Spatial Distribution of East German Innovative Competencies: Significant Increase in the Southwestern Hinterland of Berlin and in the Centres of Saxony and Thuringia
Peter Franz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2007
Abstract
Patent applications constitute an essential indicator for the extent of innovative activities in an economy or region. Due to the fact that innovative activities are in general spatially concentrated, policy makers perceive in this information starting points for a growth-oriented regional policy. Against this background, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) in 2004 had examined the spatial distribution of industries, firm networks and innovative competencies in the context of an area-wide study for East Germany. Newly available data for the patent statistics allow for an updating of these results regarding the innovative competencies for the time period from 2000 to 2005. In comparison to the time period between 1995 and 2000, an increase in innovative competencies becomes evident. This growth takes place almost exclusively in regions where innovative competencies are already domiciled. All in all, the growth dynamics of East Germany with regard to patent applications is slightly behind the West German one. The distribution of technological fields, to which the applied patents refer to, remained largely constant during the two observation periods. In the area of bio-technology, electrical engineering and of health care the standing of East Germany has further improved. With regard to political implications, the data should not be used for imposing technology specific support programs. Instead a tax relief for R&D independent of the used technologies seems to be more adequate.
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Spillover Effects of Spatial Growth Poles - a Reconciliation of Conflicting Policy Targets?
Alexander Kubis, Mirko Titze, Joachim Ragnitz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
Regional economic policy faces the challenge of two competing policy goals - reducing regional economic disparities vs. promoting economic growth. The allocation of public funds has to weigh these goals particularly under the restriction of scarce financial re- sources. If, however, some region turns out to be a regional growth pole with positive spillovers to its disadvantaged periphery, regional policies could be designed to recon- cile the conflicting targets. In this case, peripheral regions could indirectly participate in the economic development of their growing cores. We start our investigation by defining and identifying such growth poles among German regions on the NUTS 3 administrative level based on spatial and sectoral effects. Using cluster analysis, we determine significant characteristics for the general identification of growth poles. Patterns in the sectoral change are identified by means of the change in the employment. Finally, we analyze whether and to what extent these growth poles ex- ert spatial spillover effects on neighbouring regions and thus mitigate contradictory in- terests in regional public policy. For this purpose, we apply a Spatial-Cross-Regressive- Model (SCR-Model) including the change in the secondary sector which allows to con- sider functional economic relations on the administrative level chosen (NUTS 3).
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East German Economy: Demand Push Stronger than Structural Deficiencies
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2007
Abstract
In 2006, growth of production was surprisingly strong in Eastern Germany. The structural deficiencies there would have suggested a slower pace. In particular, linkages with national and international business cycles have been underestimated. To a large part, the reason why output grew by 3 per cent did not come from Eastern Germany itself, but from the Old Länder and from abroad. In the New Länder, the strong upward swing in investment activity stimulated the economy. However, owing to a small increase in total income of private households, their purchasing power lagged behind.
The improved ability of East German firms to absorb cyclical impulses from exports and from Germany’s general investment activity proved to be a crucial factor. In particular, the endowment of workplaces with modern production facilities as well as the continued reduction in the disadvantages with respect to cost-competitiveness in the tradable goods sector were beneficial. The labour cost advantage compared to West German competitors increased further while the disadvantage compared to those from Central and Eastern Europe decreased.
Benefiting from these factors, economic activity in Eastern Germany will grow faster than in the Old Länder as long as the upswing in Germany and abroad remains strong. In 2007 and 2008, investments – especially in equipment – and exports will be the driving forces again. For exports, the strongly expanding markets in Central and Eastern Europe as well as in Russia will gain in importance. As income and employment prospects improve, private consumption will support the growth in production. Registered unemployment should decrease below the 1-million threshold.
Manufacturing will remain the primary force of the upswing; its advantages in production costs will not vanish as long as, even in presence of scarcity of skilled labour, salaries and wages do not increase more than in Western Germany. In the wake of robust economic growth, the New Länder will make further progress in catching up with respect to production and income.
Companies will regain support from the banking industry. Yet, investment capital still stems from public funding programmes to a non-negligible extent. In the medium run, access to credit will ease as a result of further improvements in the firms’ net worth position. However, dependency on internal funds remains high and exposes companies to comparatively strong cyclical risks. In an economic downturn, the structural deficiencies of the East German economy will impair economic expansion.
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Wertschöpfungsketten Ost: Motoren für nachhaltige kommunale Entwicklung
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Forum Neue Länder,
No. 6,
2007
Abstract
The article is discussing the impacts of regional and local value-added-chains on economic growth, with a special regard to those value-added-chains which include headquarters of private firms. In addition, the article raises the questions whether there should be public support for regional and local value-added-chains, and whether local public enterprises should be used as instruments for such a support.
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Long-Term Growth Projections for Eastern Germany
Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2007
Abstract
Recent research comes to the conclusion that the eastern part of Germany not only heavily de-pends on its western counterpart, but that it essentially is dying a slow death. Arguments for this point of view reach from deindustrialisation and the lack of Headquarters of national and international Corporations to the rapidly aging society.
The study at hand assumes that economic development in a specific region does not only de-pend on the quantity and quality of its factors of production, but also on the overall conditions in the national economy a region is connected to. The analysis uses a framework in which the regional production factors are limited to the population and its development. Just as produc-tion, output is restricted to the value added of the region. Since data is only available for the ten years between 1995 - 2005, a panel econometric approach was chosen. For this purpose, the 97 spatial planning regions of Germany (Raumordnungsregionen) were divided into four groups according to their economic growth; slightly surprising, nine regions from Central Germany and Brandenburg fall into the top two groups.
