The European Emissions Trading System: What Have We Learned so Far?
Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
The IWH occupies with the consequences of the emission trading for the effected companies. The first period of the European Emission Trading System was conceived as a learning phase during which two problems occurred: The first and most obvious one was the surplus of certificates. The incentives to invest in the mitigation of CO2 can therefore be considered to be low. The second problem resulted from the allocation which was entirely for free. While electricity customers had to bear the main financial burden, electricity producers profited as the certificate-prices were obviously added to the electricity-prices as opportunity costs. The analysis comes to the conclusion that it was right to shorten the amount of certificates on the EU-level for the second trade period and to establish the partly sales or auctioning of certificates in German legislation. Furthermore, the simplification of the allocation method in Germany can be considered to be a progress.
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Das bedingungslose Grundeinkommen und seine Finanzierung
Ingmar Kumpmann
cege-Report Februar 2008,
2008
Abstract
This is a reply to a contribution of Robert Schwager in the preceding cege-Report. The unconditional basic income is intended to reduce poverty. For its financing, some hitherto existing social benefits and tax privileges can be dropped. But the core of the financing problem is the effect of the basic income on the incentives in the economy.
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On the Economics of Ex-Post Transfers in a Federal State: A Mechanism Design Approach
Martin Altemeyer-Bartscher, T. Kuhn
WWDP, 95,
No. 95,
2008
Abstract
As a common feature in many federal states grants-in aid are payed to jurisdictions ex post, i.e. after local policy measures have chosen. We show that the central government cannot offer grants ex ante in a federal states with informational asymmetries as well as inter-temporal commitment problems. Local governments’ incentives to provide public goods are distorted if they rely on federal grants-in-aid offered ex post. Furthermore it becomes obvious that local governments are apt to substitute tax revenue for higher grants-in-aid if relevant local data are unobservable for the central government. To which extend ex post transfers mitigate local governments’ incentives crucially depends on the information structure predominant in the federation.
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Business cycle forecast 2008: German upswing takes a break
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Economic growth in the industrial countries will be much more muted in 2008 than in the past year. One cause is the prolonged oil price hike during 2007. The second and more important cause is the intensification of tensions on world financial markets. Due to problems in the financial sector, credit expansion will slow next year in the euro area as well as in the US. This will dampen demand in the real economy. A significant downswing in the industrial countries, however, is not the most likely scenario: in the US, expansive economic policy and a weak dollar that gives production in the US a competitive edge will prevent the economy from sliding into recession. In the euro area, high profitability of firms and structural improvements in the working of labour markets will help the economy cope with the stronger euro and with higher costs of external financing due to the turmoil in the financial sector. In Germany, the upswing has still not reached the demand of private households. The main reason is that real wages were stagnating in 2007 and will not rise by much in 2008, since inflation has accelerated considerably at the end of last year. In addition, weaker dynamics of external demand will dampen export growth. This and the end of tax incentives for investment at the end of 2007 will dampen investment activity. All in all, the economy will slow down in the first half of 2008. However, chances are good that the upswing will only have taken a break: when the dampening external shocks have ceased, the driving powers of the upswing will prevail; dynamic employment growth is a reflection of the strong confidence of firms. A major risk for employment and for the German economy in general is, however, the possibility that the policy concerning the labour markets changes course; bad omens are the recent the introduction of minimum wages for postal services and the announced extension of unemployment benefits for persons older than 50.
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Das Grundeinkommen - Potenziale und Grenzen eines Reformvorschlags
Ingmar Kumpmann
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 9,
2006
Abstract
Currently the idea of introducing a Basic Income is politically debated. A Basic Income is “an income paid by a political community to all its members, without means test or consideration” (Vanderborght/Van Parijs). It would replace the existing tax and welfare schemes which guarantee the subsistence levels for all individuals. The Basic Income would prevent poverty, simplify the tax and social security system and disburden labour from the costs of social security. It would put an end to the highly problematic governmental controls concerning the ability and willingness of the unemployed to work. The main challenges of the proposal are the difficulty of funding and the danger of reduced labour incentives, problems which limit the possibility for implementing the model.
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Determinants of employment - the macroeconomic view
Christian Dreger, Heinz P. Galler, Ulrich (eds) Walwai
Schriften des IWH,
No. 22,
2005
Abstract
The weak performance of the German labour market over the past years has led to a significant unemployment problem. Currently, on average 4.5 mio. people are without a job contract, and a large part of them are long-term unemployed. A longer period of unemployment reduces their employability and aggravates the problem of social exclusion.
The factors driving the evolution of employment have been recently discussed on the workshop Determinanten der Beschäftigung – die makroökonomische Sicht organized jointly by the IAB, Nuremberg, and the IWH, Halle. The present volume contains the papers and proceedings to the policy oriented workshop held in November 2004, 15-16th. The main focus of the contributions is twofold. First, macroeconomic conditions to stimulate output and employment are considered. Second, the impacts of the increasing tax wedge between labour costs and the take home pay are emphasized. In particular, the role of the contributions to the social security system is investigated.
