of the training activities of the unemployed falls upon general training, e.g. by reading books or watching TV. Furthermore, the result is driven by a different potential of time that can be used for training activities off the job. Relating to this potential of time the amount of training activities is still lower during unemployment.
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Business Cycle Update Summer 2007: German Upswing Still Healthy
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
In the summer of 2007, the economies of the European Union and Japan continue their upswing, while the USA is still suffering from economic weakness. The expansion of the East Asian economies remains highly dynamic. Compared to the beginning of the year, conditions at the global financial markets have deteriorated slightly: Long-term interest rates have risen considerably; with notably more than half of a percentage point the increase was especially pronounced in the Euro Area. Furthermore, markets have become increasingly volatile. The less favourable conditions at the global financial markets, among other reasons, will cause the upswing in the Euro Area and Japan to slightly slow down. While the USA will not enter a phase of stagnation, the economy will continue to expand at rates below its potential until 2008. In Germany, the economic recovery took a temporary break in the first half of 2007. While special circumstances (first, brought forward purchases in anticipation of the increase in the value added tax and second, the high construction activity because of the end of home owners subsidies) raised considerably economic activity towards the end of 2006, they caused a downturn in demand in the beginning of 2007. After this short dip, the upswing will recommence. Private consumption will be the main driving force, as incomes have increased considerably in the wake of the improved labour markets conditions. The upswing will continue next year, albeit at a slower pace. Higher interest rates, the appreciation of the Euro and the expected rise in labour costs will have some impact. Overall domestic demand will slow down, but only a little, as household consumption increases. GDP will expand by 2.6% and 2.5% in this and next year, respectively. The number of unemployed persons will decline below 3.5 million in 2008.
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IWH-Industrieumfrage im Juli 2007: Hochstimmung hält an
Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands florieren die Geschäfte auch zu Beginn der zweiten Jahreshälfte. Darauf verweisen die Ergebnisse der IWH-Industrieumfrage vom Juli unter rund 300 Unternehmen. Der Saldo der Geschäftslage ist zwar seit der Maiumfrage um einen Punkt, der Saldo der Geschäftsaussichten um zwei Punkte zurückgegangen, doch insgesamt verbleibt die Einschätzung des Geschäftsklimas auf anhaltend hohem Niveau. Ein Blick auf die Wertungen aus den fachlichen Hauptgruppen zeigt, daß der leichte Rückgang hauptsächlich auf die Konsumgüterproduzenten und hier vor allem auf die Meldungen der Hersteller von Nahrungsgütern über ihre aktuelle Lage zurückzuführen ist.
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„Where Have All the Young Girls Gone …?” Regional Analysis of Young Women’s Migration Behavior
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
The study examines the patterns and determinants of migration flows of young women at the age between 18 and 30 years. At the NUTS-3 regional level, i.e. the district level (Kreise), the German internal migration flows of the year 2005 are explored. From descriptive statistics it can be seen that peripheral regions in East Germany face the strongest migration deficit with respect to young women, whereas agglomerations in West Germany but also in the East benefit from an intense migration surplus within this group. The econometric analysis of determinants of regional migration flows emphasizes the importance of economic, family-related and educational migration motives. Generally speaking, young women tend to choose regions with good income and job opportunities. In addition, they seem to be attracted by regions enabling an appropriate balance between family and career. Furthermore, the existence of excellent educational facilities is a significant pull factor regarding young female migration. This educationally motivated type of migration generates an enduring effect on the regional balance of migration, which is especially true if the educational opportunities in the target region are associated with adequate career perspectives for highly qualified female graduates. In terms of recommendations for action, the study underlines the importance of policy measures improving the regional job and income opportunities. Secondly, the upgrading of fields of study mainly chosen by women seems to be a suitable way to stimulate female immigration. Moreover, the enhancement of the social infrastructure, which promotes a satisfactory work life balance, might attract young women or at least reduce the number of them leaving the region.
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Aktuelle Trends: IWH-Konjunkturbarometer Ostdeutschland: Wirtschaftliche Dynamik verliert im Sommer an Schwung
Udo Ludwig, Franziska Exß
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
In den Monaten April bis Juni hat sich das Wachstum der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Aktivität in Ostdeutschland leicht beschleunigt. Zwar ist es nach der witterungsbedingt frühzeitigen Abarbeitung eines Großteils des Überhangs an Bauaufträgen aus dem vergangenen Jahr zu dem erwarteten Rückschlag im Baugewerbe gekommen, die Expansion der industriellen Produktion hat sich jedoch fortgesetzt. Die Hersteller von Investitionsgütern und von Konsumgütern setzten erneut mehr Güter im Inland und im Ausland ab als in den drei Monaten zuvor. Dagegen schwächelte der Absatz der in Ostdeutschland produzierten Vorleistungsgüter sowohl in Deutschland als auch außerhalb. Insgesamt legte die Industrieproduktion damit nicht mehr so kräftig zu wie zu Jahresbeginn. In den Alten Bundesländern stagnierte sie dagegen sogar. Der Handel hat seinen Tiefpunkt infolge des Kaufkraftentzugs durch die Anhebung der Mehrwertsteuer inzwischen erreicht. Der Umsatz im Einzelhandel stieg allerdings nur wenig, der im Großhandel setzte seine moderate Expansion fort. Zum Zuwachs der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Aktivität trugen auch das Verkehrs- und das Nachrichtengewerbe sowie die unternehmensnahen Dienstleistungsbereiche bei.
