EU Eastern Enlargement and Structural Change: Specialization Patterns in Accession Countries and Economic Dynamics in the Single Market
Albrecht Kauffmann, P. J. J. Welfens, A. Jungmittag, C. Schumann
Diskussionsbeiträge des Europäischen Instituts für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW), Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Nr. 106,
No. 106,
2003
Abstract
This paper analyses key issues of structural change and specialization patterns in the economies of an enlarged European Union. In all transition countries we observe a shift from the agricultural and industrial sector towards the service sector in terms of employment and productivity; however, in some countries a reindustrialisation drives is observed in a late transition stage. While some countries namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Estonia and Slovenia, have improved their productivity especially in medium-technology-intensive industries and may advance on the technological ladder, others remain unchanged and seem to get locked in labour-intensive industrial sectors. In the context of EU-enlargement, we expect trade creation – going along with a rise of intra-industry trade – and higher FDI-activities. Countries will have to adjust along the logic of comparative advantage, however, technological upgrading and human capital formation are fields in which government can stimulate the direction of comparative advantage. According to the Gerschenkron-hypothesis the accession countries have an “advantage of backwardness. Since accession countries have a low R&D-GDP ratio in the early transition stage rising government expenditures on research and development plus higher education is crucial. We expect the EU-15 countries in general to benefit from enlargement but gains will be asymmetric across countries: economic geography matters. Austria, Germany, the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Italy and France are likely to profit more than the other members of EU-15. Germany and Austria additionally play a particularly crucial role as origins of FDI. Future research should focus on the speed and the scope of structural adjustment.
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Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2003
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2003
Abstract
The global economy is in the midst of a phase of weakness. In the course of next year, at the earliest, GDP will in many regions expand a little faster than potential output. The German economy, even, remains in a phase of prolonged weakness. In the second half of this year an economic recovery is expected to start here. However, it will proceed only slowly. Aggregate capacity utilisation will continue to decline, and the state of the labour market will deteriorate further. Although the recovery will firm next year and domestic demand will rise slightly, economic growth in Germany will continue to lack dynamism.
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Empirical methods for analysising the risks of financial crises
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 3,
2003
Abstract
he vulnerability against financial crises of EU candidate countries and other Central and East European countries is on the agenda of the Institute for Economic Research Halle. Research concentrates on the developing of effective early warning indicators and includes a strong orientation on quantitative methods. This volume presents selected methods for the analyse of financial fragility. The finding complete the signals approach, which is used by the IWH for routine checks of the risk potential of EU candidate an other countries of the region. The four studies presented here were written by the scientific staff of the IWH and by guest researchers. Their objective is to deepen insights into selected problems of financial fragility by using alternative methods.
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Regional economic effects of hosting the Olympic Games 2012 in Leipzig and its partner towns - An analysis of infrastructure investments
Peter Franz, Franz Kronthaler
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
Together with the cities of Chemnitz, Dresden, Halle and Riesa the East German city of Leipzig has applied as venue for the Olympic Games 2012. With its application Leipzig competed with four economically by far stronger West German cities (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Hamburg). On April 12, 2003 the National Olympic Committee had to elect the national candidate for 2012 out of this bundle of five applying cities and nominated Leipzig. With the organization of this big event the city of Leipzig and its partner cities expect a strong impulse for regional development. This study tries to estimate the potential economic effects of the planned investment with regard to infrastructure. Important results: Regarding directly the job effects connected with the investment and development of the infrastructure about 3,500 additional jobs are to be expected for a period of ten years. The infrastructure investment planned so far for the Olympiad will contribute only partially to eliminate important infrastructural bottlenecks in the region. Nevertheless the planned infrastructure facilities would have the effect that the new ‘olympia region Leipzig’ would remain attractive also after 2012 as venue for large sport events.
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Current economic situation: German economy continues to stagnate
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2003
Abstract
This forecast updates the IWH Economic Outlook 2003. Amid the threatening war with Iraq, the sharply increased oil prices and the continued Euro appreciation, the economic forecast for Germany is lowered. Gross domestic product is will rise by 0.8% in 2003 and by 2.1% in the following year. Due to the weak economy, the downward pressure on employment continues to increase. Unemployment in 2003 and 2004 will clearly surpass the 4 million mark.
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A Projection of Future Productivity Growth Potentials in the Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries Manufacturing Sector
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2003
Abstract
The assessment of future economic development in EU accession candidates critically depends on future productivity growth. A projection of future productivity growth in manufacturing industry can make use of experience from other countries developments in the course of their integration into the European Union.
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Significant Progress in East German Machine Construction Industry
Siegfried Beer
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2003
Abstract
The restructuring of the mechanical engineering industry of the new Länder has displayed clearly positive effects. Between 1997 and 2001, productivity and turnover have increased by about 25 %. Since mid 1999 the number of employees has also gone up again. Business surveys indicate an improvement in profitability. This positive development is due to an increase in competitiveness which is based on new product lines together with more effective innovation activities. Growth has also been enhanced by the enlargement and modernisation of the capital stock and a moderate movement of wages. Despite this progress the east German engineering industry as a whole does by far not reach the productivity figures of its west German counterpart. Differences explaining this gap are found in the product structure with dominating customer specific products and in the firm size with a smaller number of employees in the East.
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Sind Haushalte mit Wohneigentum sparsamer als Mieterhaushalte?
Ruth Grunert
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 171,
2003
Abstract
In this paper examines the data of the income and consumption survey of 1998 with regard to savings and wealth. Households owning their property (owner households) and households renting the property (tenant households) are analysed seperatly and then compared. For further insight these two groups are also devided into East and West German households. In 1998, almost half of the West German and almost a quarter of the East German private households owned property they occupied themselves. The average owner household saves a monthly amount three times as large as the tenant household. The decisive economizing motive for the owner households is servicing its mortgages and loans. However, at the same time, there is the necessity to form reserves for the property maintainance as well as the renovation. In comparison to tenant households, owner households which no longer have to service mortgages or loans, have a higher average rate of saving. The estimate of the saving by means of regression analysis confirms the significant positive influence of the “owner” status on savings. However, in every estimate the houshold’s income proves to be the main influence on savings activity.
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IWH Economic Outlook 2003: Waiting for the Upswing in Germany - Waiting for Godot?
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
The outlook forecasts the economic developments in the world, the Euro Area and Germany in 2003. A general tendency is given for 2004. The world economy and the US-economy are recovering in 2003 and so are providing positive impulses for the Euro Area. For Germany this impetus from abroad will most likely remain the sole driving force for the revival of economic activity in 2003. Still this external stimulus will not be able to develop its full strength, as the newly restrictive fiscal policy will lower disposable income. At the earliest the economic upturn will gain strength in the summer months. This results in an initially increased burden on the labour market and only in 2004 will a decline in unemployment be observable, albeit at a slow pace. In economic terms, the recent interest rate cut by the ECB should only be able to show modest effects. Fiscal Policy in 2003 will be distinctly restrictive.
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Regional Differentiation in East Germany: The Economic Situation of East German Districts at the Border to Lower Saxony
Rupert Kawka, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
The article deals with the question whether the counties in Sachsen-Anhalt being located along the border to Niedersachsen benefit from the vicinity to an economically stronger state so that regional development is better there than in other parts of Sachsen-Anhalt. It is shown that despite certain weaknesses concerning input factors, the output indicators show better results than the state´s average. Furthermore, the article focusses on the strong East-West commuter flows and on the preference of companies from Niedersachsen to invest in this region.
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