Climate Stress Tests, Bank Lending, and the Transition to the Carbon-neutral Economy
Larissa Fuchs, Huyen Nguyen, Trang Nguyen, Klaus Schaeck
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2024
Abstract
Does banking supervision affect borrowers‘ transition to the carbon-neutral economy? We use a unique identification strategy that combines the French bank climate pilot exercise with borrowers‘ carbon emissions to present two novel findings. First, climate stress tests actively facilitate borrowers‘ transition to a low-carbon economy through a lending channel. Stress-tested banks increase loan volumes but simultaneously charge higher interest rates for brown borrowers. Second, additional lending is associated with some improvements in environmental performance. While borrowers commit more to reduce carbon emissions and are more likely to evaluate environmental effects of their projects, they neither reduce direct carbon emissions, nor terminate relationships with environmentally unfriendly suppliers. Our findings establish a causal link between bank climate stress tests and borrowers‘ reductions in transition risk.
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Klimastresstests, Kreditvergabeverhalten der Banken und der Übergang zur klimaneutralen Wirtschaft
Larissa Fuchs, Huyen Nguyen, Trang Nguyen, Klaus Schaeck
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2024
Abstract
Kann die Bankenaufsicht den Übergang zu einer kohlenstoffneutralen Wirtschaft unterstützen, indem sie die Kreditvergabe der Banken an Unternehmen beeinflusst? Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Kreditvergabe der Banken vor und nach dem weltweit ersten Klimastresstest in Frankreich und die Reaktion der kreditnehmenden Unternehmen. Die dem Stresstest unterworfenen Banken geben kohlenstoffintensiven Unternehmen mehr Kredite. Zugleich verlangen sie ihnen aber höhere Zinssätze ab. Die kohlenstoffintensiven Kreditnehmer, deren Banken sich dem Klimastresstest unterzogen haben, verpflichten sich eher zu ehrgeizigen Emissionszielen und integrieren eher Umweltaspekte in die Bewertung von Investitionsprojekten. Jedoch reduzieren sie weder direkt ihre Kohlenstoffemissionen noch beenden sie Beziehungen zu klimaschädlichen Lieferanten. Die Studie belegt somit einen kausalen Zusammenhang zwischen Klimastresstests der Banken und der Verringerung des Transitionsrisikos der Kreditnehmer.
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14.12.2023 • 30/2023
Exports and private consumption weak ‒ Germany is waiting for an economic upturn
In the winter of 2023/2024, the German economy is still in a downturn. Parts of industry have lost competitiveness, real incomes have fallen in 2023 due to inflation, and there is uncertainty about the course of fiscal policy. However, rising real incomes and a slight increase in exports should cause a pickup from spring onwards. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 0.3% in 2023 and to expand by 0.5% in 2024 (East Germany: +0.5% and +0.7%). In September, the IWH forecast had assumed a decline of 0.5% for Germany in 2023 and expected growth of 0.9% for the coming year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Climate Stress Tests, Bank Lending, and the Transition to the Carbon-Neutral Economy
Larissa Fuchs, Huyen Nguyen, Trang Nguyen, Klaus Schaeck
SSRN Working Papers,
No. 4427729,
2023
Abstract
Does banking supervision affect borrowers’ transition to the carbon-neutral economy? We use a unique identification strategy that combines the French bank climate pilot exercise with borrowers’ carbon emissions to present two novel findings. First, climate stress tests actively facilitate borrowers’ transition to a low-carbon economy through a lending channel. Stress-tested banks increase loan volumes but simultaneously charge higher interest rates for brown borrowers. Second, additional lending is associated with some improvements in environmental performance. While borrowers commit more to reduce carbon emissions and are more likely to evaluate environmental effects of their projects, they neither reduce direct carbon emissions, nor terminate relationships with environmentally unfriendly suppliers. Our findings establish a causal link between bank climate stress tests and borrowers’ reductions in transition risk.
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Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties Globalisation has led to an increase in votes for the political fringes...
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Loan Securitisation during the Transition to a Low-carbon Economy
Isabella Müller, Huyen Nguyen, Trang Nguyen
VoxEU CEPR,
May
2023
Abstract
Banks play a crucial role in the transition to a low-carbon economy, but they also expose themselves to climate transition risk. This column shows that banks use corporate loan securitisation to shift climate transition risk to less-regulated shadow banking entities. This behaviour affects carbon premia in loan contracts. When banks can use securitisation to manage transition risk, their climate policies that target only activities reflected in their books may not be as effective as bank regulators hope for.
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Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one...
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Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one...
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ENTRANCES
ENTRANCES Energy Transitions from Coal and Carbon: Effects on Societies ...
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