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East German Economy: Demand Push Stronger than Structural Deficiencies
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2007
Abstract
In 2006, growth of production was surprisingly strong in Eastern Germany. The structural deficiencies there would have suggested a slower pace. In particular, linkages with national and international business cycles have been underestimated. To a large part, the reason why output grew by 3 per cent did not come from Eastern Germany itself, but from the Old Länder and from abroad. In the New Länder, the strong upward swing in investment activity stimulated the economy. However, owing to a small increase in total income of private households, their purchasing power lagged behind.
The improved ability of East German firms to absorb cyclical impulses from exports and from Germany’s general investment activity proved to be a crucial factor. In particular, the endowment of workplaces with modern production facilities as well as the continued reduction in the disadvantages with respect to cost-competitiveness in the tradable goods sector were beneficial. The labour cost advantage compared to West German competitors increased further while the disadvantage compared to those from Central and Eastern Europe decreased.
Benefiting from these factors, economic activity in Eastern Germany will grow faster than in the Old Länder as long as the upswing in Germany and abroad remains strong. In 2007 and 2008, investments – especially in equipment – and exports will be the driving forces again. For exports, the strongly expanding markets in Central and Eastern Europe as well as in Russia will gain in importance. As income and employment prospects improve, private consumption will support the growth in production. Registered unemployment should decrease below the 1-million threshold.
Manufacturing will remain the primary force of the upswing; its advantages in production costs will not vanish as long as, even in presence of scarcity of skilled labour, salaries and wages do not increase more than in Western Germany. In the wake of robust economic growth, the New Länder will make further progress in catching up with respect to production and income.
Companies will regain support from the banking industry. Yet, investment capital still stems from public funding programmes to a non-negligible extent. In the medium run, access to credit will ease as a result of further improvements in the firms’ net worth position. However, dependency on internal funds remains high and exposes companies to comparatively strong cyclical risks. In an economic downturn, the structural deficiencies of the East German economy will impair economic expansion.
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IWH-Bauumfrage im Juni 2007: Zurück zur Normalität?
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2007
Abstract
Die 300 vom IWH befragten ostdeutschen Bauunternehmen bewerteten sowohl die Geschäftslage als auch die Geschäftsaussichten im Juni per saldo schlechter als noch vor einem Jahr. Gegenüber der Umfrage im April zeigt sich dagegen in den originären Lageurteilen eine Besserung. Der Aufwärtsbewegung fehlt es allerdings an dem sonst üblichen frühsommerlichen Schwung, so daß sich unter Ausschluß der Saisoneffekte die Geschäftslage im Verlauf nochmals um zehn Saldenpunkte verschlechtert hat. Diese Entwicklung ist immer noch als ein Stück des Wegs zurück zur Normalität anzusehen.
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Institutionelle Defizite und wachsende Spannungen in der Euro-Zone
Hubert Gabrisch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2007
Abstract
The introduction of the Euro was certainly a success. Nevertheless, behind this success one may find some increasing asymmetries and imbalances across member countries, which may undermine the stability of the common currency in the long run. Tensions include the paralysis of fiscal policy, increasing divergence in per capita income, a high volatility of real state prices, and diverging unit labour cost developments. The given forms of macroeconomic coordination seem not to be appropriate to mitigate the problems. Obviously, countries can compete with wage policy only after currencies and their exchange rates were abolished, and the use of fiscal policy has been restricted. In particular, Germany and Austria were successful in competitive wage policy, while countries like Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy, and also France did not yet use the competitiveness channel. Germany was able to reduce its unit labour costs more than other countries by labour market reforms and higher indirect taxes in replacing social taxes. However, the advantage may proof to be temporary only, for other countries will be forced to follow the German example. Given an ECB inflation target of 2 %, more competitive wage policy in the Euro area might jeopardize the stability of the currency through deflation and higher unemployment. It does not wonder that the discussion on other and new forms of macroeconomic coordination revived recently. This debate does not only include the introduction of a central EU budget with anti-cyclical effects, but also forms of direct and indirect coordination of national wage policies. In any case, it would be useful to oblige national wage policies to obey the common interest of the Union.
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