Arbeitskosteneffekte des Vorleistungsbezugs der Industrie an Dienstleistungen in Deutschland im Vergleich mit Frankreich und den Niederlanden – Eine Untersuchung mit der Input-Output-Methode. Gutachten im Auftrag des Instituts für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
IMK Studies Nr. 4/2010,
2010
Abstract
As part of the outsourcing, industrial enterprises receive services in the production of their products which they used to provide on their own. As a result of the wage differentials between industry and service sector there is a shift in the burden labour costs have on industrial products. The study addresses the question of how significant this effect is. For this purpose the open static input-output model is used to analyse the degree of integration of the industry with its suppliers, the employment intensity of production and the labour cost differentials between the areas of production in Germany and in comparison with France and the Netherlands. The result of the labour cost analysis of industrial production shows - from a macroeconomic point of view - that the industry products have a smaller burden due to labour costs in Germany, France and the Netherlands, than the sectoral levels in the industry indicate. The difference in Germany is quantitative particularly strong pronounced. This saving in wage costs has increased somewhat after 2000. Crucial is that this discharge effect is achieved on the immediate wholesale inputs, that means in the first integration stage of industrial production.
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Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of common data problems when identifying structural breaks in small samples. Most notably, we survey small sample properties of the most commonly applied endogenous break tests developed by Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975) and Zeileis (2004), Nyblom (1989) and Hansen (1992), and Andrews, Lee, and Ploberger (1996). Power and size properties are derived using Monte Carlo simulations. Results emphasize that mostly the CUSUM type tests are affected by the presence of heteroscedasticity, whereas the individual parameter Nyblom test and AvgLM test are proved to be highly robust. However, each test is significantly affected by leptokurtosis. Contrarily to other tests, where skewness is far more problematic than kurtosis, it has no additional effect for any of the endogenous break tests we analyze. Concerning overall robustness the Nyblom test performs best, while being almost on par to more recently developed tests in terms of power.
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Catching the Flu from the United States
Stéphane Dées, Filippo di Mauro, Marco Lombardi
Palgrave Macmillan,
July
2010
Abstract
Looking at historical cross-country interactions, this book examines the role of the US in the world economy. Illustrating that US shocks tend to have a global nature and that Monetary Union only partially shelters the Euro area from its external environment, the US should fully assume its responsibility, minimizing shock transmission.
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The Emergence of Wage Coordination in the Central Western European Metal Sector and its Relationship to European Economic Policy
Vera Glassner, Toralf Pusch
Abstract
In the European Monetary Union the transnational coordination of collective wage bargaining has acquired increased importance on the trade union agenda. The metal sector has been at the forefront of these developments. This paper addresses the issue of crossborder coordination of wage setting in the metal sector in the central western European region, that is, in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, where coordination practices have become firmly established in comparison to other sectors. When testing the interaction of wage developments in the metal sector of these three countries, relevant macroeconomic (inflation and labour productivity) and sector-related variables (employment, export-dependence) are considered with reference to the wage policy guidelines of the European Commission and the European Metalworkers’ Federation. Empirical evidence can be found for a wage coordination effect in the form of increasing compliance with the wage policy guidelines of the European Metalworkers’ Federation. The evidence for compliance with the stability-oriented wage guideline of the European Commission is weaker.
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Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
Bernd Aumann, Rolf Scheufele
Post-Communist Economies,
2010
Abstract
This article assesses whether the economy of East Germany is catching up with the West German region in terms of welfare. While the primary measure for convergence and catching up is per capita output, we also look at other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rates, wage rates and production levels in the manufacturing sector. In contrast to existing studies of convergence between regions of the reunified Germany, our approach is based purely upon the time series dimension and is thus directly focused on the catching up process in East Germany as a region. Our testing set-up includes standard ADF unit root tests as well as unit root tests that endogenously allow for a break in the deterministic component of the process. We find evidence of catching up for East Germany for most of the indicators. However, the convergence speed is slow, and thus it can be expected that the catching up process will take further decades until the regional gap is closed.
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Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
1. Sonderausgabe
2010
Abstract
Im Frühjahr 2010 schreitet die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft voran, die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise der Jahre 2008 und 2009 wird allmählich überwunden. Allerdings ist das Tempo der Expansion in den einzelnen Weltregionen sehr unterschiedlich. In einigen Schwellenländern, vor allem in Asien, ist es ausgesprochen hoch, und vereinzelt besteht sogar die Gefahr einer konjunkturellen Überhitzung. Dagegen ist in den Industrieländern die Auslastung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kapazitäten weiterhin gering. Hier hat sich die Erholung noch nicht gefestigt, sondern wird nach wie vor maßgeblich von der expansiven Wirtschaftspolitik getragen. Von der verhältnismäßig frühen und kräftigen Erholung von Produktion und Nachfrage in den asiatischen Schwellenländern gingen im Jahr 2009 spürbare Impulse auf die Industrieländer aus, deren reale Außenbeiträge auch deshalb merklich stiegen. Zwar war es auch in den Schwellenländern im Herbst 2008 zu einem Einbruch der Produktion gekommen, der teilweise sogar ausgesprochen heftig ausfiel. Doch zeigt sich nun, dass die Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise den mittelfristigen Wachstumspfad aufgrund zumeist solider Finanzsektoren und eines allgemein günstigen makroökonomischen Umfeldes in den Schwellenländern insgesamt offenbar nur wenig verändert haben. Insofern kann durchaus von einer Abkopplung wichtiger Schwellenländer von der Entwicklung in den Industrieländern gesprochen werden.
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International Bank Portfolios: Short- and Long-Run Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions
S. Blank, Claudia M. Buch
Review of International Economics,
No. 2,
2010
Abstract
International bank portfolios constitute a large component of international country portfolios. Yet, banks’ response to international macroeconomic conditions remains largely unexplored.We use a novel dataset on banks’ international portfolios to answer three questions. First, what are the long-run determinants of banks’ international portfolios? Second, how do banks’ international portfolios adjust to short-run macroeconomic developments? Third, does the speed of adjustment change with the degree of financial integration?We find that, in the long-run, market size has a positive impact on foreign assets and liabilities. An increase in the interest differential between the home and the foreign economy lowers foreign assets and increases foreign liabilities. Foreign trade has a positive impact on international bank portfolios, which is independent from the effect of other macroeconomic variables. Short-run dynamics show heterogeneity across countries, but these dynamics can partly be explained with gravity-type variables.
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