In his introductory address, Ulrich Walwei (IAB) links the unemployment experience to the modest path of economic growth in Germany. In addition, the low employment intensity of GDP growth and the temporary standstill of the convergence process of the East German economy have contributed to the weak labour market performance. In his analysis, Gebhard Flaig (ifo Institute, München) stresses the importance of relative factor price developments. A higher rate of wage growth leads to a decrease of the employment intensity of production, and correspondingly to an increase of the threshold of employment. Christian Dreger (IWH) discusses the relevance of labour market institutions like employment protection legislation and the structure of the wage bargaining process on the labour market outcome. Compared to the current setting, policies should try to introduce more flexibility in labour markets to improve the employment record. The impact of interest rate shocks on production is examined by the paper of Boris Hofmann (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt). According to the empirical evidence, monetary policy cannot explain the modest economic performance in Germany. György Barabas and Roland Döhrn (RWI Essen) have simulated the effects of a world trade shock on output and employment. The relationships have been fairly stable over the past years, even in light of the increasing globalization. Income and employment effects of the German tax reform in 2000 are discussed by Peter Haan and Viktor Steiner (DIW Berlin). On the base of a microsimulation model, household gains are determined. Also, a positive relationship between wages and labour supply can be established. Michael Feil und Gerd Zika (IAB) have examined the employment effects of a reduction of the contribution rates to the social security system. To obtain robust results, the analysis is done under alternative financing scenarios and with different macroeconometric models. The impacts of allowances of social security contributions on the incentives to work are discussed by Wolfgang Meister and Wolfgang Ochel (ifo München). According to their study, willingness to work is expected to increase especially at the lower end of the income distribution. The implied loss of contributions could be financed by higher taxes.
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The Impact of Institutions on the Employment Performance in European Labour Markets
Herbert S. Buscher, Christian Dreger, Raúl Ramos, Jordi Surinach
Discussion Paper No. 1732,
2005
Abstract
The paper investigates the role of institutions for labor market performance across European countries. As participation rates have been rather stable over the past, the unemployment problem is mainly caused by shortages in labor demand. Labor demand is expressed by its structural parameters, such as the elasticities of employment to output and factor prices. Institutional variables include employment protection legislation, the structure of wage bargaining, measures describing the tax and transfer system and active labor market policies. As cointegration between employment, output and factor prices is detected, labor demand equations are fitted in levels by efficient estimation techniques. Then, labor demand elasticities are explained by institutions using panel fixed effects regressions. The results suggest that higher flexibility and incentives of households to work appear to be appropriate strategies to improve the employment record. The employment response to economic conditions is stronger in a more deregulated environment, and the absorption of shocks can be relieved.
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Non-market Allocation in Transport: A Reassessment of its Justification and the Challenge of Institutional Transition
Ulrich Blum
50 Years of Transport Research: Experiences Gained and Major Challenges Ahead,
2005
Abstract
Economic theory knows two systems of coordination: through public choice or through the market principle. If the market is chosen, then it may either be regulated, or it may be fully competitive (or be in between these two extremes). This paper first inquires into the reasons for regulation, it analyses the reasons for the important role of government in the transportation sector, especially in the procurement of infrastructure. Historical reasons are seen as important reasons for bureaucratic objections to deregulation. Fundamental economic concepts are forwarded that suggest market failure and justify a regulatory environment. The reasons for regulation cited above, however, may be challenged; we forward theoretical concepts from industrial organization theory and from institutional economics which suggest that competition is even possible on the level of infrastructure. The transition from a strongly regulated to a competitive environment poses problems that have given lieu to numerous failures in privatization and deregulation. Structural inertia plays an important role, and the incentive-compatible management of infrastructure is seen as the key element of any liberal transportation policy. It requires that the setting of rules on the meta level satisfies both local and global efficiency ends. We conclude that, in market economies, competition and regulation should not be substitutes but complements. General rules, an "ethic of competition" have to be set that guarantee a level playing field to agents; it is complimented by institutions that provide arbitration in case of misconduct.
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Housing Vacancies in East German Cities: A Problem not only for Housing Policy
Peter Franz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2001
Abstract
In numerous East German cities extreme imbalances in the housing
market have developed with the consequence of extensive housing vacancies. Primarily inner city housing units constructed in the late 19th and early 20th century and housing units constructed within the period of the socialist regime are concerned. The causes for these imbalances can be found in decisions of socialist urban planning, in demographic
factors, in oversized federal promotion of new housing construction after the German unification, and in income increases of private households. The commission “Structural Change in the Housing Economy of the New Länder“, installed by the federal government, has examined this problem and submitted preliminary political recommendations on the federal level in order to reduce the housing market imbalances. The commission recommends federal subsidies for tearing off vacant housing units within a period of ten years. A measure like this raises the question how the risk can be handled that too many flats are torn down. In addition, the commission recommends to double the subsidies for households acquiring already existing flats for own use and to halve the subsidies for households investing in newly built owner-occupied housing in East Germany. These incentives to acquire existing housing units might prove too weak because of the strong preferences of East German households to live in single-family houses. Measures on the federal level can support but cannot replace necessary concrete planning and solution strategies in the vacancy-plagued cities “in situ“.
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