What Determines the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems?
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Jena Economic Research Papers, Nr. 2007-006,
No. 6,
2007
Abstract
We assess the efficiency of regional innovation systems (RIS) in Germany by means of a knowledge production function. This function relates private sector research and development (R&D) activity in a region to the number of inventions that have been registered by residents of that region. Different measures and estimation approaches lead to rather similar assessments. We find that both spillovers within the private sector as well as from universities and other public research institutions have a positive effect on the efficiency of private sector R&D in the respective region. It is not the mere presence and size of public research institutions, but rather the intensity of interactions between private and public sector R&D that leads to high RIS efficiency. We find that relationship between the diversity of a regions’ industry structure and the efficiency of its innovation system is inversely u-shaped. Regions dominated by large establishments tend to be less efficient than regions with a lower average establishment size.
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Considerable Export Potentials in Eastern Germany
Götz Zeddies
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2007
Abstract
For a long time, the Federal Republic of Germany is one of the countries with the highest export performance in the world. But a closer examination of East- and West-Germany reveals substantial regional differences. The collabse of the markets in the eastern European countries, which were the main trading partners of GDR, after the breakdown of communism caused a sustainable decline of East-German exports. Nevertheless it was expected that the economic recovery in the former communist countries and the access to new export markets in the western world would cause an upward movement of East-German Trade. Although during the last years East-German exports grew faster than those of Western Germany, the east German share in Germanys total exports is still comparatively low. On the basis of a gravity-model of trade, bilateral export potencials are empirically analysed. This is done for the Federal Republic of Germany as a whole, and seperately forEast and West-Germany. Afterwards, the calculated export potencials are compared with actual exports. The results show that Germany as a whole exceeds its export potencial against the majority of its main trading partners. The differentiated analysis for East and West-Germany supports the hypothesis that Germanys high export performance stems from the western part of the country, whereas the eastern part exploits its export potencial with Germanys main trading partners only to the half. The unexploited export potencials as well as the higher concentration on the fast-growing central and eastern European markets imply considerable potencials for East-German exports to grow in the future.
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Analysis of location of large-area shopping centres - A probalistic gravity model for the Halle-Leipzig area
Alexander Kubis, Maria Hartmann
Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft,
No. 1,
2007
Abstract
A profund analysis of large-area shopping centres from the perspective of retail, but also of communes is of importance for the choice of site selection. In central Germany, the Halle–Leipzig area represents an example of strong competitiveness between the different participants in retail. The analysis described in this article is based on the MCI Model of Nakanishi and Cooper, which is used to investigate the regional influences of nine large shopping centres in the area of interest. The analysis demonstrates, that the studied shopping centres intensely affect the structure of retail in the region and exert a strong influence on the structural weakness of the surrounding cities due to their relative success in comparison to other retail locations city centres. An important volume of the turnover of the administrative districts flows to the analysed shopping centres. On the other hand, the article describes the influence of a systematic location decision on the reachable turnover potential of the modelized large-area shopping centres among each other. The shopping centres Saale Park (today Nova Eventis) near Leipzig and the Paunsdorf Center in Leipzig show the biggest influence on the competing centres.
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Threshold for employment and unemployment. A spatial analysis of German RLM's 1992-2000
Christian Dreger, Reinhold Kosfeld
External Publications,
2006
Abstract
Changes in production and employment are closely related over the course of the business cycle. However, as exemplified by the laws of Verdoorn (1949, 1993) and Okun (1962, 1970), thresholds seem to be present in the relationship. Due to capacity reserves of the firms, output growth must exceed certain levels for the creation of new jobs or a fall in the unemployment rate. While Verdoorn's law focuses on the growth rate of output sufficient for an increase in employment, in Okun's law, the fall in the unemployment rate becomes the focus of attention. In order to assess the future development of employment and unemployment, these thresholds have to be taken into account. They serve as important guidelines for policymakers. In contrast to previous studies, we present joint estimates for both the employment and unemployment threshold. Due to demographic patterns and institutional settings on the labour market, the two thresholds can differ, implying that minimum output growth needed for a rise in employment may not be sufficient for a simultaneous drop in the unemployment rate. Second, regional information is considered to a large extent. In particular, the analysis is carried out using a sample of 180 German regional labour markets, see Eckey (2001). Since the cross-sections are separated by the flows of job commuters, they correspond to travel-to-work areas. Labour mobility is high within a market, but low among the entities. As the sectoral decomposition of economic activities varies across the regions, the thresholds are founded on a heterogeneous experience, leading to more reliable estimates.The contribution to the literature is twofold. First, to the best of our knowledge, no previous paper has investigated a similar broad regional dataset for the German economy as a whole before. By using a panel dataset, information on the regional distributions around the regression lines as well as theirs positional changes is provided for each year. Second, the methods applied are of new type. They involve a mixture of pooled and spatial econometric techniques. Dependencies across the regions may result from common or idiosyncratic (region specific) shocks. In particular, the eigenfunction decomposition approach suggested by Griffith (1996, 2000) is used to identify spatial and non-spatial components in regression analysis. As the spatial pattern may vary over time, inference is conducted on the base of a spatial SUR model. Due to this setting, efficient estimates of the thresholds are obtained. With the aid of a geographic information system (GIS) variation of the spatial components can be made transparent. With Verdoorn’s and Okun’s law the figures show some significant patterns become obvious over time. In respect to Verdoorn’s law, for instance, a stripe of high values in the north-western part from Schleswig-Holstein via Lower Saxony and North Rhine Westfalia to Rhineland Palatinate is striking in all years but 1994 and 1995. In most periods the spatial component is likewise concentrated in Saxony. Clusters of low values can be found in northern Bavaria and, in some periods, in Thüringen and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Other parts of Germany appear to be more fragmented consisting of relative small clusters of low, medium and high values of the spatial component. With Okun’s law some changing spatial patterns arise. In all, spatially filtering provides valuable insights into the spatial dimensions of the laws of Verdoorn and Okun.
