Upswing Continues - European Debt Crisis still Unresolved: Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2011
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie,
2011
Abstract
In spring 2011 the world economy is in an upswing phase, especially due to the momentum in the emerging economies. Germany too is experiencing a strong upturn. The institutes expect that German GDP will increase this year by 2.8% and by 2.0% next year. For 2011 and 2012, an unemployment rate of 6.9% and 6.5%, respectively, is forecast. Growth forces will gradually shift towards domestic demand. Wages will increase in the wake of the upswing, and the inflation rate will be relatively high at 2.4% in 2011 and 2.0% in 2012. Government net borrowing will amount to 1.7% in 2011 and in 2012 will decline to 0.9%, in relation to nominal GDP. The greatest forecast risks are international. If a reduction in the oil supply were to come about because of increasing unrest in the Arab world or if the European debt and confidence crisis were to worsen, this would have a clear effect on the economy. German economic policy is well-advised to maintain its consolidation course and to work for amendments to the European Stability Mechanism.
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Exchange Rate Expectations and the Pricing of Chinese Cross-listed Stocks
Stefan Eichler
Journal of Banking and Finance,
No. 2,
2011
Abstract
I show that the price discounts of Chinese cross-listed stocks (American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and H-shares) to their underlying A-shares indicate the expected yuan/US dollar exchange rate. The forecasting models reveal that ADR and H-share discounts predict exchange rate changes more accurately than the random walk and forward exchange rates, particularly at long forecast horizons. Using panel estimations, I find that ADR and H-share investors form their exchange rate expectations according to standard exchange rate theories such as the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect, the risk of competitive devaluations, relative purchasing power parity, uncovered interest rate parity, and the risk of currency crisis.
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Currency Crisis Prediction Using ADR Market Data: An Options-based Approach
Stefan Eichler, Dominik Maltritz
International Journal of Forecasting,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
During capital control episodes, large price deviations between American Depositary Receipts (ADR) and their underlying stocks signal that a currency crisis is about to occur. We interpret this price spread as the price of a call option. Using option pricing theory we derive detailed information about both the probability of a currency crisis and the expected magnitude of devaluation. Analyzing daily ADR market data preceding the Venezuelan crisis (1996), our approach predicts crisis probabilities of almost 100% and forecasts the exchange rate after floating quite accurately. During the Argentine crisis (2002), the estimated exchange rates are similar to the actual ones.
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German Economy Recovers Surprisingly Quickly from Last Year’s Recession
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2010
Abstract
The German economy recovers surprisingly quickly from last year’s recession. For this year, we expect GDP to grow by 3.5%. Next year, when GDP growth should reach a rate of 2%, the general government deficit is likely to fall below the 3% mark of the Stability and Growth pact – if the government indeed realizes the stabilization program it decided on this summer. Unemployment will continue to decline.
We see three main causes for this favorable development: first, the German economy benefits strongly from the high growth dynamics in emerging markets, since German firms are well positioned for producing investment goods that are particularly sought-after in these countries. Second, growing demand for labor in Germany means that employment and labor income is on the rise. Partly, this is the reward for a long time of low wage rises that have made labor in Germany competitive again. Third, the expansive monetary policy in the euro area is particularly stimulating since here debt levels of private households and firms are moderate and therefore do not dampen the stimulating effects of low interest rates, as they do in many euro area partner countries with highly indebted private and public agents.
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Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
Bernd Aumann, Rolf Scheufele
Post-Communist Economies,
2010
Abstract
This article assesses whether the economy of East Germany is catching up with the West German region in terms of welfare. While the primary measure for convergence and catching up is per capita output, we also look at other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rates, wage rates and production levels in the manufacturing sector. In contrast to existing studies of convergence between regions of the reunified Germany, our approach is based purely upon the time series dimension and is thus directly focused on the catching up process in East Germany as a region. Our testing set-up includes standard ADF unit root tests as well as unit root tests that endogenously allow for a break in the deterministic component of the process. We find evidence of catching up for East Germany for most of the indicators. However, the convergence speed is slow, and thus it can be expected that the catching up process will take further decades until the regional gap is closed.
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Transmission of Nominal Exchange Rate Changes to Export Prices and Trade Flows and Implications for Exchange Rate Policy
Mathias Hoffmann, Oliver Holtemöller
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
2010
Abstract
We discuss how the welfare ranking of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model depends on the interplay between the degree of exchange rate pass-through and the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods. We identify combinations of these two parameters for which flexible and fixed exchange rates are superior with respect to welfare as measured by a representative household's utility level. We estimate the two parameters for six non-EMU European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and the UK) using a heterogeneous dynamic panel approach.
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A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
Sebastian Giesen, Oliver Holtemöller, Juliane Scharff, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model – the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) – is closely related to studies recently published by the International
Monetary Fund (global projection model). Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In this version we consider Germany and France, which represent together about 50 percent of Euro area GDP. The model allows for country specific heterogeneity in the sense that we capture different adjustment patterns to economic shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian techniques. Out-of-sample and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts are presented.
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Unternehmensnetzwerke in der Photovoltaik-Industrie – Starke Verbundenheit und hohe Kooperationsintensität
Christoph Hornych, Matthias Brachert
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
The Photovoltaic-(PV)-Industry is a comparatively new industrial sector which is affected by high level of uncertainty. This uncertainty is derived from different technology paths as same as uncertainty about the future market developments. Important instruments to come up with uncertainty are firm networks. Thereby the state of the knowledge about the degree of interconnectedness between the German PV-industry is poor. This article aims to close this gap by giving an overview about the integration of PV-enterprises in firm networks.
The empirical analysis of the network structure of the German PV-industry thereby confirms the expected high level of network relations. Almost nine out of ten firms cooperate with other PV-firms in Germany. Also, the intensity of cooperation turns out to be above the average compared to other industrial sectors. On average one PV-firm cooperates with 5.8 other PV-firms. This indicates possibilities for a better knowledge exchange in the sector. Overall the high cooperation intensity supports the assumption that PV-industry is able to benefit from the spatial concentration of the industry in the region.
Despite the dense network which has already emerged, the promotion of networks can still be an efficient paradigm to support innovativeness and growth in this sector. This is going to be even more successful if the results of the network analysis are integrated into the government supporting scheme.
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