The estimation results show that both economic growth in Germany as a whole as well as increases in the regional number of inhabitants positively influence regional value added. Fur-thermore, the impact of national growth is largest in the group with the highest regional value added and lowest in the group with the smallest regional output. On the other hand, lagged values of regional growth have the greatest impact in the low growth group and the smallest impact in the high growth group.
The main result of the study is that regional economic growth will not necessarily stop when the population is shrinking. After 2020, though, the growth rates of the gross domestic prod-uct will decrease. At the same time, the growth disparities between the different regions will not decline, a process aided by the demographic developments in Germany.
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Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2007
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
1. Sonderausgabe
2007
Abstract
In spring 2007, the global economy remains robust. While growth rates have declined slightly from last year, as business activity in the US has slowed, they continue to reflect an upswing, which by now has held on for a notably long time. Especially the developing and emerging countries have been raising output very fast, due in part to their increasing role in the international division of labour. In the industrialised economies, on the other hand, the current recovery has not been remarkably strong. So far the slowdown in the US economy has not spilled over to other regions and the Euro Area as well as Japan continue to expand at a high pace. Here expansive monetary policy provided a notable support. Buoyant financial markets stimulated the world economy additionally, even though market volatility has increased since the end of February. The US central bank’s current concern with inflationary risks keeps it from loosening its slightly restrictive monetary policy. It will be the second half of the year – when price pressures have eased – until the Fed makes its first rate cut. The ECB, on the other hand, has been preparing financial markets for a further increase in interest rates by summer. In 2007 and 2008 the growth disparities in the industrialised countries will diminish. On one hand, the upswing in the Euro Area will start to moderate, as fiscal policy hampers business activity and monetary policy will not stimulate anymore. On the other hand, the US economy will slowly gain pace from summer onwards; the emerging markets will continue to develop in a highly dynamic fashion. World-GDP in this and next year will likely rise by about 3 ¼ % in 2007, which is still faster than in the average of the last ten years. World trade will rise by 7 ½ % in the coming two years. An oil price of 65 US-Dollar and an exchange rate between the Euro and the US-Dollar of 1.32 were assumed for both years 2007 and 2008. The real estate market in the USA continues to be a risk for...
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Ageing in East Germany: Remarkable reduction of entrepreneurship
Lutz Schneider, Stefan Eichler
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2007
Abstract
Population shrinking and ageing are obvious trends in many German regions, but in the Eastern states they reach an unique level. An often ignored economic implication of these demographic deve-lopments is the reduction of the entrepreneurial potential. Shirking, on the one hand, diminishes the quantity of potential entrepreneurs, on the other hand these effects are strengthened by ageing trends, since people usually decide in younger years to found an enterprise. The analysis tries to quantify the impact of demographic change on entrepreneurship activities in east Germany until 2020. At the first stage on the basis of the Mikrozensus survey age specific shares of new entrepreneurs are calculated. In order to obtain a status-quo-forecast of new entrepreneurs at the second stage these quotas are combined with the population projections for the East Germany. As expected the propensity to set up a new business is highest for persons at the age form 25 to 39 years. Due to the strong reduction of this age group the number of new firm foundations will fall by approximately 25% until 2020.Whereas the decline in Berlin will be relatively small (14%), Brandenburg has to bear an alarming reduction of 32%.In contrast the West German states show only a reduction of 6% during the same period, which emphasizes the extraordinary dimension of demographic change in East Germany.
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What Determines the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems?
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Jena Economic Research Papers, Nr. 2007-006,
No. 6,
2007
Abstract
We assess the efficiency of regional innovation systems (RIS) in Germany by means of a knowledge production function. This function relates private sector research and development (R&D) activity in a region to the number of inventions that have been registered by residents of that region. Different measures and estimation approaches lead to rather similar assessments. We find that both spillovers within the private sector as well as from universities and other public research institutions have a positive effect on the efficiency of private sector R&D in the respective region. It is not the mere presence and size of public research institutions, but rather the intensity of interactions between private and public sector R&D that leads to high RIS efficiency. We find that relationship between the diversity of a regions’ industry structure and the efficiency of its innovation system is inversely u-shaped. Regions dominated by large establishments tend to be less efficient than regions with a lower average establishment size.
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Economic 'Clusters' in East Germany: Evidence on the Location and the Characteristics of Spatially Concentrated Industries
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Peter Franz, Gerhard Heimpold
Post-Communist Economies,
No. 1,
2007
Abstract
The contribution provides empirical findings, which regions in East Germany show spatially concentrated industries possessing ”cluster” qualities. The latter are regarded as being existent if spatially concentrated industries coincide with networking activities and innovative competences. The findings reveal that spatially concentrated industries possessing the qualities sketched are relatively rare, and they are, if existent, primarily located in the East German agglomerated spaces. This in mind, the article draws the conclusion, that spreading regional policy schemes by the “watering can principle” should be avoided. Instead, the resources should be concentrated on locations where spatially concentrated industries are existent. Networks and innovative competences should be strengthened there.
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Population ageing and new entrepreneurship activities in East Germany
Stefan Eichler, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaftspolitik und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung: Analysen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung ostdeutscher Regionen,
2007
Abstract
Population shrinking and ageing are obvious trends in many German regions, but in the Eastern states they reach an unique level. An often ignored economic implication of these demographic developments is the reduction of the entrepreneurial potential. Shirking, on the one hand, diminishes the quantity of potential entrepreneurs, on the other hand these effects are strengthened by ageing trends, since people usually decide in younger years to found an enterprise. The analysis tries to quantify the impact of demographic change on entrepreneurship activities in east Germany until 2020.
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