Do differences in rental rates compensate for unequal living conditions?
Dominik Weiß
M. T. W. Rosenfeld, D. Weiß (Hrsg.), Gleichwertigkeit der Lebensverhältnisse zwischen Politik und Marktmechanismus. Empirische Befunde aus den Ländern Sachsen. Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen,
2010
Abstract
Equality of living conditions is a politically institutionalized goal in Germany. Due geographical inequality in income levels and in the availability of services in the area of “subsistence support”, politicians are claiming the necessity of intervention to overcome regional disparities. However, actual implementation of the goal of equality seems to be increasingly difficult in view of current migration tendencies and demographic developments. This article starts with the theory of geographical balances and analyzes the extent to which rental rates in the market process reflect regional differences in income and amenities.
Read article
Von der politischen zur demographischen Transformation: Ostdeutschland am Scheideweg
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Empirische und theoretische Analysen aktueller wirtschafts- und finanzpolitischer Fragestellungen,
2009
Abstract
The composition of population in East Germany has strongly changed since the political transformation process. The development is pushed, apart from the specific fertility and mortality behavior, by a persistent migration loss in the last 20 years. This migration deficit of East Germany has accumulated to 1.9 million people. Against this background, the article analyses the risk of demographic change to the potential regional development.
However, a further drastic decrease in population is probable due to missing births. In a short perspective, the contraction of the employed persons increases the capital intensity and thus the productivity of a region. In the long run, it comes to a lasting decrease of the labour supply. Therefore, the impact of demography on the East German development is uncertain.
Read article
Out-migration and Regional Convergence
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
20 Jahre Deutsche Einheit - Teil 1 -
2009
Abstract
Since 1989, the migration deficit of East Germany has accumulated to 1.8 million people. Against this background, the contribution analyses the relationship between regional migration and regional growth. From a theoretical point of view, one might find reasons in favour and in opposition to a convergence supporting function of migration. If migrants are taken from the upper tail of the human capital distribution of a poor region, divergence is the probable outcome. If on the other hand people with low human capital endowment move to richer regions, migration might enhance regional convergence.
The empirical analysis how regional migration and convergence are interrelated is performed on the basis of German districts within a period from 1995 to 2006. The concept of ß-convergence is applied and a cross-section model controlling for spatial correlation between the error terms is estimated.
The results indicate convergence on the regional level; East German regions seem to catch up particularly fast. The effect of migration is twofold. Out-migration from poor region is correlated with strong growth in these regions. However, the corresponding migration towards richer region is accompanied with growth in these regions, too. Therefore, the impact of migration on convergence is uncertain. Nevertheless, the outcome is in favour of an aggregate benefit of migration if people move from poor to rich regions.
Read article
The Long Way to Convergence
Rolf Scheufele, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
20 Jahre Deutsche Einheit - Teil 1 -
2009
Abstract
After nearly 20 years of economic development in unified Germany, East German states compared to the West German Leander still lag behind in terms of welfare. During the years immediately following unification, East Germany displayed high economic growth, but lost its relative strength largely in recent times. Therefore, this paper asks whether East Germany is still catching up in terms of per capita output. By considering the cross- section of German states, one can estimate an average convergence speed of approximately 2% per year. However, this catching-up process is partly driven by demographic effects and by migration from East to West Germany. If one considers a time series test of convergence, a catching-up process can still be identified, although the speed is lower and estimated to be around 1%. This implies that the convergence process of East Germany will need further decades until the regional gap will be closed.
Read article
Returning to East Germany: Labour Market Success Reduces Re-migration Potential
D. Wiest, Lutz Schneider, Alexander Kubis
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
In the public debate, the brain drain from East Germany is supposed to be the most critical trend regarding the development and catching-up of the New Länder. Therefore, potential for in- and re-migration has attracted much attention at least in the political context. Our contribution analyses the re-migration potential on the basis of data from a DFG research project focusing on the re-migration intentions of people formerly emigrated from Saxony-Anhalt. The analysis concentrates on two aspects: firstly on the effect of job market success after emigration; secondly on the impact of social ties in the origin and the host region on the re-migration potential. The econometric results confirm the expected effects: On the one hand, an individual’s job market success in the target region reduces the re-migration potential. Likewise, the re-migration potential increases for people whose former expectations were disappointed. On the other hand, the analysis shows the relevance of social ties to the region of origin for re-migration potential.
