03.12.2015 • 44/2015
Migration Affects Labour Market in Eastern Germany
Migration increasingly affects the labour market in Eastern Germany, having effects on employment and unemployment figures as well as the number of recipients of social assistance benefits under the SGB II regulations. Particularly with countries in Middle and Eastern Europe, countries affected by the European debt and confidence crisis and with people seeking asylum, there are large increases meeting the dimensions in Western Germany. However, migrants overall still form a significantly smaller percentage of the population and other labour market parameters in Eastern Germany, since migration was a lot stronger in Western Germany during the last decades. While on the short run negative effects on unemployment have to be expected, there are also chances, in the medium- and long-term, to soften the expectable demographic problems, if integration and qualification are supported.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions
Alexander Kriwoluzky, G. J. Müller, M. Wolf
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 18,
2015
Abstract
Membership in a currency union is not irreversible. Exit expectations may emerge during sovereign debt crises, because exit allows countries to reduce their liabilities through a currency redenomination. As market participants anticipate this possibility, sovereign debt crises intensify. We establish this formally within a small open economy model of changing policy regimes. The model permits explosive dynamics of debt and sovereign yields inside currency unions and allows us to distinguish between exit expectations and those of an outright default. By estimating the model on Greek data, we quantify the contribution of exit expectations to the crisis dynamics during 2009 to 2012.
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Socially Gainful Gender Quotas
Walter Hyll, Oded Stark
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,
No. 105,
2014
Abstract
We study the impact of gender quotas on the acquisition of human capital. We assume that individuals’ formation of human capital is influenced by the prospect of landing high-pay top positions, and that these positions are regulated by gender-specific quotas. In the absence of quotas, women consider their chances of getting top positions to be lower than men’s. The lure of top positions induces even men of relatively low ability to engage in human capital formation, whereas women of relatively high ability do not expect to get top positions and do not therefore engage in human capital formation. Gender quotas discourage men who are less efficient in forming human capital, and encourage women who are more efficient in forming human capital. We provide a condition under which the net result of the institution of gender quotas is an increase in human capital in the economy as a whole.
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Impact of Personal Economic Environment and Personality Factors on Individual Financial Decision Making
S. Prinz, G. Gründer, R. D. Hilgers, Oliver Holtemöller, I. Vernaleken
Frontiers in Decision Neuroscience,
No. 158,
2014
Abstract
This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version). Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor “source of funding”: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships) had much higher rates of relative risk aversion (RRA) than subjects with support from family (ΔRRA = 0.22; p = 0.018). Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the intelligence quotient significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors “agreeableness” and “openness” showed moderate to modest – but significant – effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.
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Selektivität, soziale Bindung und räumliche Mobilität - Eine Analyse der Rückkehrpräferenz nach Ostdeutschland
Lutz Schneider, Alexander Kubis, D. Wiest
Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsgeographie,
No. -1,
2011
Abstract
Selectivity, social ties and spatial mobility. An analysis of preferences for return migration to East Germany. In the public debate, brain drain from East Germany is supposed to be the most critical trend regarding the development and catching up of the New Länder. Therefore, potential for in- and re-migration has attracted much attention at least in the political context. Our contribution analyses the remigration potential on basis of data from a DFG research project focussing on the re-migration intentions of people formerly emigrated from Saxony-Anhalt. The analysis concentrates on the following aspects: the effect of job market success after emigration; the impact of social ties to the origin and the host region and on the selectivity of re-migration preferences. The econometric results confirm several expected effects: On the one hand an individual’s job market success reduces the intention to return. Likewise, the re-migration preference increases for people whose expectations were disappointed. On the other hand, the relevance of social ties to the origin region for re-migration dispositions is confirmed by the estimations. Yet, regarding selectivity of re-migration preferences in terms of human capital econometric results are somewhat ambiguous.
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Old Age Poverty and Satisfaction with Living Conditions in East and West Germany, 1995 and 2009
L. J. Zhu, Anja Weißenborn, Herbert S. Buscher
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
The current contribution presents poverty indicators for West and East Germany for the years 1995 and 2009. The analysis is based on the two corresponding waves of the GSOEP. We only consider households with at least one senior citizen aged 65 or above. Furthermore, we distinguish between male and female pensioners. In the first part the weighted equivalized household income is calculated as well as various statistical measures such as the 20%- and 80%-percentile, the 80/20-ratio and the 90/10-ratio of the income distribution of senior citizen households. In an additional step we also present and discuss the main sources of income such households have. In the second part of the contribution we focus on social indicators with respect to the satisfaction with income and the current living conditions as well as the expected situation in five years. As the results show, old age poverty has increased in both parts in Germany with East German women being an exception. With respect to the future, most elder people look optimistically into the future.
