The Olympic Games raise hopes for regional development policy: Economic effects of the infrastructure investments planned for the Olympic Games in 2012 in Leipzig
Peter Franz, Franz Kronthaler
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2003
Abstract
Together with the cities of Chemnitz, Dresden, Halle and Riesa the East German city of Leipzig has applied as venue for the Olympic Games 2012. With its application Leipzig competed with four economically by far stronger West German cities (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Hamburg). On April 12, 2003 the National Olympic Committee had to elect the national candidate for 2012 out of this bundle of five applying cities and nominated Leipzig. With the organization of this big event the city of Leipzig and its partner cities expect a strong impulse for regional development. This study tries to estimate the potential economic effects of the planned investment with regard to infrastructure. Important results: Regarding directly the job effects connected with the investment and development of the infrastructure about 3,500 additional jobs are to be expected for a period of ten years. The infrastructure investment planned so far for the Olympiad will contribute only partially to eliminate important infrastructural bottlenecks in the region. Nevertheless the planned infrastructure facilities would have the effect that the new ‘olympia region Leipzig’ would remain attractive also after 2012 as venue for large sport events.
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Economic outlook for the Euro area 2003
Christian Dreger, Axel Lindner, Udo Ludwig, Klaus Weyerstraß
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2003
Abstract
This article reports the spring forecast of the economic development in the Eurozone, which was carried out within the European Forecasting Network. A modest rise in GDP growth from 1.2% in 2003 up to 2.1% in 2004 is expected. The current weakness in the growth experience is caused by structural factors to a large extent. In particular, labor markets are not flexible enough in most countries.
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On the presence of important growth factors in German regions along the border with Poland
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2003
Abstract
The German regions bordering on Poland are regarded as economically weak. Prior to the EU enlargement there was great uncertainty about the economic prospects of these regions. Against this background this contribution tries to shed some light on this debate about the future of the border regions. The empirical research shows two different findings: Firstly, the border space is not a homogeneous one. Rather, certain sub-regions show strengths – for instance the university towns in terms of the availability of human capital and of service industries. Other districts are remarkable for their great share of employees in the manufacturing sector as well as for their exceptionally high industrial investment. Secondly, the border regions show an endowment with essential growth determinants which is often below East Germany as a whole. But this is the case in many other East German regions too. The East-West disparities turn out to be much more serious than the intra-East German disparities.
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EU Eastern Enlargement and Structural Change: Specialization Patterns in Accession Countries and Economic Dynamics in the Single Market
Albrecht Kauffmann, P. J. J. Welfens, A. Jungmittag, C. Schumann
Diskussionsbeiträge des Europäischen Instituts für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW), Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Nr. 106,
No. 106,
2003
Abstract
This paper analyses key issues of structural change and specialization patterns in the economies of an enlarged European Union. In all transition countries we observe a shift from the agricultural and industrial sector towards the service sector in terms of employment and productivity; however, in some countries a reindustrialisation drives is observed in a late transition stage. While some countries namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Estonia and Slovenia, have improved their productivity especially in medium-technology-intensive industries and may advance on the technological ladder, others remain unchanged and seem to get locked in labour-intensive industrial sectors. In the context of EU-enlargement, we expect trade creation – going along with a rise of intra-industry trade – and higher FDI-activities. Countries will have to adjust along the logic of comparative advantage, however, technological upgrading and human capital formation are fields in which government can stimulate the direction of comparative advantage. According to the Gerschenkron-hypothesis the accession countries have an “advantage of backwardness. Since accession countries have a low R&D-GDP ratio in the early transition stage rising government expenditures on research and development plus higher education is crucial. We expect the EU-15 countries in general to benefit from enlargement but gains will be asymmetric across countries: economic geography matters. Austria, Germany, the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Italy and France are likely to profit more than the other members of EU-15. Germany and Austria additionally play a particularly crucial role as origins of FDI. Future research should focus on the speed and the scope of structural adjustment.
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Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2003
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2003
Abstract
The global economy is in the midst of a phase of weakness. In the course of next year, at the earliest, GDP will in many regions expand a little faster than potential output. The German economy, even, remains in a phase of prolonged weakness. In the second half of this year an economic recovery is expected to start here. However, it will proceed only slowly. Aggregate capacity utilisation will continue to decline, and the state of the labour market will deteriorate further. Although the recovery will firm next year and domestic demand will rise slightly, economic growth in Germany will continue to lack dynamism.