Read article
Are there Gender-specific Preferences for Location Factors? A Grouped Conditional Logit-model of Interregional Migration Flows in Germany
Lutz Schneider, Alexander Kubis
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 5,
2009
Abstract
The article analyses the question whether women and men differ in their tastes for location factors. The question is answered by quantifying the impact of location characteristics on interregional migration flows across Germany. The analysis is based on a grouped conditional logit approach. We augment the framework by controlling for violation of the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption and for overdispersion. As a result, we find no differences in terms of direction of impact. However, the regressions confirm gender differences in terms of intensity, particularly regarding regional wage levels and the availability of educational institutions.
Read article
Migration Potential of East German Regions
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
The study analyses the attractiveness of East German regions as destination for inter-regional movements. We found remarkable migration flows towards East Germany even from the Western part. Urban centres particularly benefit from substantial migration inflows. But also some peripheral regions are able to attract considerable in-migration if they provide superior natural beauty and/or cultural institutions.
Read article
In Focus: Migration Behaviour of East Germans
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2008
Abstract
During the transition period, East Germany faced a strong out-migration towards the western part of Germany. Between 1989 and 2006, the net loss of internal migration in East Germany accumulated to 1.7 million people. Regarding the age distribution of these internal migration flows, it is shown that the net losses are primarily – over 50% – caused by young people aged 18 to 30 years. Besides the most important trend of East-West-migration, substantial regional differences can be observed. In the 1990s, the surrounding areas of large cities in East Germany benefited from suburbanisation. Afterwards, this trend has come to an end so that agglomerations in East Germany currently experience in-migration. However, peripheral regions faced strong negative net migration rates during the entire transition period.
Read article
Determinants of Female Migration – The Case of German NUTS 3 Regions
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 12,
2007
Abstract
Our study examines the regional patterns and determinants of migration flows of young women. At the NUTS-3 regional level, i.e. the district level (Kreise), the German internal migration flows of the year 2005 are explored. From descriptive statistics it can be seen that peripheral regions in East Germany face the strongest migration deficit with respect to young women, whereas agglomerations in West Germany but also in the East benefit from an intense migration surplus within this group. An econometric analysis of determinants of regional migration flows gives evidence of the importance of labour market, family-related and educational migration motives. Generally speaking, young women tend to choose regions with good income and job opportunities, in addition they seem to be attracted by regions enabling an appropriate balance between family and career. Furthermore the existence of excellent educational facilities is a significant influence for young women’s migration. This educationally motivated type of migration generates a long lasting effect on the regional migration balance, especially when the educational opportunities in the destination region are associated with adequate career perspectives for high qualified female graduates. In view of considerable losses due to migration, the study shows various options for action. An important course of action is to incorporate policy measures improving regional employment and income opportunities. Secondly, extending vocational and academic offers addressed to women seems to be a suitable way to stimulate women’s immigration. Moreover, enhancing the social infrastructure, which contributes to a satisfactory work life balance, might attract young women or at least reduce the number of them leaving a region.
Read article
„Where Have All the Young Girls Gone …?” Regional Analysis of Young Women’s Migration Behavior
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
The study examines the patterns and determinants of migration flows of young women at the age between 18 and 30 years. At the NUTS-3 regional level, i.e. the district level (Kreise), the German internal migration flows of the year 2005 are explored. From descriptive statistics it can be seen that peripheral regions in East Germany face the strongest migration deficit with respect to young women, whereas agglomerations in West Germany but also in the East benefit from an intense migration surplus within this group. The econometric analysis of determinants of regional migration flows emphasizes the importance of economic, family-related and educational migration motives. Generally speaking, young women tend to choose regions with good income and job opportunities. In addition, they seem to be attracted by regions enabling an appropriate balance between family and career. Furthermore, the existence of excellent educational facilities is a significant pull factor regarding young female migration. This educationally motivated type of migration generates an enduring effect on the regional balance of migration, which is especially true if the educational opportunities in the target region are associated with adequate career perspectives for highly qualified female graduates. In terms of recommendations for action, the study underlines the importance of policy measures improving the regional job and income opportunities. Secondly, the upgrading of fields of study mainly chosen by women seems to be a suitable way to stimulate female immigration. Moreover, the enhancement of the social infrastructure, which promotes a satisfactory work life balance, might attract young women or at least reduce the number of them leaving the region.
Read article