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Prekäre Einkommenslagen ind Deutschland - ein Ost-West-Vergleich 1996-2002
Herbert S. Buscher, Juliane Parys
Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv,
No. 4,
2006
Abstract
The paper investigates the distribution of equivalence-weighted net household income for West and East Germany, covering the period from 1996 to 2002. The data set used is the annual cross section data set “Mikrozensus”. The main issues of the paper are twofold. First, we analyze standard measures of income distributions as well as measures of inequality. Second, we set up a Logit model to explain relative poorness in East and West Germany using Mikrozensus data to capture household characteristics. The main focus in this section deals with the question how different types of forms of living and the number of children will affect the risk of falling into precarious income situations. The results show that the risk of getting poor is higher for families with children as well as for single persons with children.
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Too old to work? The impact of age on productivity
Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2006
Abstract
Due to the public debate on the raising legal re-tirement age in Germany labor market research has recently focused on an explanation of the low labor market participation rate of elders. In the economic discussion the low participation is pri-marily explained by a supposed imbalance of la-bor costs and returns for old workers. Whereas wages rise with increasing age, the individual productivity seems to fall beyond a certain age. Gerontological research supports this view, since it documents an age-driven decline of physical and certain mental abilities. The study empirically evaluates the thesis of a diminishing individual productivity at higher ages. The analysis is done on the basis of a new dataset for German firms of the manufacturing sector. Using these data the effect of the employee’s age on a firm’s productiv-ity is estimated and conclusions on the job per-formance of workers at different ages are drawn. The performed cross-section-regressions of the years 2003 and 2000 indicate an inverted u-shaped age-productivity-profile. The 25-44 year olds turn out to be the most productive, the share of the over 44 year old workers seems to dampen productivity. However the 15-24 age group makes the lowest productivity contribution. Moreover a positive effect of firm-related experience can be found. Due to elders’ higher stock of firm specific human capital this might at least partly compen-sate the unfavorable effects of aging.
From a political perspective these findings sup-port the view, that an increasing legal retirement age will not automatically lead to a remarkable extension of the labor demand for older people. In addition to legal aspects the wage schemes and the actual productivity profiles in higher age have to be linked more closely together.
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Implementing an International Lender of Last Resort
Tobias Knedlik
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 20,
2006
Abstract
Current research discusses various general frameworks for installing an international lender of last resort (ILOLR). However, it remains unclear how the ILOLR should actually operate. This paper discusses six different options of construction of an ILOLR who supports central banks in the case of currency crises. The paper concludes that the cost efficient version of the ILOLR would be direct interventions by the IMF by the use of IMF resources and the right to dispose additional reserves from central banks. The paper considers measures of cost efficiency, such as cost of borrowing, intervention, and sterilization and moral hazard problems.
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Microeconometric Evaluation and the Selection Bias – A practical Survey of Nonparametrical Solution Methods
Eva Reinowski
Zeitschrift für Evaluation 2,
No. 2,
2006
Abstract
The application of evaluation strategies becomes more important in various fields of study. The problem of self-selection associated with microeconomic evaluation can be solved in different ways, but nonparametrical solutions are most popular. The study gives an overview of nonparametrical solution methods for this problem. The aim is to close the gap between introductory and the more sophisticated literature and to give some practical guidance for the choice of the appropriate method for empirical application. The assumptions as well as advantages and drawbacks for empirical application and the requirements to the data base are described for every approach. It becomes clear that there is no ‘magic bullet’. For an unbiased estimation the assumptions have to be fulfilled and the data at hand must be compatible with the respective method.
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The relationship between unemployment and output in post-communist countries
Hubert Gabrisch, Herbert Buscher
Post-Communist Economies,
2006
Abstract
Unemployment is still disappointingly high in most Central and East European countries, and might be a reflection of the ongoing adjustment to institutional shocks resulting from systemic transition, or it may be caused by high labour market rigidity, or aggregate demand that is too weak. In this paper we have investigated the dynamics of unemployment and output in those eight post-communist countries, which entered the EU in 2004. We used a model related to Okun’s Law; i.e. the first differences in unemployment rates were regressed on GDP growth rates. We estimated country and panel regressions with instrument variables (TSLS) and applied a few tests to the data and regression results. We assume transition of labour markets to be accomplished when a robust relationship exists between unemployment rate changes and GDP growth. Moreover, the estimated coefficients contain information about labour market rigidity and unemployment thresholds of output growth. Our results suggest that the transition of labour markets can be regarded as completed since unemployment responds to output changes and not to a changing institutional environment that destroys jobs in the state sector. The regression coefficients have demonstrated that a high trend rate of productivity and a high unemployment intensity of output growth have been occurring since 1998. Therefore, we conclude that labour market rigidities do not play an important role in explaining high unemployment rates. However, GDP growth is dominated by productivity progress and the employment-relevant component of aggregate demand is too low to reduce the high level of unemployment substantially.
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