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Selectivity, Social Ties and Spatial Mobility – An Analysis of Preferences for Return Migration
Lutz Schneider, Alexander Kubis, D. Wiest
Abstract
In the public debate, the brain drain from East Germany is supposed to be the most critical trend regarding the development and catching-up of the New Länder. Therefore, potential for in- and re-migration has attracted much attention at least in the political context. Our contribution analyses the re-migration potential on the basis of data from a DFG research project focussing on the re-migration intentions of people formerly emigrated from Saxony-Anhalt. The analysis concentrates on the following aspects: the effect of job market success after emigration; the impact of social ties to the origin and the host region and on the selectivity of
re-migration preferences. The econometric results confirm several expected effects: On the one hand an individual’s job market success reduces the intention to return. Likewise, the re-migration preference increases for people whose expectations were disappointed. On the other hand, the relevance of social ties to the origin region for re-migration dispositions is confirmed by the estimations. Yet, regarding selectivity of re-migration preferences in terms of human capital econometric results are somewhat ambiguous.
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Immigration to East Germany: Last chance 2011
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
Due to population ageing and shrinking Germany – particularly East Germany – experiences a demographic constellation causing remarkable economic and social problems. One option to cope with the demography based challenges is immigration. In a historical part the article firstly illustrates the history of immigration in Germany during the 20th century and concludes that substantial immigration initially occurred in the 1950th in the Western part of Germany when the so called “Gastarbeiter” were attracted to the West German labour market. Regions in East Germany, instead, show a rather low share of immigrants – a result of the GDR immigration policy that permitted only a low level of temporary migration.
However, prospects of success to stimulate immigration to East Germany seem to be rather limited. Firstly, since 2000 Germany as a whole faces reducing immigration numbers. Secondly, the low immigration experience and density of foreigners’ networks could torpedo existing immigration potentials. The sole opportunity for improving the migration balance seems to be the immigration from Central Eastern European regions. Spatial proximity might compensate for lacking migration incentives and initiate substantial migration flows towards East Germany. Yet, one should not have to high expectation regarding the dimension of immi-gration from Central Eastern Europe. Large parts of the migratory population already moved to other EU member states that implemented the Freedom of Movement for Workers immediately after 2004. Therefore, it seems to be crucial to stay away from every supplementary regulation that might discourage potential labour market migrants from Central East Europe after May 2011.
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Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? An Evaluation Study for East Germany
Eva Dettmann, Jutta Günther
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 21,
2009
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the formally equal qualifications acquired during a subsidized vocational education induce equal employment opportunities compared to regular vocational training. Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function, we are able to control for selection effects resulting from different personal and profession-related characteristics, and thus, to identify an unbiased effect of the public support. Besides the ‘total effect’ of support, it is of special interest if the effect is stronger for subsidized youths in external training compared to persons in workplace-related training. The analysis is based on unique and very detailed data, the Youth Panel of the Halle Centre for Social Research (zsh).
The results show that young people who successfully completed a subsidized vocational education are disadvantaged regarding their employment opportunities even when controlling for personal and profession-related influences on the employment prospects. Besides a quantitative effect, the analysis shows that the graduates of subsidized training work in slightly worse (underqualified) and worse paid jobs than the adolescents in the reference group. The comparison of both types of subsidized vocational training, however, does not confirm the expected stronger effect for youths in external vocational education compared to workplace-related training.
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Returning to East Germany: Labour Market Success Reduces Re-migration Potential
D. Wiest, Lutz Schneider, Alexander Kubis
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
In the public debate, the brain drain from East Germany is supposed to be the most critical trend regarding the development and catching-up of the New Länder. Therefore, potential for in- and re-migration has attracted much attention at least in the political context. Our contribution analyses the re-migration potential on the basis of data from a DFG research project focusing on the re-migration intentions of people formerly emigrated from Saxony-Anhalt. The analysis concentrates on two aspects: firstly on the effect of job market success after emigration; secondly on the impact of social ties in the origin and the host region on the re-migration potential. The econometric results confirm the expected effects: On the one hand, an individual’s job market success in the target region reduces the re-migration potential. Likewise, the re-migration potential increases for people whose former expectations were disappointed. On the other hand, the analysis shows the relevance of social ties to the region of origin for re-migration potential.
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