Climate Change-Related Regulatory Risks and Bank Lending
Isabella Müller, Eleonora Sfrappini
ECB Working Paper,
No. 2670,
2022
Abstract
We identify the effect of climate change-related regulatory risks on credit real-location. Our evidence suggests that effects depend borrower's region. Following an increase in salience of regulatory risks, banks reallocate credit to US firms that could be negatively impacted by regulatory interventions. Conversely, in Europe, banks lend more to firms that could benefit from environmental regulation. The effect is moderated by banks' own loan portfolio composition. Banks with a portfolio tilted towards firms that could be negatively a affected by environmental policies increasingly support these firms. Overall, our results indicate that financial implications of regulation associated with climate change appear to be the main drivers of banks' behavior.
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13.04.2022 • 8/2022
From Pandemic to Energy Crisis: Economy and Politics under Permanent Stress
The German economy is steering through difficult waters and faces the highest inflation rates in decades. In their spring report, the leading German economic research institutes revise their outlook for this year significantly downward. The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is slowing down as a result of the war in Ukraine, but remains on track. The institutes expect GDP to increase by 2.7% and 3.1% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. In the event of an immediate interruption to Russian gas supplies, a total of 220 billion euros in German economic output would be at risk in both years.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-specific Forecast Errors
Julian Berner, Manuel Buchholz, Lena Tonzer
Abstract
This paper analyses how firm-specific forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011 affect firms’ investment propensity. Understanding how forecast errors affect firm investment behaviour is key to mitigate economic downturns during and after crisis periods in which forecast errors tend to increase. Our findings reveal a negative impact of absolute forecast errors on investment. Strikingly, asymmetries arise depending on the size and direction of the forecast error. The investment propensity declines if the realised situation is worse than expected. However, firms do not adjust investment if the realised situation is better than expected suggesting that the uncertainty component of the forecast error counteracts positive effects of unexpectedly favorable business conditions. Given that the fraction of firms making positive forecast errors is higher after the peak of the recent financial crisis, this mechanism can be one explanation behind staggered economic growth and slow recovery following crises.
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27.09.2018 • 18/2018
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2018: Upturn Loses Momentum
Berlin, 27 September – Germany’s leading economics research institutes have downwardly revised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019. They now expect economic output to increase by 1.7 percent in 2018, and not 2.2 percent as forecast in spring. They also scaled back their 2019 forecast slightly from 2.0 to 1.9 percent. These are the results of the Joint Economic Forecast for autumn 2018 that will be presented in Berlin on Thursday.
Oliver Holtemöller
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19.04.2018 • 7/2018
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2018: Germany’s Economic Experts Raise Forecast Slightly
Berlin, 19 April – Germany’s leading economic experts raised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019 slightly in their Spring Joint Economic Forecast released on Thursday in Berlin. They now expect economic growth of 2.2 percent for this year and 2.0 percent for 2019, versus 2.0 percent and 1.8 percent respectively in their autumn forecast. “The German economy is still booming, but the air is getting thinner as unused capacities are shrinking“, notes Timo Wollmershaeuser, ifo Head of Economic Forecasting. Commenting on the new German government’s economic policy, he adds: “It is precisely when the government’s coffers are full that fiscal policy should reflect the implications of its actions for overall economic stability and the sustainability of public finances. The extension of statutory pension benefits outlined in the coalition agreement runs counter to the idea of sustainability.”
Oliver Holtemöller
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29.09.2016 • 40/2016
Joint Economic Forecast: German Economy on Track – Economic Policy needs to be Realigned
Thanks to a stable job market and solid consumption, the German economy is experiencing a moderate upswing. The GDP is expected to increase by 1.9 percent this year, 1.4 percent in 2017, and 1.6 percent in 2018, according to the Gemeinschaftsdiagnose (GD, joint economic forecast) that was prepared by five of Europe’s leading economic research institutes on behalf of the Federal Government. The most recent GD, which was released in April, predicted a GDP growth rate of 1.6 percent for 2016 and 1.5 percent for 2017.
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24.06.2016 • 26/2016
UK’s “No” to EU will be costly for both sides
On Thursday 23rd, the British people have decided to leave the European Union (EU) Their vote not to remain in the European community was surprisingly clear. UK’s exit will have both political and economic consequences which are far-reaching for the country itself as well as the rest of Europe. “The reactions of the remaining member states are the crucial key now, especially France’s and Germany’s” says Reint E. Gropp, President of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association.
Reint E. Gropp
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Climate Change and Corporate Innovation Processes
Wilfried Ehrenfeld
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2012
Abstract
This discussion paper provides the contextual framework of the cumulative disser-tation on “Climate Change and Corporate Innovation Processes” at the Technical University of Dresden. It consists of six already published papers and articles. Because of the present public discussion on climate change, European industrial companies face new requirements. This mainly includes new claims, which are imposed on them by the enterprises’ operational environment. One way to respond to these new claims is adaptation through innovation. The overall objective of this thesis is to investigate how the perception of climate change on the part of stakeholders affects corporate innovation processes. In this context, these issues are examined both theoretically and empirically. The thesis thus contributes to various literary strands in the area of “entrepreneurial strategies for adapting to climate change.”
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CO2-Navigator – ein Softwaretool zur Unterstützung von Investitionsoptionen zur Emissionsreduktion und zum Management von Klimarisiken
Edeltraud Günther, G. Weber, M. Nowack, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Klimaschutz und Anpassung an die Klimafolgen: Strategien, Maßnahmen und Anwendungsbeispiele,
2009
Abstract
Global warming and increased climate policies are associated with risks for many companies, but also with opportunities.The chair of Business Administration, esp. Environmental Management at the TU Dresden and the Halle Institute for Economic Research studied the question of how companies can deal with these challenges funded by the BMBF project “Corporate Management under the Constraints of Climate Change Policy (CO2 Navigator)“.Specific concern of the project network was to provide companies assistance to develop a) potential emission reduction strategies and medium-term adjustments to changing environmental conditions, b) assess the economic impact and c) derive decisions for practical use on this basis.The core elements of the research, risk management and assessment of adaptation strategies with the real option approach and the CO2-Navigator software resulting from the project are described in this article.
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