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Empirical methods for analysising the risks of financial crises
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 3,
2003
Abstract
he vulnerability against financial crises of EU candidate countries and other Central and East European countries is on the agenda of the Institute for Economic Research Halle. Research concentrates on the developing of effective early warning indicators and includes a strong orientation on quantitative methods. This volume presents selected methods for the analyse of financial fragility. The finding complete the signals approach, which is used by the IWH for routine checks of the risk potential of EU candidate an other countries of the region. The four studies presented here were written by the scientific staff of the IWH and by guest researchers. Their objective is to deepen insights into selected problems of financial fragility by using alternative methods.
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Regional economic effects of hosting the Olympic Games 2012 in Leipzig and its partner towns - An analysis of infrastructure investments
Peter Franz, Franz Kronthaler
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
Together with the cities of Chemnitz, Dresden, Halle and Riesa the East German city of Leipzig has applied as venue for the Olympic Games 2012. With its application Leipzig competed with four economically by far stronger West German cities (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Hamburg). On April 12, 2003 the National Olympic Committee had to elect the national candidate for 2012 out of this bundle of five applying cities and nominated Leipzig. With the organization of this big event the city of Leipzig and its partner cities expect a strong impulse for regional development. This study tries to estimate the potential economic effects of the planned investment with regard to infrastructure. Important results: Regarding directly the job effects connected with the investment and development of the infrastructure about 3,500 additional jobs are to be expected for a period of ten years. The infrastructure investment planned so far for the Olympiad will contribute only partially to eliminate important infrastructural bottlenecks in the region. Nevertheless the planned infrastructure facilities would have the effect that the new ‘olympia region Leipzig’ would remain attractive also after 2012 as venue for large sport events.
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Fallen risk potential for financial crises and improved perspectives for 2003/2004 in Central and Eastern Europe
Martina Kämpfe, Ibolya Mile
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2003
Abstract
Die aktuellen Berechnungen der Frühwarnindikatorenanalyse ergaben eine Verringerung des Risikopotenzials für Finanzkrisen für alle Volkswirtschaften Mittel- und Osteuropas mit Ausname von Ungarn. Hier hat sich der Konflikt zwischen einer expansiven Fiskalpolitik und einer restriktiven Geldpolitik zuletzt zugespitzt. Die Zunahme des Bruttoinlandsprodukts schwächte sich 2002 ab, lag aber mit Ausnahme von Polen und Tschechien bei über 3%. Dieser Anstieg wurde vorrangig von der Binnennachfrage und weniger vom Export getragen. Im Rahmen der Binnennachfrage nahm der private Konsum durchgängig zu, während der öffentliche Konsum und die Investitionstätigkeit eher uneinheitlich in der Region ausfielen. Für das Jahr 2003 ist insgesamt mit einer leichten Verstärkung des BIP-Zuwachses auf 3,4% in Mitteleuropa und dem Baltikum und 3,7% in Russland zu rechnen. Die Inflation wird sich im laufenden Jahr wegen des Ölpreisanstiegs in den meisten Ländern wieder etwas beschleunigen, im Jahr 2004 dagegen sinken. Im Jahr 2004 wird das Wirtschaftswachstum weiter zunehmen.
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A Projection of Future Productivity Growth Potentials in the Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries Manufacturing Sector
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2003
Abstract
The assessment of future economic development in EU accession candidates critically depends on future productivity growth. A projection of future productivity growth in manufacturing industry can make use of experience from other countries developments in the course of their integration into the European Union.
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IWH Economic Outlook 2003: Waiting for the Upswing in Germany - Waiting for Godot?
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
The outlook forecasts the economic developments in the world, the Euro Area and Germany in 2003. A general tendency is given for 2004. The world economy and the US-economy are recovering in 2003 and so are providing positive impulses for the Euro Area. For Germany this impetus from abroad will most likely remain the sole driving force for the revival of economic activity in 2003. Still this external stimulus will not be able to develop its full strength, as the newly restrictive fiscal policy will lower disposable income. At the earliest the economic upturn will gain strength in the summer months. This results in an initially increased burden on the labour market and only in 2004 will a decline in unemployment be observable, albeit at a slow pace. In economic terms, the recent interest rate cut by the ECB should only be able to show modest effects. Fiscal Policy in 2003 will be distinctly restrictive.
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