Cost of Transaction and the Search for Skilled Workers: A Theoretical Explanation Based on the Theory of Institutions
Herbert S. Buscher, R. Ohliger, Andreas Siegert
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2013
Abstract
Germany will have an increasing need of qualified staff across regions and economical sectors. Not only does this concern highly qualified of so-called MINT-professions (mathematics, IT, natural sciences and technology), but expands to qualified laborers of the health business and the arts and crafts sector. This demand cannot be met through the employment of jobless people from within the country, as the demographic change of a shrinking and ageing population works against it. Societal responsibility thus demands to attract qualified laborers as immigrants. In order to improve Germany’s image as a country of immigration for qualified staff, so-called soft-criteria should be strengthened aside hard facts, like income or employment opportunities. Such a policy actively needs to communicate to migrants that they and their family members are welcome to stay for good. Such an approach has recently been discussed as “Willkommenskultur” (“culture of welcoming”). It signals a change of paradigm in German immigration policy. A policy of „Willkommenskultur“ does not yet exist in Germany, at least it has not yet reached a satisfying level to be recognized and accepted as such by potential immigrants. Based on the theoretical conception of the Institutional Economy, approaches of a political change and its implementation are outlined. Those changes would imply governmental, societal and micro-economical shifts and changes.
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Survival of Spinoffs and Other Startups: First Evidence for the Private Sector in Germany, 1976-2008
Daniel Fackler, Claus Schnabel
Abstract
Using a 50 percent sample of all establishments in the German private sector, we report that spinoffs are larger and initially employ more skilled and more experienced workers than other startups. Controlling for these and other differences, we find that spinoffs are less likely to exit than other startups. We show that in West and East Germany and in all sectors investigated pulled spinoffs (where the parent company continues after they are founded) generally have the lowest exit hazards, followed by pushed spinoffs (where the parent company stops operations). The difference between both types of spinoffs is particularly pronounced in the first three years. Contrary to expectations, intra-industry spinoffs are not found to have lower exit hazards in our sample.
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Increasing Pressure on East German Labor Market for Skilled Labor
Herbert S. Buscher
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2012
Abstract
After a short break, the discussion of a possible labor market shortage for skilled and high skilled workers revived in the public debate. The paper evaluates the results of the latest IAB establishment survey for East German industrial firms with respect to planned employment within the next two years and the associated problems expected by the firms. The analysis distinguishes between the location of the firm, the size of the firms, measured by the number of employees, as well as with respect to the branch of industry the firm belongs to.. The results can be interpreted in a sense that actually there is no severe shortage of skilled labor at a large scale, but in the near future it will become more difficult for firms to find qualified employees.
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Seniorität, spezifisches Kapital und Beschäftigungsmobilität - Warum Ältere seltener wechseln
Lutz Schneider
T. Salzmann, V. Skirbekk, M. Weiberg (Hrsg.), Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels,
2010
Abstract
The analysis focuses on the relationship of ageing and labour mobility. We answer the questions if i) mobility is wage driven, if ii) older workers are still able to generate wage increases by job switching and if iii) lacking wage incentives can explain the existing mobility gap of older workers. The empirical analysis is limited to labour mobility in terms of changing job or occupation. We estimate a multi equation model known as switching regression model with endogenous switching. The data stem from the IAB employment sample. We firstly show that expected wage increases encourage job switching. Secondly, we find evidence for lower expected wage increases due to job changes for older workers. Thirdly we find that the mobility gap of older workers is only partly attributable to reduced wage incentives of a job switch.
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Immigration to East Germany: Last chance 2011
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
Due to population ageing and shrinking Germany – particularly East Germany – experiences a demographic constellation causing remarkable economic and social problems. One option to cope with the demography based challenges is immigration. In a historical part the article firstly illustrates the history of immigration in Germany during the 20th century and concludes that substantial immigration initially occurred in the 1950th in the Western part of Germany when the so called “Gastarbeiter” were attracted to the West German labour market. Regions in East Germany, instead, show a rather low share of immigrants – a result of the GDR immigration policy that permitted only a low level of temporary migration.
However, prospects of success to stimulate immigration to East Germany seem to be rather limited. Firstly, since 2000 Germany as a whole faces reducing immigration numbers. Secondly, the low immigration experience and density of foreigners’ networks could torpedo existing immigration potentials. The sole opportunity for improving the migration balance seems to be the immigration from Central Eastern European regions. Spatial proximity might compensate for lacking migration incentives and initiate substantial migration flows towards East Germany. Yet, one should not have to high expectation regarding the dimension of immi-gration from Central Eastern Europe. Large parts of the migratory population already moved to other EU member states that implemented the Freedom of Movement for Workers immediately after 2004. Therefore, it seems to be crucial to stay away from every supplementary regulation that might discourage potential labour market migrants from Central East Europe after May 2011.
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Will there be a shortage of skilled labor? An East German perspective to 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
Applied Economics Quarterly Supplement,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population aging and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period from 2009 to 2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In a second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plans to expand further education efforts and to hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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Entwicklung des Fachkräftebedarfs in Thüringen bis 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Christian Schmeißer, Dirk Trocka, Marco Sunder
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 2,
2009
Abstract
On behalf of the Thuringian Ministry of Economics, Technology, and Labor, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) has conducted a survey of current labor market conditions in Thuringia. We forecast changes in labor demand within occupation groups in the period 2009-2015. According to our predictions, 80 000 additional workers are required both to replace older workers reaching retirement age and to accommodate industrial growth resulting from structural change. While the size of the working-age population will be large enough to meet this demand, there is a risk of occupational mismatch and lack of labor market integration of certain groups. In this context we devise policy recommendations. In addition, we present results of a survey of approximately 1 000 Thuringian companies. Interviews were conducted by IWH in the summer of 2008 and cover topics on previous and future staffing policy. The questionnaire focuses on companies’ strategies to meet their demand for skilled labor and their evaluation of potential measures in the fields of education, labor market, and economic policy.
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The Requirement of Qualified Workers in Thuringia until 2015: Forecast and Policy Recommendations
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Christian Schmeißer, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2009
Abstract
We forecast the number of qualified workers required in the German federal state Thuringia until 2015 on the basis of the manpower requirement approach. Disaggregated by types of qualification, this method distinguishes between two sources of recruitment requirements: replacement demand for old workers and expansion demand to reflect structural changes of industry sectors and productivity growth. Both components are calculated from register data on employment covered by social security. Relative to current employment, recruitment requirements vary across occupations. A comparison of recruitment requirements for medium-skilled workers with the structure of vocational training reveals potential mismatch between demand and supply of medium-skilled labor in the near future if the composition of apprenticeship programs remains unchanged. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009-2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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Low Skill but High Volatility?
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2665,
2009
Abstract
Globalization may impose a double-burden on low-skilled workers. On the one hand, the relative supply of low-skilled labor increases. This suppresses wages of low-skilled workers and/or increases their unemployment rates. On the other hand, low-skilled workers typically face more limited access to financial markets than high-skilled workers. This limits their ability to smooth shocks to income intertemporally and to share risks across borders. Using cross-country, industry-level data for the years 1970 - 2004, we document how the volatility of hours worked and of wages of workers at different skill levels has changed over time. We develop a stylized theoretical model that is consistent with the empirical evidence, and we test the predictions of the model. Our results show that greater financial globalization and development increases the volatility of employment, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers. A higher share of low-skilled employment has a dampening impact.
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